NBA: Dominant point guards and their disappearing act

Dominant point guards are beginning to diesappear as the NBA continues to evolve

Once upon a time, the NBA was in a point guard revolution. The game started to fade away from dominant big men and wing scorers, shifting into having more and more ball dominant point guards.

We all watched in amazement as the point guard surplus produced many great players. Some are still relevant today, like Russell Westbrook, Stephen Curry, Damian Lillard, Kyrie Irving. However, other point guard pioneers like Derrick Rose have found themselves at the end of their careers.

This trend to have such a ball dominant point guard is starting to fade further and further into nonexistence. In my theory, I believe that ball dominant point guards will become almost extinct in 10 years. The game is just evolving more than ever. It’s only a matter of time before these smaller, ball dominant dynamic lead guards are going to be just bench assets.

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In order to prove this theory let’s take a look at the previous draft. Most recently, the 2017 NBA Draft featured five point guards selected in the top 10 selections. The first and No. 1 overall pick in the draft, Markelle Fultz, was drafted as a complimentary scorer next to Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid. Just because Simmons averages 7.6 assists a game does not mean he’s a point guard. At 6-foot-10, Ben Simmons fits into the point forward positional archetype.

The Philadelphia 76ers are an extremely modern NBA team. They are led by there do it all big man Joel Embiid. Embiid currently has a usage rate of 33.4 percent which is the third highest in the NBA. Simmons has the second highest usage rate on the team at 22.7 percent. The NBA is coming to an age where more and more players are like Embiid and Simmons.

Players that are 6-foot-8 and 7-foot plus that would never dream to ever shoot a jumpshot are now excellent three point shooters. Along with being able to put the ball on the floor, and have great court vision as well.

Currently, this NBA season, there are at least nine players in the top 25 in assists per game that don’t classify as point guards. These players are James Harden, LeBron James, Ben Simmons, Draymond Green, Nikola Jokic, Blake Griffin, Nicolas Batum, DeMarcus Cousins, and Kevin Durant.

If you turn back the clock to just three years ago, the NBA only featured five non point guards that were in the top 25. Out of those five, only three are still on this years list (LeBron, Harden, and Blake Griffin). Going back even farther to five years ago there was only three non point guards in the top 25. Out of those three, only one is still a current NBA player (LeBron).

So what do all these stats tell you other than LeBron is awesome? It should help you realize the NBA is evolving. The forwards, bigmen, and wings are becoming more and more skilled. Teams want to build around their dominant big men like Joel Embiid, Karl Anthony-Towns, or even DeAndre Ayton next season.

Teams also want to build around wing creators and point forwards like Ben Simmons, James Harden, and Giannis Antetokounmpo. CBS Sports just put out an ”Under-25 NBA Draft” where they select the top players under 25 years old in the NBA. In other words, they select the games future stars. If you look at this link and the list you will see an odd pattern. There’s only one true point guard (Lonzo Ball). A case could be made for Jamal Murray, but even so that’s two point guards in the entire NBA under 25 years old.

Now let’s take a look at some future NBA players that aren’t even in the league yet., since I do specialize in NBA draft coverage. In my last big board I released, there are only two point guards ranked in the lottery. The first point guard is Trae Young, who is a player that I think could be a revolutionary player or he could also be the next Aaron Brooks with better vision. Which isn’t a slight but given the odds it’s more likely Young is closer to the latter.

Colin Sexton has an outstanding work ethic and will have a role in the NBA, but he’s never going to be a dominant player on a great team.

Even the incoming crop of 2019 college freshman feature no point guards that will be dominant NBA players. Instead the 2019 draft class is filled with wings and forwards like R.J. Barrett, Zion Williamson, Cam Reddish, Sekou Doumbouya, and I’ll even throw in Bol Bol (who I’m not high on). Even though I have not scouted many 2020 guys you will notice the same pattern. Going off the ESPN Top 60 rankings of high school juniors follows the same pattern. Zero of the top 5 players in the class are point guards.

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The NBA is evolving, and turning away from these dominant point guards. Eventually, the point guard position will become just a supporting role. Whether that role be instant offense off the bench. Becoming a three and d player like many other current NBA role players. Or they could just become common back up point guards, and fit into a secondary ball handler role.

There will obviously always be a few outliers in this theory, but for the most part expect the point guard position to look a lot less like Russell Westbrook, John Wall, and Damian Lillard. Instead, expect it to look like Markelle Fultz and Tomas Satornasky, and George Hill type players.