Kawhi Leonard: How the money and the injury will determine his future
By David Early
Playoff Scenarios
The San Antonio Spurs fan dream would be The Spurs fall to a 7th seed and take on Golden State in the first round without Steph Curry. The Claw comes back and they eliminate the defending champs while they’re most vulnerable.
I think a clear path towards the Finals like that one falling into their laps might make all involved much more comfortable with higher levels of risk and even aggravating a vicious recurring injury. Otherwise, they may revisit him returning depending on if they win a series and would weigh the pros and cons presented with each series.
As of today, they could finish anywhere from a 4 to an 8 seed, with a 4th or 5th being more likely per 538. The better things look, the more likely it becomes that he’d give it a shot. If, for example, they won a tough series without him, or say, James Harden went down with injury also, it would have to be pretty tempting to increase the risk-tolerance, as Daryl Morey might say.
Prediction: Kawhi comes back if they played a Curry-less Golden State in round one, and could see a clear path to the Finals. Otherwise, they will take on a team like OKC or Minnesota without him and then reassess. The clearer the path to the Finals becomes, the more everyone will feel willing to gamble.
Or possibly if they found themselves down 2-1 or 3-2 in a critical, winnable series a competitive instinct could kick in. In this instance, maybe the Spurs make a gentlemen’s agreement and promise him the contract. People think they did that with Pau Gasol recently.