2018 NBA Playoffs: 8 X-Factors to keep an eye on in the first-round

Carmelo Anthony, Oklahoma City Thunder 

Another unusually big name for one of these lists, but please bear with me. His fall from grace recently, makes this one work I think.

Many Knicks fans rejoiced at the departure of Carmelo Anthony last fall. Even his biggest fans were happy for him to be freed from the barn-yard like atmosphere that had become Madison Square Garden’s team culture. While casual fans may have considered the Thunder a superteam, uniting Paul George, Russel Westbrook and Anthony, die-hards knew to at least temper expectations a bit. How would it work?

Few objective people, however, may have seen such a precipitous dip in production from Anthony, though. It’s been sad for some, wickedly delightful for others, and at least a little confusing for all:

But let’s keep things in perspective. Anthony was already declining in New York. And would have continued to, even in his ball-dominant role back east. Russell Westbrook is hard to play with. Recall he and Kevin Durant feuding in crunch time of big games, and Durant citing how “selfless” and “fun” his new teammates were. Westbrook’s response was simply: “cute.”

Victor Oladipo might be able to attest. He’s seen a meteoric rise in USG rating since leaving Westbrook’s side.

Learning to give up the ball and play in not only a secondary, but a tertiary role has been historically hard for high-profile players. Remember Kevin Love and Chris Bosh’s infamous production-dips when they joined LeBron James in Cleveland and Miami, respectively. But both of them were 26. Anthony is already 33. It’s hard enough to teach an old dog new tricks, what happens when the new tricks require being agile and explosive?

Assuming Anthony just stinks now because he’s old would mean we need to believe that learning a new role at 33, would have come effortlessly to him. More likely there are some feedback loops happening here. He probably needed more time to learn and adjust than an impatient public, or the ticking clock of Paul George’s upcoming free agency was willing to give him.

Some statistics suggest there may be a simple answer: he and Westbrook haven’t found a way to play together yet.

[via Washington Post]

"“In the 513 minutes the team has played with Westbrook on the floor and Anthony on the bench, according to NBAWowy, Oklahoma City has an offensive rating of 111.1 and a defensive rating of 101.5, which would rank fifth and second, respectively, if maintained over an entire season. The team currently ranks ninth in both metrics,”"

That’s not good. But before we blame Melo’s crappy defense, or inability to knock down an efficient clip of his shots, there’s more to think about.

The same article includes this table. It spells out a very compelling case to bring Anthony off the bench to maximize the team’s minutes. I don’t believe he’s shot. And I don’t believe he’s an All-Star anymore. But I think if his coach would find a way to

force him

convince him to come off the bench, this Thunder team has another gear. There he gets to play more with the ball and stem the bleeding you’d expect when Westbrook sits.

Coach Billy Donovan might fairly counter that if he can manage the big personalities of his stars, and allow Anthony the nominal distinction of starting, he can still employ him in bench-units and stagger his and Westbrook’s minutes. But he needs even more. Melo is going to have to take advantage of bench-units defending him, while also fully acclimate to his off-the-ball role since Wesbtrook may not sit much now that it’s the playoffs.

If he can, the team has the potential to make the Conference Finals. If he can’t, they could lose as early as the first round. Would that lead to Paul George leaving for greener pastures? If so the future in OKC might look about as bright as the Detroit Pistons pretty soon.

No pressure, Melo…