2018 NBA Playoffs: 8 X-Factors to keep an eye on in the first-round

P.J. Tucker, Houston Rockets 

Recently, Rockets President Daryl Morey said there are no publicly available stats that can tell you if a player is a good defender. So how do we know if a guy is good? Well, based on the body of work that Morey now has put together, one gauge might simply be “because Morey wanted him.”

Remember when Houston traded the 8th pick in the 2006 NBA Draft, Rudy Gay, for Shane Battier? Daryl Morey was the newly hired Assistant General Manager at the time, under Carrol Dawson. Looking back on it and the way I saw the league at the time, Shane was a “fine” “character” “glue guy” from Duke. NBA fan code for “meh.”

There wasn’t the excitement or promise that came with the 8th overall pick. What if Gay turned into a Hall-of-Famer? But as we have learned more about statistics, impact, and how many variables exist in measuring value in the NBA, we learned that there may be some “No Stats All-Stars” out there, like Shane Battier. Today we might talk about Shane’s versatility and ability to contest positions 1-4, while providing elite gravity through spacing because of his shooting touch.

Enter P.J. Tucker, coincidentally drafted 35th overall by Toronto that same day Battier became a Rocket. Only left with public data to make my case which Morey might rightly skoff at, I’ll defer a bit to folks smarter than me. Chris Herring at 538 notes how Houston has been dominant defensively this year. Only five teams have had a higher defensive efficiency rating.

Here’s another publicly available stats: In 309 possessions this year, where P.J. Tucker, who is just 6-foot-5, has played center, the Rockets have a 137.5 ORTG and a +36.2 Net RTG. For context, the best ORTG of the year belongs to The Warriors and theres is only 112.3. Houston’s overall is 112.2. Basically, if Coach Mike D’Antoni sees an opening to run some “Tuckwagon” lineups, as they call these small-ball units in Texas, they’re going to blitz you out of the gym. His Netrtg is 10.8, higher than even James Harden‘s.

Tucker isn’t the only reason for all of this. Houston has added Chris Paul who’s no slouch and made 6 consecutive All-NBA Defensive teams. You can read that again if you like. Trevor Ariza has been a tremendous player (and champion) since Isiah Thomas made him a second round pick back in 2005. And Ariza finally has help. Rangy and disruptive forward Luc Mbah a Moute has been instrumental in these unique Tuckwagon lineups as well. But with his shoulder injury keeping him out for at least the first round vs. Minnesota, even more pressure will be placed on Tucker.

For all the “Rocket science” (pun very much intended) that likely goes into team building by Morey, and creative thinking by Mike D’Antoni, the team’s finished product appears startingly simple: utilize versatility on defense and provide lots of room for MVP James Harden to work on offense. But what has made them so dominant this year is that the defense actually works, without detracting from the three-point barrage that makes them special.

Can the Rockets maintain defensive effectiveness without Mbah a Moute? Who gets his minutes of Eric Gordon, Ryan Anderson, Joe Johnson or Gerald Green? Gerald may offer the best defense, but certainly the least scoring. There will be plenty to answer without their Cameroonian stopper and floor-spacer, Mbah a Moute. But P.J. Tucker, averaging just 6.1 points and 5.6 and shooting 37 percent on his three pointers is going to need to be Houston’s new Shane Battier, the “No Stats All-Star.”

Can they run anymore Tuckwagon without Mbah a Moute? Can Tucker continue to help lead this defense, especially when anchor Clint Capela takes a rest? I’m very curious to know with Jimmy Butler and Karl-Anthony Towns coming to town.