New Orleans Pelicans: Is this the year Anthony Davis wins a playoff series?

New Orleans Pelicans’ Anthony Davis has been dragging his team to playoff contention every year. Now that he’s here for the second time, can he make noise?

Anthony Davis has led New Orleans to the playoffs for the second time as a Pelican. He doesn’€™t care, at least not until New Orleans starts winning playoff games, per a recent interview with ESPN’s Rachel Nichols on The Jump.

"€œNo, it’€™s not. I’€™ve done that before, and nobody talks about it, said Davis to Nichols. €œNobody talks about just making the playoffs. I feel like we can do more."

It’s possible he looks to sign elsewhere in 2020 if the Pelicans can’€™t do more.

More from Sir Charles In Charge

New Orleans ripped off a 5-0 finish to grab the 6-seed in the Western Conference. They will play the Portland Trail Blazers, a solid team, but a beatable one. Winning their last five games allowed New Orleans to avoid the Golden State/Houston buzzsaw in the first round.

Even without their second best player, DeMarcus Cousins, the Pelicans could get to the second round of the playoffs. How much of a chance do they have, though?

Cousins’€™ injury forced the Pelicans to change the way they play. Since Boogie went down, the Pelicans logged a blistering pace of 101.7, according to Basketball Reference. In that time, they generated fast break opportunities off 30.6 percent of defensive rebounds per Cleaning the Glass. They finished the season as the league leaders in pace at 100.5 and 11th in defensive rebounds converted into transition opportunities at 29.4 percent.

Rajon Rondo played 28.4 minutes a night after Cousins’ injury, he averaged around 25 prior. Rondo looks to push the ball on every rebound. He’€™ll get you a few extra points that no other player will. Anthony Davis has grown accustomed to leaking out in transition, knowing Rondo will throw a long pass to him.

Rondo has also found Anthony Davis on several lobs in the half court. The Pelicans have several underrated cutters, and guys like Rondo to hit these cutters on time and on target. This offensive harmony is another reason they are staying afloat without Cousins.

How many of these buckets off cuts and transition pushes are just from catching defenses napping, though? Defenses will wake up in the playoffs. The Pelicans will be best with a creator who’s on-ball actions divert attention away from these cutters.

Rondo is not that player. He cannot collapse the defense onto him with the threat of a jump shot. He allows the defense to go under screens when he has the ball in pick and rolls, a forgivable flaw during his prime that is borderline detrimental to an offense in 2018.

Rondo regained some of the finishing oomph that escaped him in Chicago. He shot a decent 58 percent at the rim and took 46 percent of his shots from within four feet, per Cleaning the Glass. This is nice, but hardly matters considering he averaged only eight drives per game per Second Spectrum data provided by NBA.com, a paltry sum for a guard who averages 69.3 touches a game.

To compare that to the data from the same site of other non-shooting point guards this season, Ricky Rubio averaged 77.2 touches and 11.2 drives per game. Elfrid Payton averaged 65.5 touches and 11.9 drives per game. Out of all starting guards who often have the ball in their hands, only Lonzo Ball and Jamal Murray logged worse ratios. Both Ball and Murray took at least five threes a game. Rondo took less than half that.

This is why Rondo is best when pushing the ball before the defense is set up. He doesnâ€™t have to create openings in transition, merely find them and make a perfect pass. The Pelicans have no choice but to play uptempo for his style of play to work.

Live Feed

NBA Trades: This Mavericks-Pelicans swap would boost Dallas' frontline /

Hoops Habit

NBA Trades: This Pelicans-Raptors deal would send a star to the Big EasyHoops Habit

3 Superstars Pelicans should try to trade Zion Williamson for right nowPelican Debrief

NBA Rumors: Zion's work ethic casts doubt on his future in New OrleansHoops Habit

NBA Rumors: Zion Williamson's days with the Pelicans may be numberedHoops Habit

NBA Trades: 12 stars that will likely change teams by next seasonHoops Habit

Rondo’s offensive limitations would be somewhat forgivable if he wasn’€™t a turnstile on the other end. Whenever put in a pick-and-roll against guard who is faster than him, he will force the Pelicans to play 4 on 5.

Against the Thunder a few weeks ago, he gave little resistance as Russell Westbrook blew by him. Instead of switching onto Steven Adams to try and curb his rolls to the rim, Rondo was content to chill on the perimeter as Davis had the task of defending two opponents.

The Pelicans gave up 0.5 more points per 100 possessions when Rondo played per Cleaning the Glass. This seems fine until one considers that according to Basketball Reference, he played 77 percent of his minutes with Davis and 78 percent of his minutes with Jrue Holiday.

According to Cleaning the Glass, New Orleans gave up 7.5 fewer points per 100 possessions when Davis played, and 9.6 fewer points per 100 possessions when Holiday played. That Rondo didnâ€™t emerge from this season with an above average defensive net rating is head scratching.

There’€™s a good chance that Rondo turns up the defensive effort in the playoffs. We already saw glimpses of an engaged Rondo on defense in New Orleans’€™ crucial game against the Warriors. Rondo checked Kevin Durant with 30 seconds left up two, and picked Durant’s pockets, which led to a transition bucket from E’€™Twaun Moore.

If Rondo can hold his own on defense against Damian Lillard or C.J. McCollum, he still has value as a change of pace bench piece. His style of play really does make the game feel different. He can be used to throw Portland off guard, but it’s easy to neutralize him if he dictates New Orleans’ defacto offense.

The Blazers are prepared to curb transition opportunities. According to Cleaning the Glass, they allowed only 26.2 percent of opponen’€™s defensive rebounds to turn into transition plays, the fifth stingiest mark in the league. They allowed, 109.4 points per 100 possessions in transition plays off of rebounds, trailing only the Wizards, Spurs, Jazz, and Celtics.

They are missing a key transition defender and budding chasedown block artist in Moe Harkless, who will likely miss at least the start of the series. But they still have Al-Farouq Aminu and Evan Turner to disrupt the Pelicans’ gameplan.

Davis might not be afforded the opportunity to brashly leak out on opponent misses. The Blazers have two of the best offensive rebounders in the league in Jusuf Nurkic and Ed Davis. According to Cleaning the Glass, Portland logged an offensive rebound rate in the half court of 27.1 percent, good for seventh best in the league according to Cleaning the Glass. Davis will be tasked with keeping them off the boards.

To have a better chance at a healthy playoff offense, Gentry should play Rondo closer to 20 minutes than 30, and put the ball in Jrue Holiday’€™s hands more. Rondo has allowed Holiday to preserve himself throughout the season, which has helped Holiday have a healthy and productive year on both ends of the floor.

The idea of shifting Holiday to an off-ball role in some lineups is not bad. He is comfortable and successful running off screens and catching the ball on the move. However, any benefit gained by moving Holiday off-ball is probably not worth having to play Rondo for heavy minutes.

Jrue has been efficient in a quasi off-ball role, and still gets opportunities to attack. He scored around 20 points a game and averaged around 12 drives a game, per NBA.com.

More from Sir Charles In Charge

Jrue still has some untapped creation in him, though. Holiday ran fewer pick and rolls per game this season compared to last. He ran 8.8 a game last season according to Second Spectrum Data provided by NBA.com. This season he ran 5.6.

In the 2016-17 season, he attempted 6.1 shots off the dribble per game and 2.9 3’s. He shot a commendable 37.2 percent on off-the-dribble threes. His 3-point shooting off the dribble regressed this season. He took 2.4 3’s off the dribble and made a paltry 28.7 percent. This is a shot he is historically capable of, though, so he should keep firing.

Holiday hitting off the dribble threes will create problems for Portland. They employ a conventional drop coverage when guarding most pick and rolls, and Nurkic is not comfortable hedging and trapping 25 feet away from the hoop. If they force Nurkic to stray from his comfort zone, Davis will have more space to operate when catching the ball on rolls.

It will benefit New Orleans to limit possessions where Davis has to navigate tight spaces. Davis has not seen many double teams thrown his way this season, even with Cousins out. This might change as their first round matchup has more time to gameplan. Davis is a capable passer, but isnâ€™t going to punish double teams in tight spaces like he’s Nikola Jokic.

It’s possible that Davis has a passing gear that we haven’€™t seen yet, and it will be unlocked by being given more space within the offense. E’€™Twaun Moore, Darius Miller, and Nikola Mirotic can provide that spacing.

Miller is the surprising name among this trio, considering he played in Germany last season. He understands his role as a floor spacer, and rarely strays from it. Per Cleaning the Glass, he took 73 percent of his shots from behind the arc this season, and drained 42 percent of them.

Moore has stepped up and became the third most important contributor to their offense with Cousins out. He still has not upped his 3-point shooting volume much from last year, but has been a more active part of the offense.

Moore is an excellent cutter and is skilled at operating in the small gaps around Holiday-Davis pick and rolls. He also has a reliable arsenal of floaters and runners within 14 feet. According to Cleaning the Glass, he shot an impressive 53 percent from between 4 and 14 feet this season.

Moore is also a credible passer, and has good chemistry with Davis. Gentry has done a solid job using sets that leverage the constant alley-oop-finishing threat Anthony Davis. He’€™ll have Moore, Holiday, or Ian Clark, all exceptional from floater range,€“ curl off a screen from Davis, and they will have the option to take a floater, or lob it to Davis for an easy dunk.

Mirotic shot 33.5 percent from 3 upon arriving in New Orleans, but had been shooting 43% from behind the arc this season in Chicago. He’s a streaky shooter who takes tough shots, and is special player when they are falling.

Based on the last five games, it seems like Mirotic is on one of his hot streaks. He has consistently dropped around 20 a game on hyper-efficient shooting to help New Orleans get into the playoffs. When he’s on, he stretches the defense a few feet past the 3-point line. This extra bit of space matters for Holiday and Davis.

While the lineup of Holiday, Moore, Miller, Mirotic, and Davis is likely New Orleans’€™ best look for the playoffs, it only logged 107 possessions together according to Cleaning the Glass. They did not have the luxury of revamping their offense to adjust to how it should be in the playoffs. Every game is important when you’€™re on the playoff bubble, and they couldn’€™t afford the growing pains that come from adjusting. They relied on Rondo to win them games.

New Orleans’ has also not had the luxury of incorporating Solomon Hill back into the rotation. He has only averaged 15 minutes a game despite seeming fully healthy at this point. Many anticipated Hill to work his way into a starting spot upon recovering, but his offensive game has yet to return. Hill has shot 4-21 from behind the arc since returning from injury.

Itâ€™s hard to surmise much about Hill’s 3-point shot, and whether or not it will come back. While he shot an okay percentage last season, he only attempted 3.4 3’s a game.

The New Orleans Pelicans are playing one of the few playoff teams without a premier scorer over 6-foot-€™6. Hill would be tasked with locking down Paul George if they played the Thunder, or Jimmy Butler if they played the Timberwolves. But against the Blazers, they don’€™t need Hill to stay on the floor, even when his shot is not falling.

Holiday is fully equipped to guard Lillard. Moore, Rondo, Miller, and Hill can take turns trying to contain McCollum. No other perimeter player on the Blazers will kill the Pelicans over the course of a seven game series. Nurkic could do some real damage against the Pelicans while Davis sits, though.

Diallo has soaked up the backup center minutes recently, as Emeka Okafor has seen his minutes cut. Diallo is still foul prone, but has done a solid job as an energy big off the bench. He runs to the rim hard and shows flashes of the rim protector he could one day be.

He looks comfortable defending the perimeter. For stretches of their most recent game against Portland a few weeks ago, Diallo guarded Al-Farouq Aminu on the perimeter. This allowed Davis to patrol the paint, maximizing his time as a rim protector.

Must Read: 2018 NBA Playoffs Roundtable: The wild wild West edition

Diallo is also mistake-prone and still gaining weight. Nurkic will power through Diallo and out-jump Okafor for putbacks. It’s possible the Pelicans’ best move when Davis is sitting is to play Mirotic at the 5, let Nurkic eat, and rain threes on Portland on the other end.

New Orleans clearly still has a few conundrums to solve, but have a real opportunity to win Davis his first playoff series. It’s would be easy to use Cousins’€™ absence as an excuse for getting played off the floor. But the Pelicans should look to use this series as an opportunity to show Davis what they could be if Cousins re-signs. If they can’€™t imbue any confidence in Davis this postseason, they only have two more years to.

Home/New Orleans Pelicans