NBA Draft: Is Michael Porter Jr.’s stock aided by boom-or-bust status?

Michael Porter Jr. will be selected early in NBA Draft on Thursday, June 21st. Even though he missed last season, he could still go in the top five

It may seem hard to believe that Michael Porter Jr. could still go as early as second overall in Thursday’s NBA draft. Despite returning for the final two games of his lone season at Missouri, Porter is not out of the woods yet with lingering back troubles that almost kept him from completing a pro day workout after muscle spasms left him bed-bound for hours.

A procedure to repair herniated disks in his back may require another full year of rehab and in some ways it makes him a more enticing product to teams undertaking multi-year rebuilding projects.

Though the procedure that fixed a pair of herniated discs in his back was minimally invasive, it kept Porter sidelined from the third minute of Missouri’s November 10th opener until their final game of the regular season, a mid-March loss to Georgia.

With his only season of post-high school competition essentially erased and concerns of re-aggravating his back looming, speculation has been raised as to whether Porter can regain his old form while acclimating to basketball’s hardest stage.

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That prior self is a 6-foot-10 combo wing with deft perimeter touch and a Sistine Chapel ceiling level of potential. When dominating the prep circuit as a teen, Porter was an irrepressible force that manufactured 36 point, 13.6 rebound averages his senior season at Washington’s Nathan Hale High.

Little more than a year later, with less than 60 minutes logged on the college court, any team that selects the 19-year-old is buying into high school production without supplement. Anfernee Simons, a player with less perceived upside but a similar level of experience after spending an extra year in high school, is projected to go at the end of the first or early second round due, in large part, to a lack of experience.

When Thon Maker was selected tenth by the Bucks in 2016, hoops heads were shocked that a player without any college or international experience could land in the lottery.

Missing the lion’s share of work against the best competition of his career and spinal problems that run an increased risk of re-injury make Porter the riskiest bet in the first round. So why is it rumored that multiple top five teams are still considering investing in Porter with their painfully-earned reward for tanking?

Because Porter is an ideal gamble in today’s diametrically opposed NBA. The 76ers may have been the most notable tank story in recent years, but just about every franchise in the NBA wants to be at the poles of the standings. Either you’re competing for championships or adding ping pong balls for the lottery.

Without multiple blue chip stars there is little hope of competing in an NBA where the coalition of a few elite players can put a stranglehold on the rest of the league (see: Warriors, 2015-2018).

There are two main ways of rising to basketball prominence- by courting established stars in free agency or making multiple visits to the lottery well in search of cornerstone pieces. Veteran talent is unattainable for bottom-feeders without any current studs to help pitch their franchise.

Therefore, tanking rules the day, and it often requires years of dedication to futility. Even then, only the most fortunate and strategic losers can parlay their assets into a title contender.

Enter Michael Porter Jr., a player who may actually be more coveted because his floor is as low as his ceiling is high. If Porter is green and needs time to adjust to life in the NBA, he presents an avenue toward a second losing season and another top pick who can compliment his skill set in 2019-20. If his injuries linger and result in missed time, that means the Kings, Mavericks or Hawks have somewhere to point their fingers when fans demand progress.

And if he lives up to the hype, he could develop into the two way superstar those squads so desperately crave to regain relevance. Before the disk slippage, Porter was a player who many scouts had projected to go first overall. His standing reach is the same as Anthony Davis. His combination of size, handling and shot-creaton have earned comparisons to Kevin Durant.

Given a clean bill of health and a full season under his belt at Mizzou, his hype train would be consuming coal at levels that the EPA would deem illegal.

If he can’t deliver, his red flags lay the framework for a gargantuan flop, and he’s going to fail, his future franchise would rather he do so quickly than become a second contract conundrum in a few years.

After all, teams can always recalibrate and angle for another top selection with the aid of another sub .500 season. The bigger issues are bad contracts and good-not-great players who can only elevate a franchise to hoops purgatory at the back end of the playoff picture. Anything but that.

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Michael Porter Jr. has more question marks than any of consensus his top five counterparts. It might seem more logical to opt for a rim protector like Mo Bamba or Jarren Jackson Jr. or attempt to cash in on Euroleague sensation Luka Doncic.

In a feast or famine league, Porter’s still-lofty status displays a growing appetite for risk.