NBA: Way-too-early predictions for the 2018-19 All-Rookie teams
By Jacob Doole
First team
Luka Doncic, Guard/Forward, Dallas Mavericks
2017-18 stats (EuroLeague/Liga ACB): 14.5 points, 5.2 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 1.1 steals, 2.2 turnovers
Doncic is the best and most NBA-ready player in this rookie class, and he should fit seamlessly into the Mavericks starting lineup.
He and Dennis Smith Jr. will form one of the most exciting young backcourts in the NBA, and his playmaking should allow Smith to thrive in a less ball-dominant role. Coach Rick Carlisle’s offensive system is built around multiple playmakers, and both Doncic and Smith can function on and off the ball.
That means Doncic will immediately see plenty of reps as a ball handler in the pick and roll, as well as operating as a cutter and a spot-up threat. That variety coupled with his offensive versatility should keep defenses from quieting him for long stretches.
Perhaps most importantly, Doncic has played 137 games since September, 2016. Most first-year players hit the “rookie wall” as they adjust to a professional schedule, but Doncic should have no such issues.
His defense, while not fantastic, shouldn’t be as bad as many seem to think, and it will well and truly be offset by outstanding offensive play. Doncic will have a massive role on a Mavericks team that will be looking to push into the playoff race.
Projected 2018-19 stats: 15.8 points, 4.1 rebounds, 5.2 assists, 0.9 steals, 2.9 turnovers
DeAndre Ayton, Center, Phoenix Suns
2017-18 stats: 20.1 points, 11.6 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.9 blocks
It seems inevitable that DeAndre Ayton will be stuffing the stat sheet from day one. He will immediately start for the Suns, and they should be keen to give him as many minutes as he can handle.
Ayton’s offensive game was seen as his biggest draw through the draft process, but it’s his rebounding that should translate straight away. He finished sixth in the nation in rebounding last season (11.6 per game), and his 21.4 rebounding percentage was good for eighth across Division I.
Considering Phoenix’s leading rebounders last season were 35-year-old Tyson Chandler and the now-departed Greg Monroe, Ayton should be encouraged to crash the glass whenever possible.
Offensively, Ayton will slot right in as the second scoring option. He and Devin Booker should be a dangerous combination in the pick-and-roll, as Ayton has the ability to catch and finish at the rim or step out for mid-range jumpers.
The hope is that his range will eventually extend to the NBA three-point line, but even if that takes some time, Ayton has the skills to be a very good scorer as a rookie.
He will need to improve his defensive IQ and awareness, and new coach Igor Kokoskov may struggle to build a respectable defense with he and Booker on the court. However, it’s big numbers that stand out in award season, and Ayton should definitely have them.
Projected 2018-19 stats: 17.8 points, 10.1 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 1.1 blocks
Marvin Bagley III, Forward/Center, Sacramento Kings
2017-18 stats: 21.1 points, 11.1 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.9 blocks
Bagley is far from a guaranteed star at the NBA level, but his college production and likely role make him a safe choice here.
In his lone season at Duke, Bagley won the ACC Player of the Year and was a finalist for the National Player of the Year. His game was mostly built on athleticism and inside scoring, as he dominated teams inside the paint.
He made the third-most two-point field goals in the nation, and shot 61.4 per cent from the field. He will make his living inside the arc in the NBA as well, and he has the skills and touch to be an effective player around the rim.
However, he should be able to showcase his skills on the perimeter more at the next level. The increased spacing of the NBA should allow Bagley to use his solid handles and quickness to beat bigger defenders off the dribble, and his decent shooting on limited attempts (39.7 per cent from three) mean he should at least be a threat from the mid-range.
Bagley’s lack of a defined position and defensive shortcomings might lower his ceiling and hinder the Kings in the short term. However, he will be given plenty of opportunities in his rookie season, and his production should reflect that.
Projected 2018-19 stats: 17.4 points, 9.1 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.6 blocks