NBA: Has the 2018-19 MVP already been decided?

Recently, the NBA MVP award has been given to the player with the most compelling narrative. Does that mean LeBron James is a lock to win it in 2018-19?

There is an overwhelming pattern which indicates that narratives are the number one criteria towards determining who wins the NBA MVP award. A prime example of this is the narrative that Russell Westbrook should have been awarded the 2017 NBA MVP because subpar players surrounded him once Kevin Durant left.

According to Tim Cato of SBNation:

"Russell deserved to win the MVP award because Oklahoma City was “so singularly reliant on Westbrook’s skills to make everything else on their team properly tick.”"

He proceeded to state that the team was outscored by 10 points per 100 possessions with Westbrook on the bench. However, the statistic provided by Tim was misleading because the Oklahoma City Thunder would often rest their second ball handler in Victor Oladipo at the same time as Westbrook.

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According to Basketball-Reference, Oladipo was only on the floor by himself for 126:15 minutes out of 2221:01. During these minutes, Oladipo played with three different lineups which outscored opponents by a total of 37.1 points per 100 possessions.

Therefore, one could argue that Oklahoma City’s struggles without Westbrook were due to head coach Billy Donovan’s failure to stagger Oladipo and Westbrook’s minutes. Unfortunately, media members neglected this fact and ran with the Westbrook has no help narrative which helped him capture the award.

The following season the sympathy narrative continued as the NBA community pushed for James Harden to win the award because he was snubbed the previous two seasons. Kobe Bryant told USA Today that James should have been the only player considered for the award.

"This is because “for the last three years, the guy has been absolutely lights out, and now you still want to sit here and debate who should be MVP.”"

Eventually, the narrative helped James Harden capture the award even though the Houston Rockets improved the supporting cast by adding superstar point guard Chris Paul. Paul was brought in to reduce the offensive load for Harden which would help him maintain energy throughout games.

According to NBA.com, James averaged 12.7 touches per game fewer than the previous season going from 96.1 to 83.4. The reduction in touches led to him becoming less of a facilitator for the team as he saw a significant drop in assists going from 11.2 to 8.8.

Therefore, all signs point to LeBron James winning the MVP award this upcoming season. The most prominent narrative in the league will be can LeBron propel the Lakers to the playoffs with no other superstar by his side in the much tougher Western Conference.

According to a top100 players list made by SI in September of last year, the West has eight of the top 10 players in the league. Consequently, it is much harder for teams to make the playoffs in the Western Conference because these eight players have to battle against one another 3-to-4 times a year.

In fact, the average threshold to make the playoffs in the West over the past five years has been 50.6 wins. On the other hand, the average threshold to make the playoffs in the East over the past five years has been 40.8 wins.

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As a result, if the Los Angeles Lakers capture the final playoff spot in the West with LeBron maintaining his current level of play (27.5 points per game with 9.1 assists and 8.6 rebounds) it’ll be portrayed as one of LeBron’s most significant achievements because he will be 33 going on 34 years old on a roster that is composed of young, developing players and veteran journeymen in the much tougher Western Conference.

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