4. Oklahoma City Thunder
Key additions: Dennis Schroder (trade), Nerlens Noel (FA)
Key losses: Carmelo Anthony (trade)
IN OKLAHOMA CITY, things seem a little less tense nowadays. They won’t have to worry about Paul George leaving for the immediate future, got rid of perhaps their biggest liability, and added much needed depth for the first time since being in Seattle (let’s get a team back there please). Perhaps most importantly, Russell Westbrook seems to be settling into his role beautifully as the Thunder’s franchise player.
While it wasn’t a perfect fit, Westbrook and George meshed well stylistically last season. Westbrook’s relentless, up-hill attack opens up plenty of passing and cutting lanes for George to capitalize on. George is an elite shooter who was a direct beneficiary of the Westbrook-effect (shot 43.7 percent on corner 3’s last year and 40.1 percent from 3 overall, both the second highest marks of his career) and is good as they come defensively on the perimeter.
At 6-foot-9 with lightning-quick hands and a long reach, he is one of the few guys in the NBA that can legitimately bother Durant. This duo gives Oklahoma City perhaps the best 1-2 combination basketball has to offer to counteract the Warriors’ overwhelming firepower. Andre Roberson being healthy again is huge too. He can defend four positions effectively and likely would have been my defensive payer of the year when he tore his patella last January.
I am also in love with the Schroder pickup. He can run an offense for long stretches and drastically improves Oklahoma City’s ceiling. For the first time in Westbrook’s career, he will have a reliable backup who can take stress off of him and force him to work off the ball a little more. A 6-foot-3 athletic freak, Billy Donovan should see this as an opportunity to use Russ more as a cutter and screener, areas he has rarely focused on throughout his career but could be highly effective in.
He would work wonders receiving back-door passes at full speed towards the rim from Steven Adams (an underrated passer) out of the high post. And while Nerlens Noel never lived up to the hype surrounding a sixth overall pick out of Kentucky, he’s on a minimum deal (after comically rejecting a four-year, $70 million contract from Dallas last July), is only 24, and has shown good defensive potential.
Nonetheless, the Thunder can throw two all-defensive calibre guys (Roberson and George) at Durant and Curry while maintaining a solid blend of shooting, playmaking, IQ, and athleticism. Their biggest weakness is at the four where they currently have Jerami Grant starting, but I wouldn’t be shocked if their most oft-used crunch-time lineup ends up being Russ-Schroder-Roberson-George-Adams. While their star power and balanced roster gives them a better shot at upsetting the Warriors than similar foes out West, they don’t have enough offensive firepower for Westbrook to win his long coveted first ring.
Thunder projected record: 50-32
Thunder chances of beating the Warriors in a series: 10-15 percent