5. Utah Jazz
Key additions: Grayson Allen (draft)
Key losses: Jonas Jerebko (FA)
QUIN SNYDER SHOULD FEEL very optimistic about his group moving forward. After losing star forward Gordon Hayward in free agency last summer, the Utah Jazz were expected to slip in the eyes of many. They struggled out of the gate, stumbling to an 18-26 record before center and eventual defensive player of the year Rudy Gobert returned from injury. What happened the rest of the regular season, nobody could have seen coming:
- a 30-8 record, second best in the NBA to Houston’s 34-5
- a 10.8 net rating, best in the NBA
- a 97.5 defensive rating, best in the NBA (the gap between them and second place Philadelphia was about as big as Philadelphia and that of Detroit, who was eleventh)
- Gobert was second in the NBA in blocks per game (2.3), fourth in individual DRTG (96.2), and eighth in rebounds per game (11.3). He played at an All-NBA level.
- rookie Donovan Mitchell EMERGED
To focus on that last point, Mitchell averaged 21.8 PPG in that span and led the NBA in plus-minus. Along the way, he won the dunk contest, four rookie of the month awards, set a rookie record for most 3s in a single season, was named to the All-Rookie first team, and finished second in rookie of the year voting. In the playoffs, he led the Jazz to a series win over Oklahoma City in which he averaged 27-7-3 on 55.5% TS, arguably outplaying Russell Westbrook and Paul George along the way.
Part of what could be a historic rookie class, Mitchell at times looked like the best of them all, and the Dwyane Wade comparisons make a lot of sense. He’s ultra shifty, uber athletic around the rim, and can get his own shot off with ease; not to mention he’s already a much better three point shooter than Wade has ever been. The sky is the limit.
Utah eventually ran into a Houston team that was too talented for their offense to keep up with, but they crushed expectations and have a legit star on their hands. Gobert’s value also cannot be overstated: the Jazz were 37-19 with him and 11-15 without him, the difference between a 54-win team and a 35-win team. Last year he improved Utah’s defense by 6.8 points per 100 possessions and their offense by 8.1 points per 100.
He won DPOY while playing less than 70% of his team’s games. With a fully healthy year of Mitchell and Gobert, and contributions from Joe Ingles (criminally underrated), Ricky Rubio (a long-time favourite of ESPN‘s real-plus-minus), Derrick Favors (18.8 PER, 59.2 TS%, 2.2 box-plus-minus last year), Jae Crowder (fit in well), and rookie Grayson Allen (the NBA’s newest Duke villain), the Jazz should win no less than 50 games but still fall a few pieces short of dethroning the champs. Their ceiling is the West Finals.
Jazz projected record: 53-29
Jazz chances of beating the Warriors in a series: 8-12 percent