8. Miami Heat
Key additions: Jarnell Stokes (FA)
Key losses: none
THE MIAMI HEAT VIRTUALLY DID NOTHING all offseason. GM Pat Riley had his hands tied with $120 million committed to eleven guys for 2018-19. Unfortunately for him, most of those eleven guys are average at basketball, and his team will be average moving forward. This is a testament to Riley’s winning mentality and stubbornness at the same time. He refuses to tank, overpaying for mediocre talent to ensure .500-ish basketball. The only real free agency Riley has dealt with involves the two longest tenured players in franchise history.
While Dwyane Wade just announced he’ll be back for one last year, Udonis Haslem quietly returned as well. Although undrafted, Haslem entered the league in ’03, the same year as Wade. The odds of him not only playing more years with the Heat, but more years overall than Wade the day after game 6 of the ’06 Finals would have been finite at best. The fact that Haslem is still playing speaks measures to not only his commitment to his body, but his professionalism and leadership. There are few guys league-wide you’d rather have than Udonis as a mentor to a locker room.
Although the cap situation is dire moving forward, coach Erik Speolstra actually has some young pieces to work with. Josh Richardson, Justise Winslow, and Bam Adebayo are all 24 or younger and have real potential to pan out. Richardson is one of the league’s most underrated defenders and can really shoot the three. He brings a lot of what Robert Covington does to the table.
Spo tried Winslow at point guard a bit last year and liked the results. The 2015 lottery pick has a similar body to that of Jimmy Butler and plays tough-minded, physical defense. As the league grows closer to position-less, versatility will become a necessity to stake out a long career. The Heat are seeing if it’s worth bringing Winslow back when his contract is up in 2020. He needs to continue to expand his playmaking ability (he averaged just 2.2 assists per game in ’18) to see consistent minutes at point guard, but he may not have a choice. If Wade re-signs, Winslow will be one of eight quality wings fighting for minutes on the Heat’s roster.
Also fighting for minutes could be Hassan Whiteside. Spo won’t care if he’s owed $25 million next year (Riley has gotten zero criticism for this) if Adebayo develops into a better finisher, rebounder, defender, and rim protector with a higher motor (all real possibilities at this very moment). The better of the two will start while Kelly Olynyk and even James Johnson might occasionally see minutes at the 5. It’s a dog eat dog world in Miami.
As a side, the thought of year 16 Dwyane Wade coming off the bench for a fringe playoff team is horrifying. It’d be one thing if he never left Dade County, but he’s now played for Chicago and Cleveland. In some ways, Wade is on his fourth team. Watching him nonchalantly jack contested long 2s with 14 seconds left on the shot clock got old four years ago. Somehow, one more year of Wade won’t be as painful as watching another future-hall-of-famer-turned-journeyman who entered the league in the early 2000s. Keep scrolling.
Heat projected record: 40-42
Heat chances of making the playoffs: 50%
Heat chances of winning the East: 1%