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NBA Offseason Wrap Up, Part 2: A Wild LeBron-less Eastern Conference

By Daniel Schmahl

BOSTON, MA - JANUARY 3: LeBron James #23 of the Cleveland Cavaliers and Kyrie Irving #11 of the Boston Celtics look on during the second half at TD Garden on January 3, 2018 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
BOSTON, MA - JANUARY 3: LeBron James #23 of the Cleveland Cavaliers and Kyrie Irving #11 of the Boston Celtics look on during the second half at TD Garden on January 3, 2018 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images) /
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NEW YORK, NY – FEBRUARY 19: Newly hired Brooklyn Nets General Manager Sean Marks answers questions during a press conference before the game between the Brooklyn Nets and the New York Knicks at Barclays Center on February 19, 2016 in the Brooklyn borough of New York City. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY – FEBRUARY 19: Newly hired Brooklyn Nets General Manager Sean Marks answers questions during a press conference before the game between the Brooklyn Nets and the New York Knicks at Barclays Center on February 19, 2016 in the Brooklyn borough of New York City. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images) / 
TIER 4: THE OUTSIDE LOOKING IN

Nets, Bulls, Cavs

Between all 11 tiers in both Conferences of my NBA offseason wrap up, this is perhaps the least desirable to be in. Being below average in the East is far from fun. At least if you’re really bad (Suns, Magic, Knicks, Hawks), you’ll likely end up with a top-5 pick (I didn’t forget about you, Kings fans), a much better predictor of future stardom. Here are the top 10 guys sorted by career box plus-minus that were taken in the 6-10 range in the last 10 drafts prior to 2018:

1. Steph Curry, 6.5

2. Joakim Noah, 4.17

3. Damian Lillard, 3.71

4. Paul George, 3.55

5. Kemba Walker, 2.33

6. Greg Monroe, 2.05

7. Gordon Hayward, 2.01

8. Brook Lopez, 0.85

9. Brandon Jennings, 0.44

10. DeMar DeRozan, -0.61

(I set the parameters from 6-10 because if Cleveland’s draft pick lands outside the top 10 next June, it falls to Atlanta as part of the Kyle Korver trade. At the time, the Cavs assumed LeBron would be around for the long haul and the pick was worth a lot less.) 

Although most guys taken here don’t pan out, you can find some gems in the mid-lottery. Falling under this jurisdiction doesn’t mean a team should succumb to entering no man’s land. With smart drafting and a few roster tweaks, any of the Nets, Bulls, or Cavs could be back in the playoffs within a year or two. Although this could be officially renamed the below average East teams tier, none of them are that far from playoff contention given the state of the Conference.

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