NBA Offseason Wrap Up, Part 2: A Wild LeBron-less Eastern Conference

2. Toronto Raptors

Key additions: Kawhi Leonard (trade), Danny Green (trade), Greg Monroe (FA)

Key losses: DeMar DeRozan (trade), Jakob Poeltl (trade)

THE EMBARRASSING LOSS to Cleveland in last year’s second round put Toronto Raptors‘ GM Masai Ujiri in a weird position. While it was a tough pill to swallow, he realized his roster had maxed out its potential: unable to get past LeBron as currently constructed. Ujiri had the coach of the year in Dwane Casey, two All-Stars in his back-court in Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, one of the deepest benches in the league, homecourt advantage throughout the East playoffs, Boston was missing its two best players, and Toronto still couldn’t make the Finals.

The Raptors once again ran into the best player of his generation (possibly ever), who pretty much embarrassed them throughout a brutal sweep. If this year’s series as a whole was disappointing, the second half of game four felt like an AAU match with one team having a kid who hit puberty three years before everyone else. Overall, Toronto is now 2-12 with a -213 point differential (-15.2 per game) against LeBron the last three postseasons (LeBron’s numbers in those games: 39.3 MPG, 31-8-8, 65.3 TS%). For as talented, well-coached, and balanced the Casey-era Raptors were, they always seemed to crumble against James in particular. It felt like they saw him more as a mystical figure than an opponent (evident in this Fred Van Vleet starstruck moment).

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Heading into the offseason, Ujiri knew he needed to shake things up, but didn’t want to sacrifice the present with a talented roster and wide open Conference. Historically, windows for contention in the NBA are short and very hard to come by. He made two major personnel changes.

The first move was firing Casey, replacing him with assistant coach Nick Nurse. While it wasn’t the way he would have liked to go out, Casey’s time in Canada should be viewed as a success. He took over a rebuilding team in ’12 and within two years had them in the playoffs. Up until ’14, the Raptors as a franchise had never won more than 47 games in a season – each of the last five seasons, the team won at least 48 games, peaking at 59 last year (the running wins-count over the last five Raptor seasons was 263, good for fourth in the league). And it’s not like the Raptors had zero playoff success in the Casey era. In each of the last three years they won a playoff series, something only Golden State and Cleveland can claim.

That being said, questionable lineup decisions, timeout mismanagement, and a strange disconnect from his two stars in big games were all apparent in last year’s flame out and consistent throughout Casey’s entirety with the team. Ultimately, he just couldn’t get by LeBron. While most fans loved him, many will admit that Casey’s time in Toronto had ran its course.

The second change Ujiri made was trading away All-NBA guard DeMar DeRozan. A lifetime Raptor, DeRozan leaves the franchise as its all-time leader in games, minutes, points, field goals, and free throws. Nobody has won more games in a Raptor uniform. While Vince Carter may be more iconic for putting Canadian basketball on the map, there is no doubt DeRozan is the greatest Raptor ever. I’m certain he would have welcomed the idea of being a Raptor for life.

DeRozan was traded in July for a package headlined by superstar forward Kawhi Leonard (a highway robbery by Ujiri). While it was a bittersweet ending to DeMar’s time in Toronto (the Raptors actually told him he wouldn’t be traded just weeks before the trade went down), he had to have suspected his days in the North may be numbered. Some numbers that pop out from DeRozan’s slash-line in those forgettable 14 playoff games against Cleveland the last three years: 20.2 PTS, 3.4 AST, 2.1 TOV, 0-16 3PA, 51.5 TS%. He just isn’t a big time player. He had a great nine years in Toronto, but now DeRozan will get a fresh start in a well-run organization and should age nicely as he enters the back nine of his career.

As for the new-look Raptors, Kawhi makes them legitimate contenders. For any Raptor fans that are upset they got rid of a guy who can’t shoot 3’s, is a lazy defender, and shrinks every May, you can now be confident you’ll have the best player in every series before the Finals. Leonard gives you DeRozan’s scoring on way better efficiency with elite defense, high IQ, leadership, and championship pedigree. If healthy he’ll average something along the lines on 25-6-5 on near 50-40-90 %’s, be one of basketball’s five to seven best players, and contend for the MVP/DPOY.

To sum up the Raptors offseason: Masai Ujiri made easy work of the Spurs. Even if Kawhi leaves for LA next summer, it only accelerates Toronto’s rebuild. They would likely dip into the lottery for 2020 while having the ability to create nearly $100 million in cap room that same offseason. If Leonard re-signs as a free agent, the Raptors can build around him for the foreseeable future. It’s a win-win for Ujiri and the team.

The Raptors will have a good chance to win 60 games and be as formidable as anyone to take down Golden State.

Raptors projected record: 60-22

Raptors chances of making the playoffs: 99%

Raptors chances of winning the East: 30%