5. Milwaukee Bucks
Key additions: Brook Lopez (FA), Ersan Ilyasova (FA), Pat Connaughton (FA), Donte DiVincenzo (draft)
Key losses: Jabari Parker (FA)
WITH THE MILWAUKEE BUCKS entering the Mike Budenholzer era, the franchise is at a similar point to where it was in the Don Nelson era – on the verge of being a contender for years to come. From ’78-87 – Nelly’s tenure – the Bucks had seven straight 50-win seasons, eight playoff appearances, a streak of seven straight 50-win seasons, and three Conference Finals appearances. Budenholzer will now get his chance at sustained success.
A Gregg Popovich disciple, Budenholzer’s teams are always competitive with a big emphasis on ball movement, 3-point shooting, switch everything defense, and position-less basketball. For Giannis Antetokounmpo, it’s a match made in heaven. He’ll still handle the ball a lot but we may see him used more in off-ball action than ever before – he’s an incredible athlete, now looks like this, and is 6’11 with some of the longest limbs in human history.
Behind the Buck Pass
The opportunities for him to thrive off the ball in cuts, roll man, pop, and freelance situations are limitless and I expect Bud to make the most out of it. Giannis will likely play a ton at small ball five and approach the league lead in minutes played. He only turns 24 in December but look for a big year out of the Greek Freak. 30-10-5 on 55 FG% and All-NBA level defense is his ceiling for ’19. He may be the Conference’s best player by January (if not already).
(Quick player comparison from last season:
Player A: 27.6 PTS, 7.2 REB, 5.5 AST, 2.0 STL, 6.8 3PA, 6.1 FTA, 47-36-88 %’s, 17.4 PER, 0.1 BPM per 100 possessions
Player B: 28.1 PTS, 5.3 REB, 3.6 AST, 1.1 STL, 10 3PA, 1.9 FTA, 49-44-84 %’s, 16.1 PER, -0.6 BPM per 100 possessions
Both guys used between 23-25% of their team’s possessions when on the floor and were similar defenders. While player B was the more efficient scorer, player A was more well-rounded and overall more impactful. More on this later.)
The offseason acquisitions should also be to the team’s benefit. Ilyasova is a sniper, while Lopez is a fantastic shot blocker who has turned himself into one of the league’s best 3-point shooting seven footers ever. What he does best typically fits today’s NBA well, but he has a real case for the NBA’s slowest player. He’ll start but only play 18-20 minutes a night and could get phased out as Thon Maker progresses. Vegas is laying -150 on Brook being a DNP-CD by game five of the first round next April.
It will really come down to guard play for Milwaukee. In some situations they may have three or four guards on the court by virtue of Budenholzer’s small ball asphyxiation and their styles must find a way to mesh. Eric Bledsoe and Malcolm Brogdon (the current recipient of the most forgettable rookie of the year season) will see a lot of minutes together and need to find a way to coexist. Per Basketball Reference, in 609 minutes last year the combo posted a -3.2 net rating per 100 possessions, horrible for a potential starting back-court.
The Greek Freak gives his team a chance to win on any given night, but overall Milwaukee lacks the requisite firepower, experience, depth, and IQ of a championship team. They may win 50 games but any of Boston, Toronto, or Philadelphia would overwhelm them with talent in a seven game series.
(If you haven’t figured it out, player A was Khris Middleton, who’s really good, and player B was Klay Thompson. While stats aren’t the be all end all and Klay has never been a metrics-favourite, the Bucks have a legit running mate next to Giannis. Middleton is probably the best player in the NBA the average fan might not know exists. I’ll wait for Warrior fans to blow up my DMs.)
Bucks projected record: 49-33
Bucks chances of making the playoffs: 80%
Bucks chances of winning the East: 3%