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Denver Nuggets: Injuries are the one factor that could derail a WCF appearance

By Robbie Stratakos

DENVER, CO - OCTOBER 05: Paul Milsap #4 of the Denver Nuggets excahnges words with referee Joshua Tiven #58 as he is ejected while playing the Perth Wildcats at the Pepsi Center on October 5, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)
DENVER, CO - OCTOBER 05: Paul Milsap #4 of the Denver Nuggets excahnges words with referee Joshua Tiven #58 as he is ejected while playing the Perth Wildcats at the Pepsi Center on October 5, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images) /
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Injuries are the biggest obstacle in the way of the Denver Nuggets reaching the Western Conference Finals

The Denver Nuggets have been one of the most captivating storylines of the 2018-19 season. At 21-10, they own the number one seed in the Western Conference. Given the way the Nuggets are playing, and how much better they can perform going forward, there’s only one factor that could derail a Western Conference Finals appearance: injuries.

The Nuggets are playing without 40 percent of their starting lineup for the time being. With shooting guard Gary Harris and forward Paul Millsap out with hip and toe injuries, head coach Mike Malone is devoid of two of his most impactful players. He’s also without swingman Will Barton – who’s played just two games this season – while Isaiah Thomas is yet to make his Nuggets debut.

Harris is one of the best shooting guards in the association given his ability to play at a high level defensively and be a driving force of the Nuggets offense, as he’s currently averaging 16.6 points per game. Meanwhile, Millsap is one of the most gritty two-way frontline players in the NBA, and Barton is an electric two-way player who can be productive in the starting five, or off the bench. When healthy, Thomas can be an electric source of offense.

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With that said, the Nuggets have gotten off to their hot start with Harris and Millsap missing the bulk of December; Harris hasn’t played since December 3, and Millsap has missed the Nuggets’ last six games. How have they been able to withstand their absences? The play of Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, as well as the next man up mentality.

Any doubt as to whether Jokic is a franchise player continues to disintegrate in every passing game he plays. He continues to be the focal point of the Nuggets offense through his ability to operate inside, be an outside shooting threat, and see the floor like a point guard. Averaging 18.2 points, 10.0 rebounds, and a career-high 7.3 assists per game, he’s been one of the most productive players in the NBA this season.

In his second year as the full-time point guard, Murray has continued to blossom. Averaging 17.6 points and a career-high five assists per game, he’s established himself as one of the best point guards in the NBA. Whether it be playing in isolation, or attacking the rack, Murray has been able to find ways to score.

The Nuggets have also received reliable production from their bench. Second-year point guard Monte Morris has come into games and picked up the slack offensively for Murray, averaging 10.3 points per game; Trey Lyles is averaging a career-high 10.1 points per game; Juan Hernangomez is averaging a career-high in points (9.8) and rebounds (5.5), while shooting 41.0 percent from beyond the arc (another career-best); Malik Beasley is averaging 8.1 points per game; Mason Plumlee has been his athletic self on both ends. In Harris’ place, Torrey Craig has played at a high level defensively.

Ironically, while their offense features some young and prominent individuals, the Nuggets went into Sunday night 18th in the NBA in points per game (110.0); they’re winning games because of their defense. Going into Sunday night, they were third in points surrendered per game (104.3), 11th in opponent field goal percentage (45.0), and second in opponent 3-point shooting percentage (32.4).

If they could string together more points on a nightly basis, the Nuggets would become even more dangerous, but for that to happen, they need their starting five on the floor – which, for the moment, it’s not.

With that said, the Nuggets have pulled off some impressive victories this season. They’ve defeated the Oklahoma City Thunder and Toronto Raptors twice, as well as the Golden State Warriors, Boston Celtics, and Portland Trail Blazers once apiece.

What the Nuggets have been able to do this season without some prominent figures is astonishing; they’re a resilient bunch, with talent from their starting backcourt to the end of their bench. But if Harris and Millsap continue to be hit by the injury bug, the Nuggets are going to be in trouble. In fact, it’s the second consecutive season that Millsap has missed significant time. Last season, injuries limited him to just 38 games, and had Millsap played for the majority of the 2017-18 season, the Nuggets may have cracked the playoffs.

This Nuggets core hasn’t played a single postseason game as a unit. They have individuals who have played in high magnitude games such as Millsap, Plumlee, and Lyles, but Jokic, Murray, and Harris have only played in one win-or-go-home game – which was against the Minnesota Timberwolves in the last game of the 2017-18 regular season. Without proven veterans, a deep postseason run will be hard to come by, no matter how well Jokic and Murray play.

Sure, the Nuggets have proven they can hang with and beat any team in the NBA when firing on all cylinders, but, in a seven-game series, they will need to be at full strength to get out of the West. They can only lean on Jokic and Murray for so much when it matters most. Besides, you could argue that outside of the Phoenix Suns (8-26), every team in the West has a chance of making the playoffs; the conference is that deep.

Next. NBA Power Rankings: All eyes are on Anthony Davis and the Lakers. dark

The Warriors are the team to beat in the playoffs, whether they’re the one or eight seed; the Thunder have never looked better in the post-Kevin Durant era, as Russell Westbrook and Paul George have led them to a 21-11 start; the Los Angeles Lakers are gelling with LeBron James at the helm babysitting/playing alongside a deep and improving young core; the Los Angeles Clippers have been the surprise team out West this season, as they’re currently 19-14.

The Denver Nuggets are legitimate contenders and a force to be reckoned with, but if they’re banged up come playoff time, it will be a quick return and exit from the playoffs.

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