NBA Draft 2019: Zion Williamson shouldn’t be the unanimous first overall pick

Exploring why Zion Williamson shouldn’t be the unanimous choice to be selected with the first overall pick in the 2019 NBA Draft

There is a growing sentiment around the league that Zion Williamson will be selected with the first overall pick in the 2019 NBA Draft. Rickey O’Donnell of SB Nation echoed these sentiments during his mock draft last month:

"Williamson will be the first pick in the draft. At this point, the only debate lies in how he measures up against the other No. 1 overall picks this decade like Ben Simmons, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Anthony Davis."

However, one can argue that Zion shouldn’t be the unanimous choice to be selected first overall because of his skill set. Zion has been touted as a player with exceptional playmaking ability during his journey through the amateur ranks.

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Kevin O’Connor of the Ringer alluded to his exceptional playmaking ability late last year when describing a play against the Kentucky Wildcats:

"Zion skies over a defender for a rebound, takes the ball up the court, then hits Tre Jones with the bounce pass for a layup. It’s not an exaggeration to say the last player to possess this type of skill with similar physical makeup was Charles Barkley. That’s what makes Williamson such a fascinating fit for the NBA. In today’s positionless league, Williamson could serve as the screener or as the ball handler in the pick-and-roll."

Zion’s skill set dictates that he is best suited to be in the LeBron James offense where he can dribble the ball to the 3-point line and analyze the entire defense. If one of the defenders is sagging off a shooter, he will pass the basketball to the shooter for an open 3-pointer.

On the other hand, if everyone stays home, he will study everything about his defender to determine the next course of action. If the defender decided to sag off of him, Zion would take the open jumper. But, if the defender played him tight, he will attempt to drive towards the basket for a score, to draw a foul or attract a double team.

Distance is not the only aspect of the defense that Zion can analyze as he can pay attention to the size of his defender. If he has a smaller defender, Zion can back him down into the post to score or throw a cross-court pass to a teammate behind the arc.

Unfortunately, two of the teams currently in the running for the number one overall pick are reliant on ball movement to create offense. The Cleveland Cavaliers and Phoenix Suns have been using ball movement to generate offense this season meaning that their players spend significant amounts of time off the ball.

One example of the Suns’ offense was midway through the first quarter of a road game against the LA Clippers when Tyler Johnson dribbled the ball to the 3-point line. Once this happened, he passed to Devin Booker who was posting up near the elbow.

Booker proceeds to turn around and immediately pass the ball to Dendre Ayton who was posting up on the low block. Ayton decided to shoot a turn around jumper to end that possession.

Conversely, one example of the Cavs was early in the first quarter against the Los Angeles Lakers, Cedi Osman walked the basketball to the 3-point line and passed it to Sexton who was standing between the elbow and wing. Sexton immediately gives the ball to Tristan Thompson who was standing just above the free-throw line.

Thompson proceeded to wait until Cedi came back towards the ball to start a dribble handoff sequence. Once Osman received the ball, he drove towards the basket and made a heavily contested shot.

Zion Williamson would not succeed in an off the ball role as shooting is considered to be his biggest weakness right now. Jonathan Wassermann of Bleacher Report alluded to this last month:

"At the time, Williamson was 4-of-21 from three and only converting 70.4 percent of his free throws. Spotting up off the ball, he ranked in the 24th percentile in points per possession, and he had made just one pull-up all season."

Therefore, teams will leave him unguarded until he develops a consistent outside shot. However, if these organizations decide to change their offensive system to accentuate the strengths of Zion Williamson, they would put Deandre Ayton and Collin Sexton outside of their comfort zone.

Both of these players will spend most of their time standing behind the arc in the role of spot up shooter/bystander because Zion needs the paint to be empty to maximize his playmaking ability.

Unfortunately, neither of these players will succeed in the role right away as Ayton has gone 0 for 4 from behind the arc in 53 games this season. On the other hand, shooting has always been one of Collin Sexton’s biggest weaknesses.

According to Draft Express, he has struggled with the consistency of his jump shot at the Nike hoop summit in 2017.

Sexton’s streaky shooting has followed him into the NBA as he shot 42.1 percent (making 0.8 3’s in 2 attempts per game) over the first 29 games. However, in the next 15 games, he is shooting 7.9 percent less from behind the arc (making 0.9 3’s in 2.5 attempts per game).

Over the last 14 games, Sexton has seen an upswing in his three-point shooting as he has increased his 3-point percentage by 5.5 percent (making 1.8 3’s in 4.5 attempts per game). Consequently, teams will leave both of these players open until they can hit the outside shot consistently.

This gives the opponents an opportunity to hide a bad defender on them or use that defender to provide help defense elsewhere. As a consequence, these organizations will have to decide if they are going to trade their current first-round picks to clear the way for Zion or pick another player like RJ Barrett who is a better fit for their system.

RJ has made 38 (52–14) more 3’s than his college teammate Zion this season.