Oklahoma City Thunder: Why the team is vulnerable to an early playoff exit
By Zamir Bueno
The Oklahoma City Thunder could be vulnerable to an early playoff exit because of their unreliable 3-point shooting
There is a growing belief in the NBA that the Oklahoma City Thunder are one of the biggest threats to beat the Golden State Warriors in the Western Conference playoffs.
Michael Shapiro of Sports Illustrated is one of the people who holds this belief:
"Blueprint vs. Golden State – Oklahoma City is most likely to repeat Houston’s effort in last year’s West Finals to derail the Warriors. The Thunder will rely on their length to hassle Curry and Durant, attacking the offensive boards with abandon. George is playing as well as Durant at the moment. Westbrook has the physicality to bother Curry. A horrendous shooting effort from Draymond Green would help, but with Golden State, the weapons are endless. The emotion of the series could derail Golden State, though the Warriors’ wealth of options makes an Oklahoma City victory a longshot."
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However, one can argue that the team is more likely to experience an early playoff exit because of unreliable 3-point shooting. Head coach Billy Donovan is relying on a significant amount of ball movement to generate offense for his team.
One example of this was during a recent home game against the Portland Trail Blazers when Russell Westbrook dribbled the ball to the 3-point line. Once this happened, he passed the basketball to Patrick Patterson who was standing near the elbow with his back to the basket.
Patrick immediately turned around and passed to Steven Adams who was near the free throw line. Adams decided to give the basketball back to Russell who moved from the top of the key to the right wing.
He held the ball until Paul George moved from the front of the rim to the top of the key. After this occurred, Steven Adams set a screen for George which gave him an open lane to drive towards the basket and dunk the basketball.
Even though their ball movement resulted in points on that possession, it will create some issues for them come playoff time because every player except for Steven Adams is relegated to a spot-up shooter role when they do not have the ball. Unfortunately, the team only has two players who have been above league average 3-point shooters for the past 5-plus seasons (35.6 percent) in Paul George (38.8 percent) and Patrick Patterson (36.7 percent).
Therefore, opponents will build their defensive game plan around clogging the paint because they want the team to feel that they have to shoot threes as it is the only open shot available. As a consequence, it puts the organization in a no-win situation because they will force to depend on their biggest weakness to win playoff games or rely on heavily contested looks at the basket.
In both scenarios, the Thunder will have plenty of missed shots opening the door for the opposing team to grab the rebound and push the basketball up the floor for an easy fast-break basket. The potential sequence would not allow Oklahoma City to put their players in the proper position to play defense.
Consequently, their effectiveness on defense would dramatically drop as they rely on deflections and steals to wreak havoc on that end of the floor. The team currently ranks first in deflections and steals per game as they average 16.2 and 10.3 in those respective categories.
One example of this was during a home game against the Sacramento Kings when De’Aaron Fox brought the basketball up to the 3-point line. Once this happened, he tried to initiate a dribble handoff sequence with Justin Jackson, but Paul George got his right hand in between Jackson and the basketball causing a turnover.
This potential sequence is unlikely to happen on fast-break opportunities because of larger passing windows. As a consequence, defenders must have a longer wingspan to cover a bigger amount of space and be able to anticipate where the ball is going to get a deflection or steal.
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In conclusion, the combination of these factors makes the Oklahoma City Thunder vulnerable to a first-round exit in the playoffs.