2019 NBA Draft: Why Ja Morant will be entering the NBA at the wrong time

Ja Morant will enter the NBA at the wrong time because the teams projected to pick at the top of the NBA Draft are going to use him off the ball, accentuating his biggest weakness

There is a growing sentiment around the league that Murray State point guard Ja Morant will be a top-five pick in the 2019 NBA Draft. In fact, Jeremy Woo of Sports Illustrated had him as the second overall pick during a mock draft in late January:

"If there is justice in the world, Morant should be the first guard drafted in June. There’s not much of an argument for him to go ahead of Williamson, but he has a legitimate chance to be the next guy off the board."

However, one can argue that being a top-five pick won’t be beneficial to the NBA career of Ja Morant. Ja Morant has gained the reputation of excelling with the ball in his hands during his amateur career.

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In fact, Jonathan Wassermann of Bleacher Report wrote an article in December of last year stating that Morant thrived in pick and roll situations:

"Morant is an assist weapon off ball screens, able to free up rolling bigs or shooters by freezing the defense with hesitation dribbles and moving it with pass fakes before delivering the ball. At the time of this article, he was averaging 1.10 points per possession which put him in the 70th percentile."

Therefore, Ja Morant should play in an offensive system where he can initiate the pick-and-roll. Starting the pick-and-roll sequence would allow Morant to study the opposing defense to determine what is the right play on a specific possession.

For example, Morant can bring the ball up to the 3-point line and call for a screen. Once the pick was set, Ja can pay attention to his defender to determine the course of action. If the defender stayed under the screen, he can either shoot the ball immediately or go over the screen to shoot a mid-range jumper.

On the other hand, if the defender fought over the screen, he can go over it as well and drive towards the basket to score or pass the basketball depending on whether a double team comes.

Unfortunately, he will not get the chance to have the ball in his hands upon entering the league because the top five teams in the draft lottery already have a young point guard or use their point guard in an off the ball role. For instance, the Cleveland Cavaliers and Phoenix Suns have been using ball movement to generate offense this season meaning that their players spend significant amounts of time off the ball.

One example of the Suns’ offense was midway through the first quarter of a road game against the LA Clippers when Tyler Johnson dribbled the ball to the 3-point line. Once this happened, he passed to Devin Booker who was posting up near the elbow.

Booker proceeds to turn around and immediately pass the ball to Deandre Ayton who was posting up on the low block. Ayton decided to shoot a turn around jumper to end that possession.

Conversely, one example of the Cavs was early in the first quarter against the Los Angeles Lakers, Cedi Osman walked the basketball to the 3-point line and passed it to Sexton who was standing between the elbow and wing. Sexton immediately gives the ball to Tristan Thompson who was standing just above the free-throw line.

Thompson proceeded to wait until Cedi came back towards the ball to start a dribble handoff sequence. Once Osman received the ball, he drove towards the basket and made a heavily contested shot.

Not only would Ja Morant have to spend time off the ball in Cleveland and Phoenix, but he is also going to face a similar problem if he gets selected by the Chicago Bulls. Chicago currently has their starting point guard Kris Dunn spending a significant amount of time off the ball in the role of bystander/spot-up shooter.

A prime example of this is when Dunn would dribble the basketball up to the 3-point line and pass the ball to a teammate to initiate the pick and roll. Once this happened, Kris would spend the rest of the possession standing behind the three-point line in the role of a spot up shooter.

Unfortunately, Ja would struggle in an off the ball role as shooting is one of his biggest weaknesses. Morant has shot 32.5 percent from behind the arc (making 1.2 3’s in 3.8 attempts per game) in nearly two seasons at Murray State. Therefore, teams will leave him unguarded until he develops a consistent outside shot.

If Ja Morant doesn’t get drafted by those teams, his most likely landing spot will be with the New York Knicks. Sadly, the organization already has a young point guard on the roster in Dennis Smith Jr. who they acquired from the Dallas Mavericks last month.

Therefore, Ja will have to spend a significant amount of time off the ball once again because Dennis Smith Jr becomes unhappy when he is not the primary ball handler. According to ESPN, Smith asked the Mavericks to trade him after he saw that Luka Doncic was becoming the primary ball handler:

"Smith expressed that he hopes to be traded. Sources said Smith was frustrated with his role and had friction with Carlisle since Rookie of the Year front-runner Luka Doncic seized the reins of the offense."

The only way New York trades Smith this offseason is if they can sign Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving to maximum contracts. Unfortunately, those signings increase the likelihood that Morant is put on the trading block as the organization will try to acquire a third star.

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As a consequence, Ja will have a disappointing start to his career unless these organizations cater to his strengths or the Atlanta Hawks decided to trade their draft choice to get multiple picks in return. The potential strategy might open the door for teams who are searching for a primary ball handler to move up into the top five, ie New Orleans.