RJ Barrett shouldn’t be a top three pick in the NBA Draft because he doesn’t possess the right skill set to succeed with the teams at the top of the lottery
There is a growing sentiment in the league RJ Barrett will be selected within the first three picks of the 2019 NBA draft. Reid Forgrave of CBS Sports had RJ Barrett going to the Cleveland Cavaliers with the second overall pick during his mock draft last week:
"For a team like the Cavaliers, who’s especially in need of a star, Barrett has star potential."
However, one can argue that RJ shouldn’t be a top three pick in the draft because he doesn’t possess the right skill set to succeed with the teams at the top of the lottery. RJ has gained the reputation of being a player who thrives with the ball in his hands.
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According to Chris Stone of Sporting News, RJ’s best attribute is his ability to attack the basket and score around the rim:
"Barrett’s most refined skill at this stage is his ability to attack and score around the basket. He excels as a straight line threat thanks to lengthy strides that allow him to eat up space, but he can also change directions with a couple go-to moves. Once at the rim, he’s a creative finisher who can re-adjust midair to avoid defenders."
Consequently, he would be a bad fit with multiple teams at the top of the lottery as they currently run a ball movement system or already have a primary ball handler on the roster. For instance, the Cleveland Cavaliers and Phoenix Suns have been using ball movement to generate offense this season meaning that their players spend significant amounts of time off the ball.
One example of the Suns’ offense was midway through the first quarter of a road game against the Los Angeles Clippers when Tyler Johnson dribbled the ball to the 3-point line. Once this happened, he passed to Devin Booker who was posting up near the elbow.
Booker proceeds to turn around and immediately pass the ball to Deandre Ayton who was posting up on the low block. Ayton decided to shoot a turn around jumper to end that possession.
Conversely, one example of the Cavs was early in the first quarter against the Los Angeles Lakers, Cedi Osman walked the basketball to the 3-point line and passed it to Collin Sexton who was standing between the elbow and wing. Sexton immediately gives the ball to Tristan Thompson who was standing just above the free-throw line.
Thompson proceeded to wait until Cedi came back towards the ball to start a dribble handoff sequence. Once Osman received the ball, he drove towards the basket and made a heavily contested shot.
A similar situation is happening with the Chicago Bulls as they have their point guard Kris Dunn spending a significant amount of time off the ball as a spot up shooter or bystander. A prime example of this is when Dunn would dribble the basketball up to the 3-point line and pass the ball to a teammate to initiate the pick and roll.
Once this happened, Kris would spend the rest of the possession standing behind the 3-point line in the role of a spot up shooter.
On the other hand, the Atlanta Hawks have been thrilled to have rookie point guard Trae Young as their primary ball handler. Hawks general manager Travis Schlenk told CBS Sports last summer that he hadn’t seen a point guard of Young’s age manipulate the pick and roll like Trae had:
"“You just don’t see kids his age who can run pick and roll so naturally, who can make plays and find guys on the move with both their left and right hand.”"
Similar to Atlanta, the New York Knicks recently acquired a primary ball handler from the Dallas Mavericks in the form of Dennis Smith Jr. The presence of Smith Jr hurts RJ’s chances of becoming a primary ball handler because Dennis has shown a history of being unhappy when he does not have the ball.
According to ESPN, Smith asked the Mavericks to trade him after he saw that Luka Doncic was becoming the primary ball handler:
"Smith expressed that he hopes to be traded. Sources said Smith was frustrated with his role and had friction with Carlisle since Rookie of the Year front-runner Luka Doncic seized the reins of the offense."
Therefore, RJ would be forced to spend a significant amount of time off the ball in the role of spot up shooter/bystander if these organizations select him. Unfortunately, shooting is his biggest weakness as he has shot 31.3 percent from behind the arc (making 1.9 3’s in 6.2 attempts) during his first season at Duke.
As a consequence, teams will sag off of him until he can make the outside shot on a consistent basis. This allows the opposing team to use the player who is supposed to guard him as a help defender.
In conclusion, unless these organizations are willing to make drastic changes to accentuate the strength of RJ Barrett, they would be better off trading down to amass more draft capital and selecting a shooter.