NBA Draft: Jarrett Culver has flaws that prove he shouldn’t be a top 5 pick

It would be a mistake for a team at the top of the 2019 NBA Draft lottery to select Jarrett Culver as he does not possess the right tools to thrive in their offenses

There has been a lot of conversation around the league in the past few weeks suggesting that Jarrett Culver will be a top-five pick in the 2019 NBA Draft. Jeremy Woo of Sports Illustrated had Culver going fourth to the Chicago Bulls:

"An iffy performance in Monday night’s title game was somewhat discouraging, but Culver remains one of the better long-term prospects in this draft. That said, some of his limitations have been on display throughout the NCAA tournament, particularly his struggles creating off the dribble against more athletic opponents.…"

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"His versatility would fit well with the Bulls’ current mishmash of a roster, as Chicago tries to figure out its future."

However, one can argue that it would be a mistake for a team at the top of the lottery to select Jarrett Culver as he does not possess the right tools to thrive in their offensive systems. Culver has been known as a player who can only succeed with the basketball in his hands.

Jonathan Tjarks of The Ringer echoed these observations during an article he wrote about Culver last week:

"Culver is a crafty player who stays in attack mode without forcing shots. His primary method of creating offense is as the ball handler in the pick-and-roll, where he gets 26.1 percent of his offensive possessions, according to the tracking numbers at Synergy Sports. Defenses tend to play off him, but he knows how to eat up space when he has a mismatch, either by using his size to score over smaller defenders or using his quickness to get around slower ones."

Unfortunately, Jarrett Culver won’t be able to properly showcase his skills in the NBA because the top lottery teams either run a ball movement offense or already have a primary ball handler. For instance, the Cleveland Cavaliers and Phoenix Suns have been using ball movement to generate offense this season meaning that their players spend significant amounts of time off the ball.

One example of the Suns’ offense was early in the first quarter of a home game against the Memphis Grizzlies when De’Anthony Melton dribbled the ball to the 3-point line. Once this happened, he passed the basketball to Deandre Ayton who was standing near the elbow with his back to the basket.

Ayton proceeded to back Jonas Valanciunas down for a couple of seconds before entering a dribble handoff sequence with Devin Booker. Booker ended the possession missing a mid-range jumper.

Conversely, one example of the Cavs was early in the first quarter against the Los Angeles Clippers, when Collin Sexton dribbled the basketball to the three-point line. Once this happened, he passed the ball to David Nwaba who was standing on the left wing.

Nwaba dribbles the ball to the top of the key and proceeds to pass it to Cedi Osman. Osman decided to start a pick and roll sequence with Tristan Thompson on the right wing. The pick and roll sequence resulted in Cedi Osman making a layup.

Cleveland and Phoenix aren’t the only teams who currently use ball movement to generate offense as the Chicago Bulls are in the same boat. A prime example of this was during a road game against the LA Clippers, when Kris Dunn dribbled the basketball to the 3-point line. Once this happened, he passed the ball to Otto Porter Jr who was standing on the left wing.

Otto immediately passed the basketball to Lauri Markkanen who had established post position on the low block. Lauri ends the possession by facing up and taking a couple of steps to the right to miss a baby sky hook.

On the other hand, Atlanta and New York already have a primary ball handler on the roster. For example, the Atlanta Hawks are unlikely to take the basketball out of Trae Young‘s hands as the organization is in amazement with how he runs the pick and roll. Hawks GM Travis Schlenk told CBS Sports last summer that he was amazed at the level of pick and roll skill Young possessed before playing his first NBA game:

"You just don’t see kids his age who can run pick and roll so naturally, who can make plays and find guys on the move with both their left and right hand.”"

Similarly, the New York Knicks wouldn’t take the ball out of Dennis Smith Jr‘s hands as he has shown a tendency to get mad when he does not have the ball. According to ESPN, Smith asked the Mavericks to trade him after he saw that Luka Doncic was becoming the primary ball handler:

"Smith expressed that he hopes to be traded. Sources said Smith was frustrated with his role and had friction with Carlisle since Rookie of the Year front-runner Luka Doncic seized the reins of the offense."

Consequently, Jarrett Culver would be subjected to an off the ball role as a bystander or spot up shooter. Unfortunately, shooting is a big weakness for him as he shot 34.1 percent from behind the arc ( making 1.4 3’s in 4.1 attempts per game) in two seasons with Texas Tech.

In conclusion, unless these organizations are willing to make significant changes to accentuate the strengths of Jarrett Culver, they would be better off not drafting him.