The past NBA Lottery had huge implications in trying to get teams to stop tanking, but was will it be recieved and effective?
The past year, the NBA made a modification to the odds in the NBA lottery that is celebrated in May. The modification was made to avoid teams losing on purpose in the regular season, or as is commonly known as Tanking.
Form 2005-18, the team with the worst record got 25 percent chance of getting the 1st pick in the following draft, and with the 2nd and 3rd worst record got 19.9 percent and 15.6 percent respectively of getting the 1st pick.
In the spirit of having a more competitive regular season, and avoid teams to tank, the NBA modified the odds format so the three teams with the worst record got the same odds at 14 percent of getting the 1st pick.
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With this modification teams didn’t stop from tanking, such as Knicks, Cavaliers and the Suns. Even the Knicks and certainly most of the media, prior to the Lottery, was certain that they will win the lottery and draft Zion Williamson. But, when the Lottery was completed, the Knicks finish with the 3rd pick and the team that won the lottery was the one with the 7th worst record in the New Orleans Pelicans.
Perhaps this could be a message to all the teams and stop tanking.
Now, after all the tension has gone away, let’s explain why the modification of the odds will not stop tanking and in some cases, is not something you can avoid with the current system.
Remembering previous times
If we remember the 2014 Lottery, the Cleveland Cavaliers with 1.7 percent odds won the lottery. The 2008 Chicago Bulls, who also only had 1.7 percent odds won the lottery too. A team with the 10th worst record or better has won the lottery.
Having these two results never stopped teams to tank, so why stop now that the odds have been modified?
This did not stop teams from tanking this past season and all teams know that the odds were modified, and statistically speaking modifying the odds will not stop teams.
As one teacher told me, the odds are the result of having an infinite number of experiments and the favorable cases will be the same as your odds. In the case of the Draft Lottery, there are not infinite numbers of experiments there is only one time of getting your favorable case. So as GM, if I can have a slight advantage by tanking and with this I can improve my team why not lose on purpose one season, because also there is no way I can assure to have the 3rd worst record.
Sometimes tanking is not on purpose
However, on the other hand, some teams or players hate to lose. Take for example Phoenix Suns guard, Devin Booker. Booker was so desperate of having losing records throughout his young career and said in the exit interview of the 2017-18 season:
"“I’m done with not making the playoffs. I’m serious. This is probably the last year I’m ever not making the playoffs. That’s putting pressure on myself I need….”."
Following this statement, the Suns finished with the second-worst record this past season. Regardless of what Booker said, this is not completely his fault. The Suns started the season without a clear point guard to initiate their offense, and never really answered that at all throughout the season.
Because of that Booker was forced to play off his natural position, shooting guard. Booker as a great basketball player took the challenge given and perform. Even having a career year and Deandre Ayton, the 1st Pick of the 2018 Draft, the Suns season finish with losing record. This is not a knock to both of those players, but winning in the NBA is difficult, different analyst says “This is star-driven league”.
The main purpose of the NBA Draft is to select better young players to improve your team. Since the Suns drafted Booker, they have four lottery picks in the past three drafts alongside losing records. In this case, is more on the scouting team and general manager and questioned their selections in the draft.
Resolution
NBA teams on paper will always try to win every game and aspire to win a championship. Reality sometimes is the other way around. As a fan, I want to see my team build a top tier team that could compete to a championship, but one thing to remember is that drafting first doesn’t mean instant wins.
The last rookie to take his team to win an NBA championship and play a key role in the team was Magic Johnson, however, he was surrounded by two future Hall of Famers in Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Jamaal Wilkes.
As we can see, in much of these cases the young players are also joining other young players and try to understand their new life. In case of the Phoenix Suns, the average year of experience of nearly three years and was the fourth youngest team with 25.22, having Jamal Crawford at 39 of age.
Getting teams to stop tanking is almost impossible; teams always will try to get better by losing but give some recognition that the NBA has noticed this and try to make an adjustment so teams stop tanking.
Don’t forget that is also a business and the NBA is always will be searching to attract more viewers, that’s why teams where so nervous and try to get Zion Williamson because having him and all the highlight dunks that he makes means more attendance and therefore more tickets and more money to a team.