NBA: Building a Big 4 comes with risk and added difficulty

Building an NBA Championship caliber team is difficult but if you have an option would you rather building an NBA with a Big 3 than a Big 4?

As a general manager, having to build a championship caliber NBA team is difficult. You have to be extremely creative with the cap space and have to decide who to sign to what kind of contract for how much and how long.

Also, if you have a draft selection you have to view dozens of workouts so you can select the right player for your team.

Some GMs throughout the history of the NBA have had the luck to get their hands on three elite players or in even some rare cases four elite players.

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On paper, as a GM, if you were asked would you rather have three elite players or four elite players to build your team around, what would you choose? This is not a simple question to answer. Let’s begin to explain why.

Complement?

The very first factor that needs to be considered is if each of the stars complements each other. Having two elite players that not only need the ball but are ball hogs is clear that their game really doesn’t complement each other at all.

The NBA has a tracking tool known as the Usage Rate (USG%) that is an estimate of the percentage of plays that a player is used while he is on the floor.

But don’t let these numbers fool you, we have to understand the circumstances. For example, in the 2006-07 season, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, Kevin Garnett with 9th, 13th and 20th respectively but each of them were a solo star on their respective teams.

The following season, they were raising together the championship trophy with Boston Celtics alongside Rajon Rondo and only having Garnett in the top 30 of USG%. They had kind of Big Four, with Rondo coming off a solid rookie campaign averaging 6.4 points, 3.8 assists and 3.7 rebounds but his numbers increased in the Finals with 9.3 points, 6.7 assists and, 3.8 rebounds.

Fast forward to today, we have two teams that have a Big Four, in the Golden State Warriors and the Philadelphia 76ers. The Sixers only had one player, Joel Embiid, in the top 50 of USG% rate (top 2) during the 2017-18 season. The Warriors had Kevin Durant (15th) and StephenCurry (18th) as in top 50 of USG% rate during the 2017-18 season.

So talking about USG% rate. they are working just fine the teams with a legit Big Four. Now viewing the situation of the 2016-17 Cleveland Cavaliers, who had a legit Big Three in LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, and Kevin Love. Two of them – LeBron (12th) and Kyrie (10th) – were in the top USG% rate and ended up going to the NBA Finals.

Depth

The next factor to consider is depth. The more elite players you have, the less cap space you have to fill out the rest of your roster.

In the case of the 2008 Celtics, that was not a problem. One of their Big Four was on a rookie contract, and their other stars were on the latter end of their prime careers. At the time, the Big Four was responsible for 76 percent of the team’s payroll, giving GM Danny Ainge the remaining 24 percent to build a solid bench.

In case of the 2017 Cavaliers, their Big Three consumed 86 percent of their cap space. As for the Warriors, their Big Four of Curry, Durant, Thompson, and Green totaled a figure of $103 million. More than the $101 million cap.

total have a Cap figure of 103 M of the 101 M available in Cap Space. With this in mind, now we can understand why their bench is so thin and this is with Curry starting his supermax contract.

On the other hand, the Sixers’ Big Four of Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons, Tobias Harris, and Jimmy Butler have a cap figure $67 million, but let’s take in account that Simmons is in a rookie contract and Butler and Harris are free agents that on the break of huge extensions.

But with all of this, both teams, Warriors and Sixers, have a thin bench and had success in these playoffs.

Risk

Neither factors previously mentioned have been a great factor, and all the teams have a successful season and in two of the cases make it all the way to the NBA Finals. Regardless, let’s take into account that the Big 3 of the Cavaliers, who were defeated by the Big Four of the Warriors, in the 2018 NBA Finals.

Both ways have success throughout history, either way, have a huge probability of having a pretty good season. But what about if you have an injury as the Warriors have had in these playoffs. In Game 5 of the second round, Kevin Durant suffers a calf strain that has still kept him sidelined.

Having a Big Four makes you depend on the health of your core and this is a huge risk. There is no way you can assure your players will be healthy an entire season. For example, if the Cavaliers had had all their team healthy in the 2015 NBA Finals we can have a really solid argument that they would’ve been two-time NBA Champions.

Evaluating these factors makes you prefer having four Elite players than having three. But the main thing to remember is that the CBA is designed to retain the elite players you draft and develop, so for the current CBA is easier to have a Big 3 than a Big 4.

Let’s remember that the Warriors could only sign Kevin Durant because Curry was battling injury throughout his first four years and was signed to a pretty friendly contract after his rookie contract expired. And for the case of the Sixers, to have Simmons on his rookie contract makes things plenty easier.