NBA Finals: Even if KD returns, the Raptors will likely still win Game 5

Even if Kevin Durant returns for Game 5, the Toronto Raptors will still win Game 5 of the NBA Finals and secure their first championship in franchise history

The Toronto Raptors shocked the NBA world when they won both road games against the Golden State Warriors in Games 3 and 4 of the NBA Finals to take a 3-1 series lead.

So far, the Raptors are 6-4 on the road this postseason and have won their last three road games. The Raptors are the first team to win three-straight road games vs. the Warriors under Steve Kerr.

Games 3 and 4 demonstrated that the Warriors, without KD, just do not have the depth on their roster to compete against a team as good as the Raptors led by Kawhi Leonard, and it really showed in Game 4.

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In Game 4, for example, players other than Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry on the Warriors roster had only 37 points. While Klay and Curry have shot a combined 47 percent on jump shots attempted through the first four games, their suppoting cast is only shooting 25 percent on jump shots.

Curry looked tired after Game 3 and 4 in his postgame conference. He has not had to carry the Warriors for the last two postseasons. Also, the 73-win Warriors were deeper and better than the Warriors we’re are seeing in the 2019 playoffs. They had Harrison Barnes and a younger Andre Iguodala on their roster, which added significant depth.

In Game 4, Kawhi was just too much for the Warriors. He finished with 36 points on 50 percent shooting on nearly 60 percent from 3-point range and was perfect from the free throw line. His performance was probably one of the best offensive performances in NBA Finals history. On the defensive end, Kawhi also had four steals and one block.

The Warriors have developed a reputation for beating teams in the third quarter. As long as the Warriors stay within striking distance, the Warriors are capable of making considerable runs in the third that enables them to bury opponents and come back from any deficit.

In their only win of the series so far, the Warriors put up a historic 18-0 run to start the third quarter that enabled them to beat the Raptors in Game 2.

In Games 1 and 2, the Raptors outscored the Warriors every quarter except in the third quarter. However, for Games 3 and 4 the Raptors have won the third quarter battle with the Warriors. This has been critical for them winning both games.

In Game 4, prior to the third quarter, Kawhi Leonard’s timely scoring and the Raptors’ defense kept them in the game. It looked like the Raptors paced themselves in quarters 1 and 2 to be ready for the third quarter.

The Raptors were effective in Game 4 because they mitigated the impact the Warriors can have in the third quarter. Kawhi’s two 3’s at the beginning of the third quarter changed the momentum of the game in favor of the Raptors.

With just roughly three minutes to go in the third quarter, the Raptors were up by one point until the Warriors lost the ball due to a turnover and Draymond Green got a technical foul. After that, Kawhi made a quick five points and Serge Ibaka hit a big jump shot to put the Raptors up by eight points. The Warriors never recovered from this deficit.

In the third quarter of Game 4, the Raptors scored 37 points and only had two turnovers. Meanwhile, the Warriors only scored 21 points in the third quarter.

Ibaka also made all the difference in Game 4. In Games 1-3, he had 18 points and had a +/- of +2. However, in Game 4, Ibaka had 20 points in 22 minutes and a +/- of +13. The Warriors did not have a player on their roster that could guard him.

So far in this series, critical to the Raptors success on the offensive end of the court has been their ability to get to the free-throw line. The Raptors have attempted 55 free-throws off drives in the first four games. The Warriors have only attempted 18.

As for Game 5, there is a high likelihood that the Raptors close out the series in Toronto. Since 2014, the Raptors are 5-1 when they have a chance to clinch playoff series at home.

There have been 34 teams that have trailed 3-1 in the NBA Finals. Of these 34 teams, only one team has made a comeback and won the Finals. This is only second time under Kerr that the Warriors have trailed 3-1.

The Warriors distress is also largely due to the fact that Kevin Durant has missed the last nine games due to an alleged calf injury.

KD is the only hope the Warriors have in this series. KD coming back changes everything for the Warriors. However, even he may not be enough now at this point the series.

While KD did show up to practice on Sunday, he did not stay on the court for long.

Moreover, nobody knows the severity of his injury and healthy he would be in a Game 5. Because he has missed the last nine game, it would hard for him to jump into Game 5 and find his rhythm.

If KD were to return 100 percent healthy in Game 5 and play the way he did in the first two rounds, the Warriors could very well come back and win the championship. However, this is very unlikely. And returning for a Game 5, KD may risk compromising his health for next season and free agency.

It also may be in KD’s interest to not return in Game 5. Also, the Warriors losing this series to the Raptors in five games validates the two titles KD won with the Warriors. If KD returns and the Warriors still lose, it will look horrible on his legacy.

The Raptors have a true closer in Kawhi Leonard and expect him to have a huge Game 5. However, Fred VanFleet was injured in Game 4, and his health will definitely impact the success of the Raptors in Game 5. He has been a big part of the Raptors success in the NBA Finals.

Even if KD returns, if the Raptors are fully healthy they will likely win Game 5 and close out the series.