Miami Heat: How Jimmy Butler and Russell Westbrook would fit as a duo

Exploring if Jimmy Butler and Russell Westbrook can be an effective duo for the Miami Heat next season

There is a growing sentiment around the league that the Miami Heat are a team to watch in the Russell Westbrook trade sweepstakes. ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski named the Miami Heat as a team to watch last week because he believes Russell is the type of player that the organization wants in their system.

However, one can argue that Miami would be making a mistake if they decided to trade for Russell Westbrook as his skill set doesn’t complement their newly acquired star in Jimmy Butler. Jimmy is known as a player who wants to have the basketball in his hands.

According to ESPN, two months into his tenure with the Philadelphia 76ers Jimmy expressed concern about the lack of isolation and pick and roll ran by head coach Brett Brown:

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"Butler has expressed a desire to teammates to play in more traditional pick-and-roll and isolation sets, rather than trying to find his place in the Sixers’ free-flowing offense, league sources said. In searching for answers, Butler has met privately with Brown and his coaching staff, as well as general manager Elton Brand."

Consequently, one would expect that the head coach for the Miami Heat, Erik Spoelstra, is going to increase the amount of isolation and pick and roll sets in his system to keep Jimmy Butler happy. The Heat was 13th in pick and roll possessions (21 per game) and 26th in isolation possessions (5.1 per game) last season.

If Spo chooses to increase the amount of these sets, he would need to put multiple shooters alongside Jimmy. Having multiple shooters on the floor during a pick and roll lessens the likelihood of a double team and preserves floor spacing because teams are worried about surrendering an open three.

One example of this was during a Houston Rockets road game against the Dallas Mavericks when James Harden dribbled the ball to the 3-point line.Once this happened, Nene came up to set the screen which created a temporary wall between Harden and his defender Wesley Matthews. The temporary wall left Dirk Nowitzki as the last line of the defense between James and the basket.

James Harden knew Dirk didn’t possess the lateral quickness to stop him from getting to the rim. Therefore, he drove straight down the middle of the paint and scored with a layup.

As the play was unfolding, one would expect a teammate to help Dirk with the task of stopping Harden from scoring. Unfortunately, the presence of Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson prevented this from happening as they were two of the best shooters in the league during that season.

Eric and Ryan shot 37.2 and 40.3 percent respectively from behind the arc in the 2016-17 season. Both players shot at least 1.4 percent better than the league average of 35.8 percent. Consequently, his teammates were hesitant to help as it would have increased the likelihood of them being left open.

Unfortunately, if the Heat acquire Russell to be Jimmy’s co-star, it would enable opponents to double team, Butler. This is because Russell is considered to be a below average shooter as he has shot 30.8 percent from behind the arc ( making 1.1 3’s in 3.6 attempts per game) in 11 seasons.

Russell’s 3-point percentage is 4.89 percent lower than the league average [(36.7 + 35.5 + 35.8 + 34.9 +35.9 + 36 + 35 + 35.4 +35.8 + 36.1 + 35.5)/11 = 35.69] during this span.Therefore, his defender will leave him open when he is off the ball to become a help defender on Jimmy or other teammates.

The only way Russell Westbrook can thrive as a member of the Miami Heat is as the primary ball handler because he has relied on a significant amount of isolation sets in recent years. Russell has been inside the top 10 in isolation possessions per game over the past three seasons as he has averaged 5.43 per game [(6.4 + 5.0 + 4.9)/3}.

Unfortunately, he would encounter the same problem as Butler because Jimmy is also known as a below average shooter. Jimmy Butler has a career 3-point shooting percentage of 34.1 percent ( making 0.9 3’s in 2.7 attempts) in eight seasons.

Jimmy’s 3-point percentage has been 1.4 percent lower than the league average [(34.9 +35.9 + 36 + 35 + 35.4 +35.8 + 36.1 + 35.5)/8 = 35.57] during this span. As a consequence, the team would be at a constant 4 on 5 disadvantage on the offensive side of the floor because opponents can leave whoever doesn’t have the ball open to provide help defense.

A potential counter-argument to this would be to surround Jimmy and Russell with shooters to preserve floor spacing. Unfortunately, the team would have to include one of their best shooters (Kelly Olynyk or Goran Dragić) in the Westbrook trade for salary matching purposes as Russell is scheduled to make $38.5 million for the 2019-20 season.

This would leave the team with two above average shooters (Kelly Olynyk/Goran Dragić and Meyers Leonard) on the roster for next season. As a consequence, teams can put 3 defenders in the paint against the Heat, forcing them to take the open jumper or contested shots in the paint.

Next. NBA Trade Rumors: 5 teams who should target Russell Westbrook. dark

In conclusion, the lack of shooting from Jimmy Butler and Russell Westbrook would make it difficult for the Miami Heat to have an effective offense as neither of these players can thrive off the ball.

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