Houston Rockets: James Harden should cede playmaking duties to Russell Westbrook

James Harden should cede playmaking duties to Russell Westbrook because he is a much better shooter which makes him better suited to thrive off the ball

There is a growing sentiment around the league that Russell Westbrook will have to play off the ball for he and James Harden to thrive as a duo next season. TNT NBA analyst Charles Barkley told SportsCenter last week that the Houston Rockets can only succeed if Russell Westbrook moves over to shooting guard.

However, one can argue that it would be a mistake for the Rockets to ask Russell Westbrook to play off the ball as he doesn’t possess the shooting ability to succeed in that role. Russ has shot 30.8 percent from behind the arc (making 1.1 3’s in 3.6 attempts per game) in 11 seasons.

His 3-point percentage is 4.89 percent lower than the league average [(36.7 + 35.5 + 35.8 + 34.9 +35.9 + 36 + 35 + 35.4 +35.8 + 36.1 + 35.5)/11 = 35.69] during this span.

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As a consequence, his defender can afford to sag off of him and analyze the rest of the floor to see if any of his teammates need help with their assignments.

The presence of a help defender would diminish the offensive effectiveness of James Harden as he has relied on a significant amount of isolation sets in recent years.

Harden has led all players in isolation possessions in each of the past four seasons as he has averaged 10 per game (6.9 + 6.8 +10 + 16.4)/4]. During these possessions, Harden pays close attention to who is guarding him before deciding what his next move should be.

If he were being guarded by a player who could keep up with him step for step, he would call for the big man to set a screen. The screen would create space between him and the defender, as the player guarding him has to waste a couple of seconds going over or underneath the screener’s body.

The pick would often put the opposing team in a position where they are forced to switch their defensive alignment, not wanting to risk the possibility of Harden being left open. Consequently, the defender who was supposed to guard the big man had to switch and defend him.

A switch is good for James Harden as a slower player is guarding him that he can blow by on his way to the rim or do a dribble move to create separation to shoot a jumper. On the other hand, if Harden’s original defender is slower than him, he will immediately try to isolate them.

A prime example of a Harden isolation possession was midway through the third quarter of a road game against the New Orleans Pelicans when he dribbled the basketball up the right wing until he got to the 3-point line. Upon arriving at the 3-point line, he saw that Kenrich Williams was tightly guarding him to get him off the line.

Consequently, Harden decided to blow by him and attack the basket because he knew Williams didn’t have the speed to stay in front of him. Harden had a clear path to the bucket until he approached the restricted area because Julius Randle rotated over to prevent him from getting an easy layup.

When Randle made contact with him, Harden immediately attempted a shot in hopes of getting a 3-point play. James failed to get the three-point play as the referee didn’t call a foul, but he did get two points because the shot went in.

The defense couldn’t afford to send help earlier because James was sharing the court with Chris Paul, Eric Gordon, and P.J.Tucker. All of these players have a career 3-point percentage of above 36 percent. Therefore, if one of their defenders rotated over to help Kenrich, James could pass it to the open man for a 3.

On the other hand, if Randle helped earlier, Harden could throw a lob to Clint Capela for a dunk.

The playing style of James Harden had been the primary catalyst behind Houston being in the top 5  in isolation possessions for the past four seasons. The Rockets have averaged 14.775 possessions per game [(10.5 + 10.6 + 15.6 + 22.4)/4].

The team has averaged 15.075 points per game [(9.1 + 10 + 17.5 + 23.7)/4] on isolation possessions over the last four seasons. This is 13.45 percent of Houston’s total offense as they’ve averaged 112.025 points per game [(106.5 + 115.3 + 112.4 + 113.9)/4] for the past four seasons.

Unfortunately, the presence of Russell Westbrook will diminish the occurrence of these plays for James Harden. This is because Westbrook’s defender can either double team/trap Harden or position himself behind Harden’s defender to prevent him from having a clear path towards the basket.

Consequently, Harden will have to pass the basketball or take contested shots consistently. A counter-argument to this theory would be that Westbrook will become a cutter to make the opposing team pay for leaving him open. Unfortunately, Westbrook has rarely cut to the basket over the past two seasons as he has averaged 0.35 cuts per game [{ 0.3 + 0.4)/2].

Furthermore, the Houston Rockets have ranked in the bottom 5 in cutting possessions per game over the past two seasons averaging 6.1 per game (5.8 + 6.4)/2. Consequently, it is difficult to see cutting as a viable tool that Westbrook can use to thrive off the ball.

Therefore, it would behoove James Harden to cede playmaking duties to Russell Westbrook when they share the court as he is better suited to thrive off the ball. Harden has a 3-point shooting percentage of 36.5 percent (making 2.6 3’s in 7.3 attempts per game) in 10 seasons.

This is 0.9 percent better than the league average of [( 35.5 + 35.8 + 34.9 +35.9 + 36 + 35 + 35.4 +35.8 + 36.1 + 35.5)/10) = 35.59} during that span. His above average shooting lessens the likelihood of a double team and preserves floor spacing because teams are worried about surrendering an open 3.

With Russell Westbrook as the primary ball handler, Houston doesn’t have to make any changes to their offense as he likes to isolate almost as much as Harden. Westbrook has been inside the top 10 in isolation possessions per game over the past three seasons as he has averaged 5.43 per game [(6.4 + 5.0 + 4.9)/3}.

In conclusion, the only realistic way that the Houston Rockets can approach and/or maintain the offensive effectiveness of the last couple of seasons is if James Harden plays off the ball.