Boston Celtics: Why Jayson Tatum should have a breakout season in 2019-20

The departure of Kyrie Irving has opened the door for Jayson Tatum to get more touches and have a breakout season for the Boston Celtics

There has been some discussion around the league about whether Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum can bounce back from a disappointing season and become the face of the franchise.

However, one can argue that the departure of Kyrie Irving has opened the door for Jayson Tatum to have a breakout season next year. This is because Kyrie arrived in Boston two seasons ago wanting to prove that he could lead a team to a championship as a number one option.

Kyrie told Stephen A Smith and Max Kellerman of ESPN First Take in 2017 that he was ready to be on his own when asked if he was uncomfortable with playing second fiddle to LeBron James:

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"I know the type of person I am and I know who I’m developing into and who I want to become. It never came from the fact of me wanting to be absolutely selfish and absolutely putting myself first and wanting to be the man. I don’t really have an ego. I have a presence and aura about me that’s very reality-based. It didn’t come in a form of living in this false world and not being able to tell the truth to somebody and look them in the eye, like I don’t want to do this anymore. I’m ready to move, and I’m ready to be on my own. I’m ready to try out a new situation and be in an environment where I felt like I can be happy."

The arrival of Kyrie contributed to Celtics head coach Brad Stevens making some changes to his offensive system. Prior to his arrival, the dribble handoff was a key component of Brad’s system.

Boston ranked second in dribble handoff possessions in each of the two seasons before the Kyrie Irving trade as they averaged 7.2 per game [(7.4+7)/2]. The dribble handoff sets significant dropped during his two seasons with the Celtics as they averaged 5.8 per game[ (6.1+ 5.5)/2].

Stevens decided to tailor his system to the playing style of Kyrie Irving. Kyrie was known as a player who liked to run isolation and pick and roll sets in the amateur ranks. According to Synergy Sports Technology, 45 percent of his plays at Duke came via the isolation and pick and roll variety:

"The biggest part of Irving’s offense (27%) in fact comes in transition, according to Synergy Sports Technology, and he’s been extremely efficient out in the open floor. Also seeing big chunks of usage in isolation (23%) settings and on the pick and roll (22%), the way Irving is playing and getting his production couldn’t possibly lend itself any better to the NBA style he’ll need to transition to next season."

Consequently, Stevens increased the amount of isolation and pick and roll sets in his system. Before Kyrie joined the team, Boston averaged 5.85 isolation sets per game [(5.8 + 5.9)/2] and 15.9 pick and roll sets per game [(15.7 + 16.1)/2]. Upon his arrival, they averaged 8.35 isolation sets per game [(8.9 + 7.8)/2] and 16 pick and roll sets per game [(15.7 + 16.3)/2] .

Kyrie would end up accounting for 38.9 percent of the team’s isolation sets as he averaged 3.25 per game [(3.5 +3)/2] in two seasons with Boston. Not only that but he would also account for 41.56 percent of the team’s pick and roll 6.65 per game [6.6 +6.7)/2 .

A prime example of the offensive alterations was early in the first quarter of a home game against the Cleveland Cavaliers when Jaylen Brown dribbled the basketball to the 3-point line. Once this happened, Jalen passed it to Kyrie who was standing on the right-wing. Upon receiving the ball, he attempted to isolate his defender (LeBron).

Kyrie realized that LeBron was tightly guarding him because James wanted to drive him off the 3-point line. Irving obliged as he attempted to attack the basket by going right. As Irving was getting close to the baseline, Cedi Osman rotated over to take away the open path to the basket.

Consequently, Kyrie decided to perform a behind the back dribble move which created space for him to make a mid range jumper. As the play unfolded, Jayson Tatum was on the other side of the court in the role of spectator.

The alteration caused Boston’s offense to regress as they scored 104.4 points per game through the first 67 games of the 2017-18 season. This was 3.6 points less than their average scoring output during the previous season.

Even though Boston took a step back offensively, it didn’t hinder their team success as they were the second seed in the Eastern Conference through the first 67 games of the 2017-18 season with a 46-21 record. However, the outlook of the Kyrie Irving era would drastically change after 67th game as he underwent season-ending knee surgery to remove a tension wire in his left knee.

The absence of Kyrie Irving forced other players to step up and take on a bigger role as Boston hoped to keep their championship aspirations alive. One of the players who took on a bigger role was Jayson Tatum.

Before Kyrie’s injury, Tatum spent the majority of the game in an off the ball role as he only averaged 40.6 touches per game. The limited amount of touches prevented Jayson from having a bigger impact during the early portion of his rookie year because he was known as an isolation player in amateur ranks:

According to Synergy Sports Technology, almost 25 percent of his plays at Duke came via the isolation sets:

"Tatum’s bread and butter remains his strong isolation game, where nearly a quarter of his possessions came from, according to Synergy Sports Technology. Tatum was either too big, too quick, or too skilled for virtually any defender opponents could throw his way, and Duke exploited that whenever they could, particularly as the season moved along."

Unfortunately, he would only average 1.4 isolation sets per game for the majority of his rookie season. Consequently, Tatum only averaged 13.3 points, 5 rebounds and 1.4 assists through the first 67 games of the 2017-18 season.

Kyrie’s season-ending injury allowed Stevens to give Tatum more touches as he averaged 53.1 per game during his absence. The increased touches opened the door for Tatum to run more isolation sets in the playoffs as he averaged 3.7 per game.

The combination of these factors helped Tatum average 18.5 points, 4.4 rebounds and 2.1 assists during a 19 game playoff stretch in 2018. The playoff stretch raised expectations for Jayson Tatum as most of the NBA community except for me (Tatum has hit a temporary ceiling) expected him to break out during the 2018-19 season.

Unfortunately, Tatum wasn’t able to live up to the floaty expectations due to the return of Kyrie Irving. Kyrie still viewed himself as the number one option and the leader of the team despite Tatum’s playoff success.

In fact, after a road loss to the Orlando Magic, he told the local media that his young teammates weren’t aware of the sacrifices players have to make to win a championship:

"“The young guys don’t know what it takes to be a championship level team. What it takes every day. And if they think it is hard now, what do they think it will be like when we’re trying to get to the Finals?”"

This mentality led Kyrie to have the most touches on the team as he averaged 76.8 per game. The high volume of touches allowed him to average 3.0 isolation sets per game and 6.6 pick and roll sets per game.

The presence of Kyrie hindered Tatum’s ability to thrive as he saw a dropped in his touches as he went from 53.1 to 45.3 per game. This decrease gave him fewer opportunities to isolate defenders as he went from 3.7 to 2.1 possessions per game.

The combination of these factors was the catalyst behind Tatum averaging 15.7 points, 6 rebounds and 2.1 assists. As a consequence, the departure of Kyrie should allow Brad Stevens to increase Jayson Tatum’s touches giving him the best opportunity to have a breakout season next year.