Houston Rockets The risks and rewards of the Westbrook-Harden pairing

Will the Russell Westbrook, James Harden pairing work out for the Houston Rockets and lead them to new heights in a wide-open Western Conference? Or will they be a disappointment?

This summer, the NBA underwent one of the more major changes in its history and now we find ourselves in the era of star duos.

With this new, exciting, ultra-competitive basketball landscape, there are now more teams than ever before who each think that next year is going to be theirs.

The Houston Rockets are one of those teams. And they’ll be looking to ride the coattails of their newly formed superstar duo, consisting of James Harden and Russell Westbrook.

Westbrook was traded from the Thunder to the Rockets in a blockbuster deal involving Chris Paul.

Now, at this point, Russ is a better player than CP3 so the Rockets did upgrade their talent base, but he and Harden appear to be one of the least compatible star pairings in the NBA – scratch that, the very least.

So what I wanted to do today was dive deep and analyze the potential risks and rewards of this star pairing.

Let’s get into it…

*I also talk about this topic in the most recent episode of the Around the Arc podcast which you can check out below!

On the plus side…

One thing the Westbrook-Harden duo has going for them is the fact that they’ve done it before in Oklahoma City. And they played together really well there. Although their games have changed a lot since 2012, the fact that they have experience playing with one another shouldn’t be glossed over.

They also both, clearly want this to work. After Paul George was traded to the Clippers and Russ sat down with the Thunder, Houston was one of the places he wanted to be traded to. Harden was also a major factor in getting Westbrook to H-Town so it’s clear these two think it can work – even if the rest of us remain skeptical.

Much like what he did with James and CP3, Rockets’ head coach, Mike D’Antoni can stagger the two stars’ minutes so they each see their share of time as the lone star on the court. This worked very well with James Harden and Chris Paul and it shouldn’t be any different with Russ, given that both guys are willing and capable of carrying an offense for stretches. They will, however, likely have to play between 20-25 minutes a night on the court together which is where a lot of the questions begin to arise (more on that in a bit).

And speaking of coach D’Antoni, he’ll be arguably the best coach Russ has ever played for in the NBA – certainly the best offensive coach by a long stretch. The Houston head coach just seems to have a knack for making offenses work and for unlocking players’ full offensive potential. You look at what he did with Steve Nash with phoenix and what he has done with James Harden in Houston and you’ll see what I’m talking about. I mean, he even managed to make Raymond Felton look like an all-star in 2010 when he put up 17 points and 9 assists for the Knicks! Need I say more?

And finally, the Rockets’ roster has all the pieces to allow Russell Westbrook to thrive – much like it currently allows Harden to. Clint Capela is a fairly similar center to Steven Adams, with whom Westbrook had amazing chemistry within OKC. They were lethal as a pick and roll combo and as a lob threat. He and Capela can thrive in much the same way.

And of course, we can’t forget about the shooting this team has. Although Russ may not be the most capable outside scorer, he is one of the very best distributors and passers in the league which becomes all the more dangerous when he’s surrounded by shooting.

On the downside…

The one glaring question mark when it comes to the success or failure of this duo has to be Westbrook’s outside shooting. Statistically, Russ is one of the worst perimeter shooters ever. He’s a sub-31 percent 3-point shooter for his career (that dipped to around 29% a year ago) and what’s worse is that he’s a volume shooter from the outside.

For the Westbrook-Harden pairing to work, he’s going to have to become more accurate from out there (and maybe not take quite as many per game). At times throughout his career, Russ has been solid as a catch and shoot threat but has been woefully inconsistent in this area from year to year.

Although Houston’s offense isn’t a fan of the mid-range, it would be great if Russ can regain his form from there as he used to be one of the most lethal pull-up mid-range shooters in the league. However, if he does shift focus away from his mid-range game (if that’s just not going to fit in with Houston’s scheme), there is something else he could work on.

One particular shot that Russ has never really mastered in his career has been the floater. If he can improve this, it can add another wrinkle to his scoring game, making him more unpredictable coming off screens and handoffs, while it could also serve to improve his finishing accuracy at the rim (since he won’t need to barrel his way to the basket every time he attacks).

Another thing to note is that both Harden and Westbrook are two of the highest usage players ever. In the last half-decade, no one has taken more shots than Russ…except for Harden. There are only so many possessions in a game and only so many shots to be taken. Although their usage rates will each inevitably dip – at least a little – it may still be too much of an issue to overcome.

And as these guys have become more ball-dominant over the years, each has shown a decreased interest to do much off the ball. Chris Paul complained about this and now he’s out of town. For the Westbrook-Harden pairing to work, this must change.

First off, James has to be willing to incorporate more movement into the Houston offense and secondly, both he and Russ must become more committed to playing without the ball, otherwise, the Rockets will essentially be playing four on five offense whenever those two share the floor.

Cutting more will be important (especially for Russ because of his lack of shooting) as well as setting more picks. Although neither guy is going to be like Steph Curry doing this, it will keep opposing defenses guessing and will hopefully open up more looks. This should be a point of emphasis for Harden in particular who will demand more attention because of his shooting ability. Also, if I were Mike D’Antoni, I may even experiment with a Westbrook-Harden pick and roll.

Defensively, both guys rack up steals and deflections but there is still room for improvement on that end. Harden has improved a lot on defense and for him, it’s just a matter of showcasing more consistent effort. Westbrook has the talent and ability to be a great defender and while he does show flashes, he too will need to provide more consistent effort and discipline (maybe cutting out a few of his all-or-nothing gambles). And with reduced offensive workloads, both guys will have extra energy and effort to expend on the less glamorous end. The question then becomes if either will be willing to do so.

It’ll also be interesting to see how these two fares down the stretch of close games. How will they work together in these situations? They could win 60 games in the regular season but against the other top teams – and in the playoffs especially – it will become a matter of how they close games together (and if they can do it successfully). Your turn, my turn can only work so much. They’ll have to get creative and develop a real feel for each other’s games in these clutch situations. And at the end of the day, this will be the biggest factor in determining how successful this duo can be.

And finally, since both guys are on monster contracts, it will be a challenge for Daryl Morey to add the right talent around these two. Also, if it doesn’t work out, it will only become harder to move Westbrook as he gets older, given he’ll be making $47 million when he’s 34 or 35! So this year and next will be the best – and likely only – shot for this duo to make it work.

***

When KD and Klay both went down in last year’s NBA finals, the west was blown wide open and at the time, it seemed clear that Houston was the team most likely to step in and assume control of the conference.

But now things have changed!

The Clippers and Lakers are now loaded, the Nuggets are going to be better and more experienced, the Blazers are still in the mix, the Spurs are getting Dejounte Murray back, the Mavs have added Kristaps Porzingis and Golden State are still hanging around.

There may not be an unbeatable superteam sitting atop the standings anymore, but even despite that, the west seems to be even stronger next year (it’s certainly deeper).

And that will only make the Rockets job harder and places that much more pressure on their new superstar duo.

Westbrook and Harden have the talent and potential to put Houston in the conversation with the very best of the west. The upside is Russ playing the best team ball of his career, meshing with James and pushing Houston into true contention territory. The downside could result in the crashing and burning of this current Rockets era.

And I for one, cannot wait to go along for the ride.

Do you think the Westbrook-Harden pairing is going to work? Let me know why in the comments!

*Also don’t forget to check out the Around the Arc podcast if you haven’t done already! You’ll love it, I promise!