The Toronto Raptors can be a top 3 seed in the East if Nick Nurse decides to alter his offense to feature Pascal Siakam as a point forward
There is a growing sentiment within the NBA community that the Toronto Raptors will take a significant step back next season due to the offseason departure of Kawhi Leonard. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook currently projects Toronto to finish in a tie with the Indiana Pacers for the 4th seed at 46.5 wins.
However, one would argue that Toronto can be a top 3 seed in the Eastern Conference if head coach Nick Nurse decides to alter his offense to feature Pascal Siakam as a point forward more often. This is because Nurse would have to change his offensive system from one game to another, dependent on the availability of Kawhi Leonard.
When Kawhi was on the court last season, he would often have periods of tunnel vision where his only focus was to end the possession by scoring his defender. One example of this was in a home game versus the Pacers last December when Danny Green dribbled the basketball up to the 3-point line. Once this happened, he immediately passed the ball to Kawhi who was standing on the left-wing.
Leonard proceeded to dribble the ball to the other side of the court before he asked Pascal to set a screen. Kawhi called for the screen because he wanted to create a defensive switch where Thaddeus Young would be responsible for guarding him.
His strategy would end up working as Bojan Bogdanovic, and Young switched their defensive assignments for that possession. After the switch occurred, Pascal Siakam jogged over to the left corner to watch Kawhi hit a mid-range jumper on Thaddeus Young.
Kawhi’s habit of falling into tunnel vision limited the number of open shots he created for his teammates as he generated 3.3 assists per game on 30.1 passes per game. The 30.1 passes caused him to rank 157th in the passes made category last season. His tunnel vision heavily contributed to Toronto being ranked 15th in passes made as they averaged 298.6 per game.
However, the Raptors were a significantly different team with Kawhi out of the lineup because Nick Nurse implemented more ball movement into his offensive system. The Raptors averaged 313 passes per game in the 22 games Kawhi Leonard missed because of his load management program.
This was a 9.5 percent increase from their season average of 298.6 passes per game. One of the ways, Toronto displayed their increased ball movement was by utilizing Siakam as a point forward.
A prime example of this was early in the third quarter of a road game against the Los Angeles Clippers when Fred VanVleet chose to prevent the ball from going out of bounds after Avery Bradley miss. Once this happened, he passed the ball to Siakam, who proceeded to dribble the basketball down the middle of the floor until he approached the free-throw line.
As he approached the free-throw line, Pascal realized that Marcin Gortat chose to leave Serge Ibaka open in the left corner to prevent him from having a clear path to the basket. Consequently, Siakam decided to pass the ball to Ibaka who made the open 3 to end the possession.
Pascal was a big beneficiary of the increased ball movement because he saw a meaningful uptick in his touches as he averaged 65.8 per game. This is an increase of 6.7 touches from his season average of 59.1 per game.
The increase in touches led to a boost in drives per game as he averaged 8.6 per game. This was an increase of 1 drive per game from his season average of 7.6. Pascal proceeded to average 6.2 points and 0.7 assists on these drives. This was an increase of 0.8 points and 0.2 assists per game from his season average of 5.4 points and 0.5 assists .
The combination of these factors helped him average 19 points, 7.9 rebounds and 3.38 assists per game. This was an of 2.1 points, 1 rebound, 0.28 assists and 6.7 touches a game from his season average of 16.9 points, 6.9 rebounds and 3.1 assists per game.
Pascal’s improved stats helped Toronto amass a 17-5 record in Kawhi’s absence. Pascal’s increased role improved the team’s offense as they averaged 116.8 points per game. This was 2.4 points better than their season average of 114.4.
Consequently, Nurse should increase the number of possessions where Siakam is a point forward as it would give them a chance to approximate the regular season results posted by the 2018-19 Milwaukee Bucks.
Just like Milwaukee, Toronto will have two perimeter players in their starting lineup who have a career 3-point percentage of above 36 percent in Fred VanVleet and Kyle Lowry. Toronto also has a starting center in Marc Gasol who has slowly incorporated the 3-pointer into his arsenal.
In the first eight seasons of his career, Marc Gasol rarely took a 3-pointer attempting 0.1 per game. However, he has attempted 3.8 per game over the past three seasons, making them at a 36.2 percent clip.
Furthermore, Pascal is not going to be as big of a liability off the ball as he had a better 3-point percentage last season than Giannis Antetokounmpo. Pascal shot 36.9 percent from behind the arc, which was 9.2 percent better than Giannis. Therefore, his defender has to stay closer to him, which further opens up the floor for the rest of his teammates.
In conclusion, increasing the number of point forward possessions for Pascal Siakam enhances the chances of Toronto capturing a top 3 seed in 2019-20.