Los Angeles Clippers: Paul George could keep the team from the NBA Finals

After inking Kawhi Leonard, Paul George could be the reason why the Los Angeles Clippers fail to make a run to the NBA Finals

There is a growing sentiment around the league that the Los Angeles Clippers will capture the top seed in the Western Conference due to the acquisition of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. Las Vegas Westgate currently projects the Clippers to finish in a three-way tie atop the Western Conference with 54.5 wins.

However, one can argue that Los Angeles shouldn’t be considered the favorite to capture the top seed because of health concerns that surround both of their stars. In fact, Paul George sustained an injury to his right shoulder during the second half of last season.

Adrian Wojnarowski and Royce Young of ESPN wrote an article after the Oklahoma City Thunder were eliminated from the playoffs detailing the extent of his injury. The stated that Paul George suffered a partially torn tendon in his right rotator cuff on February 26th versus the Denver Nuggets.

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George decided to play through the injury because he was informed that the rotator cuff wasn’t at risk of suffering any more damage.

After sustaining the injury, Paul George experienced a significant reduction in his statistics as he averaged 26.1 points, 3.7 assists on 40.4 percent shooting from the field and a 3-point percentage of 34.8 percent. This is a decrease of 2.6 points, 0.5 assists, 4.7 percent shooting from the field and 5.5 percent from behind the arc.

The statistical drop off played a vital part in the Thunder averaging 111.1 points per game after the injury occurred. This was a decrease of 4.9 points per game from the previous 59 games.

The combination of these factors led to Oklahoma City a record of 9-9 during Paul’s final 18 games of the regular season. The mediocre record made them slip in the Western Conference standing as they went from a third seed to a sixth seed.

The sixth seed gave them a first-round matchup against the Portland Trail Blazers who eliminated the team in five games.

Unfortunately, the partially torn tendon wasn’t the only injury that was revealed in the article as they said that Paul had a small labrum tear in his left shoulder. Paul addressed both injuries by going under the knife as doctors repaired his partially torn rotator cuff on May 7th. Just over a month later, he underwent surgery to fix the small tear in his labrum.

Paul George’s recovery will most likely force him to miss the beginning of next season. Kevin O’Connor of the Ringer stated on the August 6th episode of “The Mismatch” podcast that Paul George will likely miss the first six weeks of the regular season.

The potential absence of Paul George would force the Los Angeles Clippers to make a strategical decision to start the season. Los Angeles would have to choose between potentially sacrificing early regular-season games to keep Kawhi Leonard on a load management program or trying to win early regular-season games increasing the likelihood that the body of Kawhi breaks down.

If the team chooses to sacrifice some early regular-season games to keep Kawhi, it would mean that Lou Willams is the best offensive player on the roster as he averaged 20 points per game last season. Unfortunately, when Lou Williams is on the floor, the team’s offense devolves into him trying to score out of the pick and roll.

A prime example of this was late in the first quarter of Game 5 against the Golden State Warriors when Patrick Beverley grabbed an offensive rebound and passed the ball to Montrezl Harrell who was standing at the top of the key. Montrezl immediately gave the basketball to Lou Williams, who was standing next to him.

Once this happened, Montrezl set a screen for Lou to initiate the pick and roll set. Lou proceeded to go over the screen and realize that his defender Stephen Curry was positioned below the free-throw line because he got bumped by JaMychal Green, causing him to fall. The fall allowed Williams to take and make a wide-open mid-range floater.

Fifty-three percent of Lou’s points last season came from the pick and roll as he averaged 10.6 per game on 11.1 possessions per game. Not only that but he accounted for 45.68 percent of the team’s pick and roll offense as the team was second in the league averaging 23.2 points per game.

Lou’s habit would make it easier for opponents to game plan for the Clippers as opposing head coaches can tell their players to stay with their original assignments. This means that Williams will have single coverage increasing the likelihood that he’ll look to score on every possession as Lou only passes the ball when he can’t get an open shot.

A prime example of this was late in the first quarter of Game 5 against the Warriors when Lou had the ball on the right-wing and decided to dribble it to the left wing as he attempted to get separation from his defender, Draymond Green. Once Lou realized that he could not separate from Draymond, he passed the ball to Danilo Gallinari.

Lou’s mentality contributed to him only making 34.9 passes per game. A Lou Williams led Clippers team will have difficulty putting up enough points to beat most Western Conference team causing the organization to lose ground in the standings.

On the other hand, if the Los Angeles Clippers prioritize winning early games, Kawhi will have to play a significant amount of minutes ( at least 36 per game) for the team to be successful during the early portion of the season. This is because the organization has a difficult schedule to start the season as the team faces the Los Angeles Lakers, Warriors, San Antonio Spurs, Utah Jazz, and Milwaukee Bucks within the first three weeks of the season.

Unfortunately, Kawhi has been dealing with a recurring right quadriceps injury for the past two seasons. He only played 9 games for the Spurs in 2017-18 due to a condition called quadriceps tendinopathy. According to ESPN, quadriceps tendinopathy is a disease of the tendon that has a degenerative effect on the muscle by keeping it in a constant state of exhaustion.

According to Sam Amick and Joe Vardon of The Athletic, Kawhi felt the effects of his quadriceps tendinopathy this past season as he started to experience left knee soreness in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals trying to overcompensate for the condition.

The overcompensation is directly related not getting a chance to rest his quad in the playoffs as he averaged 37.7 minutes per game in the first 14 playoff games. This was an increase of 3.7 minutes per game from the regular season. Therefore, the only way he could alleviate the pressure from his quad was shift his body weight on the left leg.

Consequently, having Kawhi play significant minutes early on will increase the likelihood that his legs start to wear down earlier in the regular season. The potential of Kawhi wearing down earlier than expected opens the door to a scenario where the team has to shut him down at some point in the regular season to make sure his legs are refreshed for the playoffs.

The team’s best shot at obtaining the top seed in the West is if Paul George recovers ahead of schedule and is cleared to play at the beginning of the season. Paul’s availability would allow head coach Doc Rivers to manage Kawhi’s minutes because he will have one star on the floor at all times; which increases the likelihood that the team can maintain or expand leads with Leonard on the bench.

On the other hand, if Paul George is unavailable, the team would take itself out of contention for the top seed because Kawhi will have to miss some games to preserve his legs. Taking yourself out of contention increases the likelihood that they will have a competitive series in the first round of the playoffs.

For example, they could face Portland, Golden State or San Antonio in the first round which means an extended series for the team before they move on to the second round. In the second round they could potentially face the Jazz, Lakers or Nuggets increasing the chances of getting another prolonged series for the team.

The prolonged series will take a toll on Kawhi’s legs dramatically lowering the chances that they make it out of the Western Conference.