Miami Heat: How the team will be affected by the arrival of Jimmy Butler

The arrival of Jimmy Butler will put the Miami Heat in a difficult position next season because they made a promise to acquire another star but they can’t fulfill this promise unless he accepts to play off the ball

"To be persistent. Whether it takes days, months or even years, expect the Heat to remain on the hunt for a second established star to pair with Jimmy Butler. The Heat pitched Butler on becoming the first established star to join the current roster, with the understanding the organization would be aggressive in trying to add another, according to a league source."

Anthony Chiang of the Miami Herald said this last week in regards to how the Miami Heat convinced Jimmy Bulter to sign with them during free agency two months ago. However, one can argue that the team’s promise to Bulter will put them in a difficult position next season as they would need to showcase their best tradable asset to increase the likelihood of acquiring another star.

Miami’s best tradable asset going into next season is Justise Winslow. Justise gained the reputation in the amateur ranks of a player who needed to have the ball in hands to be a capable offensive player.

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According to Johnathan Givoy and Mike Schmidt of Draft Express, Justise thrived in a point forward role at Duke:

"Winslow is a solid passer who rarely turns the ball over. He’s excellent in transition, where he finds himself frequently with his aggressive style of play, and can also go down to the low post and punish opposing players with his strong frame.While not the fanciest ball-handler, he can create a little off the dribble as well thanks to his quick first step, strong frame and incisive nature."

Winslow was able to put his playmaking skills on display when the Miami Heat were forced to make him the primary ball-handler on December 8th against the Los Angeles Clippers. He was thrust into the primary ball handler position prior to that game because Goran Dragic was out with right knee discomfort and Josh Richardson had to miss the game due to right shoulder impingement.

The gamble paid off for the Miami Heat as Winslow had 21 points and nine assists in 39 minutes played. Justise was able to accumulate these statistics because head coach Erik Spoelstra put him in the point forward role.

A prime example of this was midway through the second when James Johnson grabbed the rebound and passed the ball to Justise. Window dribbled the basketball down the left side of the court until he got near the rim.

As he approached the basket, Justise realized that three clippers were surrounding him. As a consequence, he passed the ball to Kelly Olynyk who was standing in the right corner for an open 3.

Winslow’s statistics helped the Miami Heat get a 23-point victory as they beat the Clippers, 121-98. Erik Spoelstra would keep Justise Winslow in the point forward role for the next few months Goran missed 31 out of the next 32 games with continued discomfort in his right knee. Amid this stretch, the organization announced that Dragic would undergo arthroscopic surgery to alleviate the pain in his right knee.

The absence of Goran Dragic gave Justise an opportunity to spend more time in the point forward role as he averaged 75.9 touches per game. This is an increase of 25.4 touches from the previous 3 seasons where he averaged 50.5 per game. The increase in touches led to a boost in drives per game as he averaged 9.3 per game during the stretch Goran was out.

This was an increase of 4.24 drives per game from his drives over the previous three seasons as he averaged 5.06 per game.

Justise proceeded to average 4.7 points and one assist on these drives. This was an increase of 2.4 points and 0.47 assists per game from his averages of the previous three seasons (2.3 points and 0.53 assists). The combination of these factors helped him average 13.8 points and 4.7 assists per game. This was an increase of 5.3 points 2.7 assists from his averages of the previous three seasons (7.5 points and 2 assists).

Consequently, it would behoove the Heat to use Justise Winslow in a similar role next season to increase his value which betters their chances of getting another star. Using Winslow as a point forward would force Jimmy Butler to play off the ball which puts a spotlight on his biggest weakness, shooting.

Jimmy Butler has a career 3-point shooting percentage of 34.1 percent ( making 0.9 3’s in 2.7 attempts) in eight seasons. Jimmy’s 3-point percentage has been 1.4 percent lower than the league average of 35.58 percent during this span. As a consequence, the team would be at a constant four on five disadvantage on the offensive side of the floor because opponents can leave him open to provide help defense on Justise.

Not only would playing off the ball be a bad fit for Jimmy, but he also doesn’t enjoy being in the role either. According to ESPN, two months into his tenure with the Philadelphia 76ers, Jimmy expressed concern about the lack of isolation and pick and roll ran by head coach Brett Brown:

"Butler has expressed a desire to teammates to play in more traditional pick-and-roll and isolation sets, rather than trying to find his place in the Sixers’ free-flowing offense, league sources said. In searching for answers, Butler has met privately with Brown and his coaching staff, as well as general manager Elton Brand."

Therefore, history tells us that Jimmy Butler will express displeasure about Justise Winslow being the primary ball-handler next season. Consequently, the Heat could stagger the minutes of Jimmy and Justise to appease Butler when he is on the court while at the same time giving Winslow an opportunity to showcase his talents.

The idea of separating Jimmy and Justise means that Butler would be the team’s best perimeter defender when he is on the court. Unfortunately, Jimmy Butler’s defensive effort has slowly started to regress as he has been given a bigger offensive role. For instance, during the 2013-14 season, Jimmy had a small offensive role as he only touched the ball 50.7 times a game.

The small offensive role allowed him to spend a greater amount of energy on defense as he ran 1.26 miles per game on the defensive side of the court at a speed of 4.07 miles per hour. However, over the next five seasons, Jimmy averaged 62.38 touches per game.

The increased amount of touches caused Jimmy Butler to give less of a defensive effort as he ran 1.22 miles per game on the defensive side of the court at a speed of 4.03 miles per hour.

Therefore, Jimmy would have to give up some of his ball-handling duties in an attempt to raise his defensive effort. If he refuses, the Miami Heat can either try to win offensive shootouts or play Justise off the ball which would improve the team’s defense and gives them the best opportunity to win games immediately.

The downside to playing Justise off the ball is that it would put a spotlight on his biggest weakness, shooting. Winslow has a career shooting percentage of 34.3 percent from behind the arc. As a consequence, defenders will give Justise space to encourage him to shoot the 3-pointer when he has the ball.

The Heat would be putting a limit on the trade value of Justise Winslow because they would be showcasing his weakness instead of his strength. In conclusion, the Miami Heat will be in a difficult position because they either choose to win games immediately at the potential expense of acquiring another star or increase the likelihood of losing games to better their chances of getting another star.