Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder
Why he’ll have a breakout year
Oklahoma City is rebuilding and they have to see what they have with Shai so the opportunities should be there for him. Shai had a rookie season that exceeded even the most bullish projections for him after he was picked 11th overall in the 2018 draft, but I think that’s just the tip of the iceberg.
Carving out a role on a playoff team as a rookie is hard to do, but Shai did that almost immediately and was essential down the stretch for the Clippers. And perhaps the most exciting part about it was that he elevated his game in the playoffs against the best team in basketball (sorry Toronto). It’s rare to see a rookie in his first playoff series ever not just increase his scoring, but become even more efficient in doing so. Granted it’s a small sample in the playoffs, but that’s the kind of play that you want to see from young players in big games.
Why he might not have a breakout year
Chris Paul‘s presence might be a problem for him, despite being the reason that they were able to get Russell Westbrook out of there and clear a path for Shai’s growth. When the Thunder traded Russell Westbrook to Houston for Chris Paul, it was probably the best thing for Shai’s development at the time. That’s not a knock on Westbrook, but he doesn’t really like it when anyone else has the ball…ever (okay, it was a knock on Westbrook).
Old man Chris Paul is still holding on to his NBA life and is a pretty ball-dominant player in his own right, sporting a usage rate above 22 percent in all but one of his 14 NBA seasons. He also doesn’t always play nice with others as I’m sure James Harden would confirm, but with his injury history and general decline as a player, it’s hard to imagine the Thunder letting him play big minutes and stunt Shai’s growth.
All of that being said, if the Thunder end up being more competitive than we think and Chris Paul is healthy, then there is definitely a path where Shai plateaus right around where he was last year and doesn’t take that jump. Then again, the Thunder could still try to trade Paul which would make all of this a moot point.