New York Knicks: Expectations should be low for RJ Barrett in 2019-20

Exploring how the presence of Dennis Smith Jr and Elfrid Payton should lower expectations for RJ Barrett next season for the New York Knicks

The co-founder of Apple Computers, Steve Jobs once said: “you cannot mandate productivity, you must provide the tools to let people become their best.” Jobs’ philosophy is the approach the New York Knicks should take when evaluating RJ Barrett‘s rookie season as they haven’t surrounded him with the proper pieces to succeed.

RJ Barrett developed a reputation in the amateur ranks of being a player who thrives with the ball in his hands. According to Chris Stone of Sporting News, RJ’s best attribute is his ability to attack the basket and score around the rim:

"Barrett’s most refined skill at this stage is his ability to attack and score around the basket. He excels as a straight line threat thanks to lengthy strides that allow him to eat up space, but he can also change directions with a couple go-to moves. Once at the rim, he’s a creative finisher who can re-adjust midair to avoid defenders."

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Unfortunately, RJ is unlikely to be a primary ball-handler for New York as the team already has two perimeter players ( Dennis Smith Jr and Elfrid Payton) on the roster who can only be effective with the ball in their hands. Dennis Smith was known in amateur ranks as a player who flourished in the pick and roll.

Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmidt of Draft Express praised Smith for his ability to analyze the floor and create separation out of the pick and roll during his lone season at NC State:

"During his lone season at NC. State,” he posted a solid 6.8 assists per-40 pace adjusted, the fourth best rate in our Top-100, as he is capable of creating space, surveying the floor and passing the ball with either hand out of pick and roll situations, sometimes in very impressive fashion”."

The pick and roll have continued to have a big impact on his career as it has played a pivotal role in projecting how Dennis will perform during a single season. Dallas Mavericks head coach Rick Carlisle allowed Dennis to run a pick and roll 6.1 times per game during his rookie season.

He was able to generate 4.3 points per game from the 6.1 pick and roll possessions. The 4.3 points accounted for 28.2 percent of his total scoring output as he averaged 15.2 points per game in his first season as a professional.

Sadly Dennis saw a meaningful decrease in his pick and roll possessions in his second year as he averaged 5.1 per game. The 8.36 percent reduction in pick and roll possessions led to a decrease in production out of the play type as he averaged 3.8 points per game.

This was a decrease of 0.5 points per game from the previous season. The reduction in pick and roll production contributed to a decline in his total scoring output as he averaged 12.9 points per game.

The reduction of his pick and roll possessions played in him asking to be traded before the trading deadline back in February. According to ESPN, Dennis asked for a trade because Luka Doncic had become the focal point of the offense:

"Smith expressed that he hopes to be traded. Sources said Smith was frustrated with his role and had friction with Carlisle since Rookie of the Year front-runner Luka Doncic seized the reins of the offense."

The Mavericks granted his wish on February 1st as he was traded to the New York Knicks as a part of a package to acquire Kristaps Porzings. Upon arriving in New York, he saw a significant increase in his pick and roll possessions as he averaged 7.9 pick and roll possessions per game.

He was able to generate 6.3 points per game from the 7.9 pick and roll possessions. The 6.3 points accounted for 42.8 percent of his total scoring output as he averaged 14.7 points per game in the back half of his second season as a professional.

Dennis Smith Jr isn’t the only person on the Knicks roster who needs the basketball to be an effective player as Elfrid Payton felt most comfortable being a playmaker in transition as he progressed through the amateur ranks. According to Matt Kamalsky of Draft Express, Elfrid was first among guards in transition possessions per game during the 2014 college basketball season:

"Payton finished 1st among his peers using 5.1 possessions per-game in transition and shooting 63.4% on the break as his size and athleticism made him a dynamic threat in space in the Sun Belt conference."

The transition game has continued to play a vital role in the career of Elfrid Payton because his best offensive season came when he averaged a career-high in transition possessions per game. Elfrid averaged 4.1 transition possessions per game in 44 games with the Orlando Magic during the 2017-18 season.

This allowed him to average a career-high 4.3 points per game in transition. The 4.3 points accounted for 33.07 percent of his total scoring output as he averaged a career-high 13 points per game in the first half of his fourth season as a professional.

If the New York Knicks want to bring out the best in these two players, head coach David Fizdale will have to put the basketball in their hands. This would force RJ Barrett to spend more time off the ball next season essentially placing a spotlight on his biggest weakness, shooting.

RJ shot 30.8 percent from behind the arc in his only season at Duke. His shooting struggles continued in summer league as he shot 28.6 percent from behind the arc in 4 games with the Knicks.

As a consequence, the team would be at a constant four on five disadvantage on the offensive side of the floor because opponents can leave him open to provide help defense on Dennis or Elfrid.

On the other hand, if David Fizdale were to make RJ Barrett the primary ball-handler, he would face constant double team because Dennis and Elfrid struggle to make a 3-pointer consistently. Dennis and Elfrid have a career 3-point shooting of 31.6 and 30.2 percent respectively.

A potential double team would be bad for RJ as he struggled to get separation from defenders in single coverage during summer league. Johnathan Wassermann of Bleacher Report detailed this when recapping RJ Barrett’s summer league performance:

"The No. 1 concern that’s stood out has been Barrett’s inability to blow by or create separation. He’s dribbling upright, as opposed to low to the ground. Too often as a ball-hander, he’s had to turn his back to the basket and his defender, unable to gain a step and get by."

The combination of these factors will make it difficult for RJ Barrett to have success during the first half of his rookie year. Ideally, RJ should be surrounded by three above-average shooters when he is on the floor. Having three shooters on the floor lessens the likelihood of a double team and preserves floor spacing because teams are worried about surrendering an open 3.

A prime example of how the Knicks should have built their roster can be found midway through the third quarter of a Houston Rockets road game against the New Orleans Pelicans. James Harden dribbled the basketball up the right wing until he got to the 3-point line. Upon arriving at the 3-point line, he saw that Kenrich Williams was tightly guarding him to get him off the line.

Consequently, Harden decided to blow by him and attack the basket because he knew Williams didn’t have the speed to stay in front of him. Harden had a clear path to the bucket until he approached the restricted area because Julius Randle rotated over to prevent him from getting an easy layup.

When Randle made contact with him, Harden immediately attempted a shot in hopes of getting a 3-point play. James failed to get the 3-point play as the referee didn’t call a foul, but he did get two points because the shot went in.

The defense couldn’t afford to send help earlier because James was sharing the court with Chris Paul, Eric Gordon, and PJ Tucker. All of these players have a career 3-point percentage of above 36 percent. Therefore, if one of their defenders rotated over to help Kenrich, James could pass it to the open man for a 3.

On the other hand, if Randle helped earlier, Harden could throw a lob to Clint Capela for a dunk.

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Unfortunately, Ian Begley of SNY has already reported that Dennis Smith and Elfrid Payton will be competing for the starting point guard job. Whoever loses the competition will be the backup meaning that RJ is going to constantly share the floor with one of them.

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