2. MVP up for grabs. Who takes it?
Much Like the race for team supremacy, the MVP race is wide open. The top 10 Vegas odds for MVP, in order, are Giannis Antetokounmpo (+300), Stephen Curry (+500), James Harden (+700), Kawhi Leonard (+800), LeBron James (+900), Anthony Davis (+1000), Joel Embiid (+1200), Luka Doncic (+1600), Nikola Jokic (+1600), and Karl-Anthony Towns (+2000).
Right off the bat, we can probably rule out Luka and KAT. Luka took the league by storm last season, putting up a stat line we hadn’t seen from a rookie since LeBron. I believe he’ll win an MVP, he’s that good. But the Mav’s are at best a fringe 8th seed and I envision a gradual accent more than a huge, second-year leap for Luka. Kat is already a dominant offensive force, with a skill set few big men can match. But puzzling defensive struggles have plagued him his entire career, and like Luka, his team is barely a playoff contender.
After the two, I believe everyone has a path to the crown. Jokic and Embiid share the same path. Get a top 2 seed, dominate statistically, and they’ll be right there (Embiid must stay healthy and Jokic must improve defensively). Davis and LeBron are somewhat tied to each other. Their candidacy hinges on the heights the Lakers reach.
The case for each: AD averages 25/10+/4 with 2+ blocks and 1 steal, wins DPOY, and the Lakers earn a top 2 seed. LeBron averages 28/8/8, increases his defense, AD misses time but Lakers still claim a top seed (Or AD stays healthy and the Lakers are the class of the NBA).
I don’t buy Kawhi playing enough games to be a candidate. I think at this point in his career, regardless of the team, he’s a 55-65 game a year player. But assuming he plays more than that, he has to be included due to his all-around dominance. James Harden just has to do what he’s been doing. He’s finished in the top 2 of the voting four of the last five years, winning the award in 2018. See the previous topic about why it could fall apart.
And finally, Steph and the Freak. For Giannis, the path is like Harden’s. Even if he doesn’t improve, which I think he could, if he just stands pat and the Bucks repeat as the class of the East, Giannis will be there in the end. I mean how many players can average Just under 28 points per game, 13 rebounds, 5 assists on ridiculous efficiency while being a DPOY candidate?
Only Davis comes close. As for Steph, it’s also quite simple. Lead the Warriors to a higher than expected seed (Top 5 would probably suffice), while replicating or coming close to the 2016 version of himself. People took Curry for granted during KD’s tenure in the Bay. They won’t have that option going forward.