New Orleans Pelicans: Is Zion Williamson set up to fail during his rookie season?

David Griffin’s inability to acquire 3-point shooting should make it hard for Zion Williamson to thrive during his rookie season with the New Orleans Pelicans

There is a growing sentiment among NBA media members that New Orleans Pelicans forward Zion Williamson will win the NBA’s Rookie of the Year award next season. ESPN conducted a poll where 72.7 percent of their basketball experts picked Zion to win the award.

However, one can argue that the expectations for Zion Williamson’s rookie season should be lowered significantly. This is because GM David Griffin hasn’t surrounded Zion with the proper pieces for him to thrive as a player.

Zion gained a reputation in the amateur ranks as a player who thrives with the ball in his hands. Kevin O’Connor of the Ringer heaped praise upon Zion’s playmaking ability when describing a play he made against the Kentucky Wildcats last season:

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"Zion skies over a defender for a rebound, takes the ball up the court, then hits Tre Jones with the bounce pass for a layup. It’s not an exaggeration to say the last player to possess this type of skill with similar physical makeup was Charles Barkley. That’s what makes Williamson such a fascinating fit for the NBA. In today’s positionless league, Williamson could serve as the screener or as the ball handler in the pick-and-roll."

The skillset of Zion Williamson dictates that he should be a point forward. A point forward needs to be surrounded by multiple above-average shooters to reach their full potential. Having multiple shooters puts opposing teams in a pickle as they have to decide between pay attention to the point forward or the shooters.

If opposing teams decide to stop the point forward by trying to double or triple-teaming him. The point forward has the option to kick the ball out to the perimeter for an open 3. On the other hand, if the opposing team stays close to the shooters, he will face single coverage, increasing the likelihood that the power forward gets an open look at the basket.

A prime example of this was found midway through the first quarter of a Cleveland Cavaliers road game against the Atlanta Hawks in March of 2017. LeBron James dribbled the basketball up the right-wing until he got to the 3-point line. Upon arriving at the 3-point line, he saw that Dennis Schroder had left an above-average shooter in Kyrie Irving (39 percent from 3) open in the right corner to pay attention to him.

Consequently, LeBron passed the basketball to Kyrie but Schröder was able to recover before Irving could take the shot. The recovery forced Kyrie to pass the ball to another above-average shooter in Channing Fyre (38.8 percent from 3) who left open on the right-wing. Channing took and made the wide-open 3 to end the possession.

Unfortunately, if a point forward isn’t surrounded by above-average shooters, opposing teams only have to worry about clogging up the paint to stop the point forward. A prime example of this was midway through the first quarter of a Detroit Pistons home game against the Washington Wizards when Reggie Jackson passed the ball to Blake Griffin who had established post position on the right mid-block.

When Blake received it, he immediately got double teamed by Trevor Ariza and Thomas Bryant forcing him to pass the ball to Andre Drummond. Bradley Beal and Jeff Green surrounded Andre as he received the pass to end the possession with a dunk.

The paint was clogged because Detroit did not have an above-average shooter on the floor during that possession. Unfortunately, the New Orleans Pelicans fall in the second category as their projected starting lineup is littered with below-average shooters. Brandon Ingram, Derrick Favors, Jrue Holiday and Lonzo Ball have a career 3-point percentage below the league average of 35.6 percent.

Consequently, opponents leave them wide open when they are in the role of a 3-point shooter as 83 percent of those field goal attempts are uncontested. Therefore, opponents can focus on clogging up the paint to stop Zion Williamson.

Clogging the paint forces Zion to choose between two less than ideal options kicking it out to the perimeter for an open 3 or take a shot. If he kicks it out, it’ll be a low percentage shot for the organization because he is surrounded by mostly non-shooters.

Throughout the season, he’ll realize this problem and be more hesitant to pass the ball. As a consequence, Zion will attempt to barrel over the opposing players to take more contested shots.

The lack of shooting should put Zion Williamson in the same position Blake Griffin where he should be near the top of the league in heavily contested shot attempts. Blake led the league last season in heavily contested shot attempts averaging 3.5 per game.

A potential counter-argument against this is David Griffin’s comments about who will be the focal point of the offense next season:

"This is Jrue Holiday’s team. When we made the trade that we made– or are working to complete rather– with a certain player that used to be here with Jrue, we were very cognizant of the fact that this is Jrue Holiday’s team. From the moment that I got here on the ground, the very first conversation I had with [Holiday], I challenged him and he has responded to it every step along the way."

If David Griffin holds to these comments, the Pelicans will run an offense similar to last season. The Pelicans heavily relied on their transition offense previous season as they were sixth in the league in transition possessions averaging 20.9 per game.

The 20.9 possessions generated 21.4 points per game for New Orleans. The 21.4 points accounted for 18.5 percent of their total offense last season as they averaged 115.4 points per game. Unfortunately, the lack of shooting will still be a big problem as opposing teams only have to focus on getting to the paint to stop them from getting easy looks at the rim.

In conclusion, David Griffin’s failure to surround Zion Williamson with the proper pieces will make it difficult for him to thrive in his rookie season.