It would behoove the Dallas Mavericks to start Seth Curry at point guard next season to open up the floor for the rest of the team
There is a prevailing thought around the league that Dallas Mavericks head coach Rick Carlisle will name Delon Wright the starting point guard. ESPN is one of the media outlets which has Wright listed as the team’s starting point guard before the beginning of training camp.
However, one can argue that Rick Carlisle should start Seth Curry at point guard as it would improve the team’s floor spacing. This is because Rick has designed an offense that is heavily reliant on ball movement to generate points. His offense forces players to become spot-up shooters or roll to the basket when they don’t have the ball in their hands.
A prime example of this can be found during a Mavericks home game against the San Antonio Spurs when Jalen Brunson dribbled the ball to the 3-point line. Once this happened, Brunson passed the basketball to Dorian Finney-Smith who was standing on the left wing.
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Finney-Smith held the ball until Dwight Powell made his way from the left block to about the elbow. After this occurred, Finney-Smith gave the ball to Powell and spent the rest of the possession in the left corner as a bystander/spot-up shooter.
When Finney-Smith vacated the left-wing for the corner, Brunson decided to occupy the empty spot on the left-wing for the rest of the possession to be a bystander/spot-up shooter.
The possession would end with Powell initiating a dribble handoff sequence with Luka Doncic. When Doncic got the ball, he used Powell as a screener to turn the corner and get to the basket. After Doncic turned the corner, Powell rolled to the basketball where he and Doncic would mistime a lob.
Carlise’s offense helped Dallas become one of the best passing teams in the league over the past six seasons as they were in the top 10 in passes made per game four times (2013-14, 2014-15, 2015-16 and 2018-19) during this span averaging 310.2. Unfortunately, the ball movement system has generated mixed results as success is dependent on 3-point shooting.
The Dallas Mavericks posted their best offensive numbers when they have multiple above-average shooters on the floor. The two most productive offensive lineups for the Mavs last season featured two above-average shooters in Harrison Barnes (37.4 percent) and Wesley Mathews (38.2 percent) .
For example, the lineup featuring JJ Barea, Wesley Matthews, Harrison Barnes, Luka Doncic and DeAndre Jordan generated seven more assists than the opponents in 41 minutes together. The seven more assists helped that lineup outscore opposing teams by 23.7 points per game.
The second best lineup featured Dennis Smith Jr, Wesley Matthews, Harrison Barnes, Dorian Finney-Smith and DeAndre Jordan. This unit created 10.2 more assists than the opponents, which helped them outscore opposing teams by 20.2 points in over 54 minutes on the court.
Conversely, the Mavs had a difficulty time being competitive last year if there was only one above average shooter on the floor in Dirk Nowitzki (38 percent). For instance, the lineup of.JJ Barea, Devin Harris, Dorian Finney-Smith, Dirk Nowitzki and Dwight Powell generated -10.1 assists in over 77 minutes together. The -10.1 assists helped them getting outscored by 23.6 points per game.
The starting lineup for the 2019-20 Mavericks currently falls in the second category as Kristaps Porzings is the only shooter projected to start. Delon Wright, Luka Doncic, Tim Hardaway Jr and Dwight Powell have all shot below league average over the past six seasons (35.6 percent).
As a consequence, the opposing team will leave them open and dare those players to take the inefficient shot. A minimum of 75 percent of their 3-point field goal attempts have been uncontested by the defense.
Consequently, the opposing team will clog the paint against Dallas next season. Clogging the paint forces the ball handler to choose between two less than ideal options kicking it out to the perimeter for an open 3 or take a shot. If they kick it out, it’ll be a low percentage shot for the organization because four non-shooters surround them.
Throughout the season, they’ll realize this problem and be more hesitant to pass the ball. As a consequence, the ball handler will attempt to barrel over the opposing players to take more contested shots.
The lack of shooting should put Dallas in a similar position to the 2018-19 Detroit Pistons where they are forced to take a significant amount of heavily contested shots. The Pistons being ranked fifth in heavily contested shot attempts as they averaged 11.3 per game.
Therefore, Rick Carlisle should start Seth Curry at point guard because he has a career 3-point shooting percentage of 43.9 percent. Seth’s ability to shoot will open up the floor for the team as a defender is going to stay close to him.
Consequently, there will only be three defenders in the paint instead of four. Not only that but the addition of Seth will give the team a multiple shooter lineup as Kristaps Porzings will be the starting power forward; increasing the likelihood of scoring more points which would allow them to be more competitive early in games.