NBA: 6 teams who will go over/under their expected win total

NBA Sacramento Kings De'Aaron Fox (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)
NBA Sacramento Kings De'Aaron Fox (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)
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LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – JULY 24: Kawhi Leonard and Paul George of the Los Angeles Clippers are introduced at Green Meadows Recreation Center on July 24, 2019 in Los Angeles, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images)
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – JULY 24: Kawhi Leonard and Paul George of the Los Angeles Clippers are introduced at Green Meadows Recreation Center on July 24, 2019 in Los Angeles, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images)

Los Angeles Clippers: 53.5 (+100) – Under 

Don’t get me wrong, me taking the under for the Los Angeles Clippers at 53.5 is not a reflection of what I think of them as a team. In fact, if I had to make a pick for the NBA Finals right now before watching any of the games, I’d probably pick the Clippers to win it all. But 54 wins is a LOT of wins.

If you could guarantee me that Paul George is healthy and Kawhi Leonard is going to play 75-plus games this year, then I’d be on board with the over, but I don’t think that’s the case. Per The Athletic (subscription required), Paul George hasn’t been cleared for on-court work and “sounds doubtful to be out there on opening night.”

Unlike Paul George, the issue with Kawhi Leonard’s isn’t recovering from an injury, it’s that he does so much load management to prevent such an injury. For the record, I’m pro-load management, that’s not what this is about. But if he only plays 60 games like he did last year, then it’s really hard for me to see this group getting to 54 wins. I really like their roster from top to bottom, but do I trust the supplemental pieces to win 54 games with PG and Kawhi in and out of the lineup? I don’t.