Exploring what steps the Milwaukee Bucks need to take to win the NBA championship in 2019-20
There is prevailing thought around the league that the Milwaukee Bucks are the favorites to represent the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals. OddShark currently has the Bucks as the favorite to win the Eastern Conference at +225.
However, one can argue that the team must put Eric Bledsoe in the best position to succeed if they want to reach and win the finals. Bledsoe’s statistical success over the last couple of seasons has been dependent on the amount of pick and roll sets he is allowed to run per game.
Former Phoenix Suns head coach Jeff Hornacek allowed Bledsoe to run a pick and roll 8.1 times per game during the 2015-16 season. He was able to generate 7.9 points per game from the 8.1 pick and roll possessions. The 7.9 points accounted for 38.7 percent of his total scoring output as he averaged 20.4 points per game.
Bledsoe saw a significant increase in his pick and roll possessions the following season as he averaged 10 per game. This was an increase of 2.1 pick and roll possessions from the previous season. Bledsoe created 9.8 points per game for the team because of these 10 pick and roll possessions. This was an increase of 1.9 points from the previous season. The 9.8 points accounted for 46.4 percent of his total scoring output as he averaged 21.1 points per game.
Although Eric Bledsoe was in the midst of the best offensive stretch of his career, he seemingly expressed a desire to leave Phoenix three games into the following season.
I Dont wanna be here
— Eric Bledsoe (@EBled2) October 22, 2017
Two weeks later, Bledsoe was sent to Milwaukee in exchange for center Greg Monroe, a 2018 protected first-round draft pick and a 2018 protected second-round pick. Upon arriving in Milwaukee, Bledsoe saw a significant reduction in his pick and roll possessions as he averaged 6.95 per game. This was a decrease of 3.15 possessions per game from the previous season.
The reduction in pick and roll possessions only allowed Bledsoe to create 7.3 points for the team which was a decrease of 2.5 points per game from the previous season. The 7.3 points accounted for 41.2 percent of his scoring output as he averaged 17.7 points.
The team decreased Bledsoe’s pick and roll possessions because former Bucks head coach Jason Kidd believed that Giannis Antetokounmpo had the skill set to thrive in the point forward role. According to ESPN, Kidd told reporters that he planned to use Giannis as a point forward starting in the 2016-17 season:
"“We’re going to go forward with him handling the ball,” Kidd told reporters, according to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. “You can call him point guard, point forward, point center, however you want to look at it.“With him having the ball and the pressure he puts on the defense and his ability to find guys, has been a plus for us."
Jason Kidd held true to his comments because Antetokounmpo saw a meaningful uptick in his touches the following season as he averaged 82.1 per game. This was an increase of 13.4 touches from his season average of 68.8 per game. The increase in touches led to a boost in drives per game as he averaged 10.9 per game. This was an increase of 2.1 drive per game from the previous season (8.8).
Antetokounmpo proceeded to average 5.5 points and 1.3 assists on these drives. This was an increase of 1.2 points and 0.4 assists per game from the previous season. The combination of these factors helped him average 22.9 points with 5.4 assists per game. This was an increase of six points and 1.2 assists from the prior year.
Kidd continued to give Giannis a greater on-ball presence as he averaged a career-high 84 touches per game over the first 42 games of the 2017-18 season. This was an increase of 1.9 touches from the prior year. The 84 touches allowed him to drive the ball to the basket 10.5 times per game.
Giannis proceeded to average seven points and 0.7 assists on these drives. This was an increase of 1.5 points and a decrease of 0.6 assists per game from the previous season. The combination of these factors helped him average 26.9 points with 4.8 assists per game. This was an increase of 4 points and a decrease of 0.6 assists from the prior year.
Jason Kidd was the head coach for the first two and a half months of Bledsoe’s Bucks tenure. Consequently, he had more time off the ball in the role of bystander/3-point shooter. In 35 games with Kidd as his head coach, Bledsoe attempted a career-high five 3’s per game. Unfortunately, he was only to make 31 percent of those attempts.
Bledsoe’s inability to make a 3-pointer consistently allowed his defender to leave him wide open and help defense. A prime example of was found on December 10th, 2017, when the Bucks had a home game against the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Giannis dribbled up the court as Bledsoe was standing on the left wing in the role of bystander/3-point shooter. Bledsoe’s role allowed his defender LeBron James to leave him wide open by standing near the free-throw line because he did not respect Bledsoe’s shooting abilities. This gave James the opportunity to analyze the rest of the floor and see if any of his teammates needed help with their assignments.
Even though the Milwaukee Bucks fired Jason Kidd midway through the 2017-18 season, things didn’t improve for Eric Bledsoe. This is because Milwaukee decided to hire Mike Budenholzer as their head coach after the season was over.
Budenholzer decided to continue Jason Kidd’s plan of using Giannis as a point forward. He allowed Giannis to touch the ball 82.5 times per game last season. The 82.5 touches gave him the opportunity to drive the ball to the basket 12.5 times per game.
Giannis created 8.9 points and 0.9 assists for the team during his 12.5 drives to the basket. This was an increase of 1.2 points and 0.2 assists per game from the previous season. The combination of these factors helped him average 27.7 points with 5.9 assists per game. This was an increase of 0.8 points and 0.4 assists from the prior year.
The continued use of Giannis as a point forward further reduced Bledsoe’s pick and roll possessions last season as he averaged 4.1 per game. This was a decrease of 2.85 possessions per game from the previous season.
The reduction in pick and roll possessions only allowed Eric to create 4.1 points for the team which was a decrease of 3.2 points per game from the previous season. The 4.1 points accounted for 25.8 percent of his scoring output as he averaged 15.9 points.
Consequently, Bledsoe was forced to spend more time off the ball as a bystander/3-point shooter. Unfortunately, Bledsoe is not a threat to hurt opposing teams in this role as he has a career shooting percentage of 33.6 percent from behind the arc.
Bledsoe’s shooting percentage is two percent lower than the league average (35.61 percent) over the past nine seasons. Consequently, defenders leave him open when he is off the ball as 91.5 percent of his 3’s have been uncontested over the past six seasons.
Bledsoe’s inability to shoot played a role in Giannis being tied for second in heavily contested field goal attempts as he averaged 3.4 per game. The combination of all these factors led the team to outscore opponents by 11.6 points per 100 possessions when Bledsoe and Giannis were on the court together last season.
As a consequence, if the Bucks continue to use Giannis as a point forward, they would be better off starting another player at point guard. For example, George Hill would be a slight better option to start at point guard as he has a career 3-point shooting percentage of 37.8 percent. This is 4.2 percent better than Eric Bledsoe’s shooting percent of 33.6 percent.
Therefore, defenders stay slightly closer to Hill when he is off the ball as 91 percent of his 3’s have been uncontested over the past six seasons. This is 0.5 percent better than Bledsoe which slightly decreases the likelihood of Hill’s defender coming over to help on Giannis; as he would be worried about surrendering an open 3.
George Hill‘s shooting helped the team to outscore opponents by 20.8 points per 100 possessions when he and Giannis were on the court together last season. This was 9.2 points per 100 possessions better than the duo of Eric and Giannis.
If the Bucks feel that George Hill isn’t enough of an upgrade over Eric Bledsoe, they should keep tabs on the availability of Robert Covington. Robert has a career 3-point shooting percentage of 36 percent which is 2.4 percent better than Bledsoe.
As a consequence, defenders have to stay near him when 74.5 percent of his 3’s have been uncontested over the past five seasons. This is 16 percent better than Bledsoe. Not only is Robert Covington a great complimentary piece for Giannis, he is on an affordable contract making $11.3 million this upcoming season.
Therefore, Milwaukee can offer Donte DiVincenzo, the 2020 first-round pick from the Indiana Pacers and salary filler to the Minnesota Timberwolves for Covington. The hypothetical acquisition of Robert Covington would give Mike Budenholzer the option to move Bledsoe to the bench.
The potential move would give Eric Bledsoe the opportunity to run more pick and roll as Giannis will be on the bench resting. In conclusion, separating Bledsoe and Giannis will increase the team’s effectiveness which improves their odds of reaching the finals and winning the championship.