Worst-case scenario
Of course, when it comes to worst-case scenarios there is always the possibility of catastrophic injury knocking any team out of playoff contention. I’m always the first to say that anything is possible when it comes to the NBA.
However, I feel that preseason scenarios should be based on the assumption that the team will be at least relatively healthy and that’s how I’m going to handle both best and worst-case scenarios for the Raptors’ 2019-20 season.
The worst-case scenario that I’ve heard floated around is that without Kawhi, the Raptors are not a playoff team. And if I try really hard to get into the headspace of NBA fans at large, I guess I get it, albeit begrudgingly.
A lot of people had their first real exposure to the Raptors as a team during the playoffs last season, Canadians and Americans alike. And Kawhi was an absolute force. It’s easy for the rest of the team to be overshadowed with that kind of superstar performance at the forefront.
With this in mind, let me say in no uncertain terms, the idea that a relatively healthy Raptors team won’t make the playoffs this season is utter nonsense.
Come along on a journey with me for a minute.
Last season, Pascal Siakam averaged 16.9 points as the number two option on the floor. If you look at just the 22 games that Leonard was out on load management, his average was even higher.
Let’s say this season as the number one scoring option he’s able to bump up to around 20 points per game, even 22 points I don’t think will be a stretch. In the 2013-14 season, DeMar DeRozan averaged 22.7 points and the Raptors won 48 games.
Of all the guys on that roster, only DeMar DeRozan, Kyle Lowry, Jonas Valanciunas, Terrence Ross, and Rudy Gay are still making notable contributions to their NBA teams. This Raptors team has fundamentally sound veteran Marc Gasol coming off the best summer of his career. Monster rim protection and decent 3-point shooting in Serge Ibaka. Steady Freddy and Stormin’ Norman, both hungry for minutes. OG Anunoby and Patrick McCaw, both super talented ballplayers, both eager to get back into the swing of things after difficult seasons personally and healthwise.
So, taking all of this into consideration, I challenge you to name eight teams that are going to finish ahead of the Raptors in the Eastern Conference this year.
Go ahead, I’ll wait.
The reality is, that the teams that didn’t make the playoffs last season didn’t take huge strides forward in the offseason. In order for the Raptors to miss the playoffs, either the Hornets, Heat, Wizards, Hawks, Bulls, Cavaliers or Knicks would have to be playoff teams this season.
And that’s assuming that none of the other top seven teams from last season don’t fall out of contention. The Pistons squeaked into the playoffs with a .500 record last season. Sure, the Nets, who made it with a .512 record indisputably got better this offseason, but the Magic also made the playoffs with a .512 record.
So, let’s talk more reasonably.
A realistic worst-case scenario to me is that the Raptors drop below 45 wins in the regular season, finish 7th or 8th in the Eastern Conference, and are bounced from the playoffs in the first round.