Detroit Pistons: Luke Kennard needs to make a big jump in year 3

Luke Kennard has shown glimpses during his first two years in the NBA. For the Detroit Pistons to reach their potential, he has to take a leap in year three

When Luke Kennard decided to enter the NBA Draft after his sophomore season at Duke University, it came as no surprise when one of his main player comps was J.J. Redick.

After all, Kennard and Redick do share similarities, mainly being they’re both white shooting guards from Duke, with obvious athletic shortcomings, defensive deficiencies, and sweet-shooting strokes from the perimeter (they’re also two of the rare NBA players with negative wingspans). But for the most part, that’s where the similarities ended.

Redick is a specialist, albeit one of the very best in the NBA. After a slow start to his career, Redick has played an integral part of championship-caliber teams for the better part of the last decade. His shooting ability off screens, curls, spot-ups, and transition was a huge contributor to the success of the ‘Lob City’ LA Clippers and ‘Post-Process’ Philadelphia 76ers.

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He learned to be a solid team defender (his effectiveness has dwindled as he ages) and has been a better playmaker when given the opportunity than he’s given credit for, able to throw lobs and find cutters out of different designed sets. But his calling card always has been, and always will be his 3-point shooting.

While Kennard also relies heavily on his 3-point shooting, it’s his other, less advertised skills, that could be the difference in the Detroit Pistons reaching their full potential.

Kennard is known as a sniper, and for good reason. He’s a 40 percent shooter from distance over his first two years in the league, with 51 percent of his shot attempts coming from behind the arc last season. But one skill we’ve only seen glimpses of during his short career is Kennard’s impressive playmaking ability.

For those that have followed Kennard closely through the years, his ability to see the floor, make the right read and deliver on-point passes with either hand should come as no surprise. After all, despite being a left-handed shooter, he was an all-state quarterback in high school who happens to throw a football with his right hand.

This enhances his ability to make passes off the catch or on the move with both hands. And though he doesn’t have the tightest handle or blow-by speed many of his contemporaries do, he’s very good at navigating the pick-and-roll while using his body and high IQ to find openings and angles to create space.

According to Cleaning The Glass, Kennard has assisted on just over 12 percent of his teammate’s field goals the last two years, and while that number might not jump off the page, it would rank him in right about the 70th percentile amongst all NBA wings. This also doesn’t account for the fact that he’s shared the bulk of his time on the court with Blake Griffin, Reggie Jackson, and Andre Drummond, hence his middling 17.6 percent career usage rate.

Combine all that with his career average of three assists per 36 minutes (he averaged 23 minutes per game last year), It’s far from a stretch to think with an uptick in minutes and slightly higher usage, Kennard could work as an excellent secondary playmaker.

As long as his shooting stroke stays intact, Kennard will always be a relatively efficient player due to the number of shots he takes from the perimeter, hence his 56 percent true shooting percentage, which is slightly above league average. Where I think he can take a leap, from serviceable scorer off the bench to legit scoring option on a playoff team, is by slightly altering his shot selection.

Kennard only took 13 percent of his shots at the rim last year, while 37 percent of his shots came from the mid-range (three feet to the 3-point line), per Cleaning the Glass. This contributed to his abysmally low 11.7 percent free throw rate, which resulted in only 66 free throw attempts in 63 games played, which is less than ideal for an 85 percent career free-throw shooter. For perspective, Stephen Curry and James Harden, two of the league’s best scorers, only took about 20 percent of their shots from the mid-range, respectively.

Kennard isn’t an amazing athlete (he does have 5 dunks in his short career; take that J.J.) but he’s better than people give him credit for. Similar to Curry, his athleticism shows up more when talking skills involving hand-eye coordination than pure leaping ability. This, along with his impressive ambidextrous ability, allows him to finish around the basket in a variety of ways.

Combine that with an impressive array of head and ball fakes and up and under moves, and it’s not surprising he shot 67 percent at the rim last year. He just has to be willing to be more aggressive attacking the rim, which should, in turn, help him get to the foul line more as well.

I’d love to see the Pistons run more handoffs and curls between Griffin and Kennard, similar to how Redick used to operate with Griffin in Los Angeles. This would allow Kennard multiple options depending on how the defense plays him. Go under the screen and he can shoot the 3. Follow him around the screen and he can take it and attack the rim for either a shot, dump off, or kick out. Or, depending on what the screen man does, he can hit the screener (hopefully griffin) on the pop or roll for an easy shot.

Which leads us to the next point. For the Pistons to reach their apex, they have to find a way for Kennard and Griffin to be successful together. In 721 minutes on the court last year, the duo had a -2.0 Net Rating, per NBA.com. This was good for 365th out 454 two-man lineups with at least 700 minutes played together. Offensively they weren’t terrible, with a 109 offensive rating that would have ranked right around 15th in the league. Defensively, though, is where they really struggled, where their 111 defensive rating would have rated amongst the bottom third of the league.

A lot of their struggles together have to do with the pieces around them. Drummond looks the part of a classic rim protector, but he can be lazy on the defense and often gets caught out of rotation. Reggie Jackson might as well let his man waltz to the rim when he’s on the floor, while the rest of the supporting cast was/is extremely one-dimensional.

This is where I believe Pistons head coach, Dwane Casey, has to get creative. Griffin is their best player and I truly believe with opportunity Kennard can be the second-best offensive player. If that is indeed the case, they cannot be outscored on a regular basis. If Bruce Brown can find a consistent shot, that will help, as he’s already developed a reputation as a gritty wing defender. The same goes for Jackson, who has never been a natural playmaker and is probably better served to cede even more playmaking duties to Griffin, Kennard, and now Derrick Rose as well.

The one area Kennard will probably never be more than average is on the defensive end. But honestly, if he can fulfill his offensive potential he just has to be exactly that, average. His lack of wingspan and lateral quickness will always hinder him. But effort cures a lot of deficiencies and that’s where he can struggle. He has to be willing to fight through screens, challenge bigger players, and do the little things.

The Clippers were a stout defense while Redick was there because he tried and was smart. He forced opponents into the help, made the right rotations, and never gave up on a play. That’s all Kennard has to do to be successful. He’s never going to lockdown James Harden and that’s okay, he doesn’t have to. He just has to try.

This is a big year for Kennard as he enters year three in the league. We saw in the playoffs with a hobbled Griffin, what he can do with more offensive responsibility (yes, they were swept by the Bucks but they never stood a chance). But he has to show it for a full season and he has to take it. He’ll probably be the go-to guy on the second unit with Rose (a pairing I don’t love), but he’ll most likely close games because of his shooting and playmaking.

Next. Miami Heat: Tyler Herro is playing his way into a starting role. dark

The Pistons aren’t championship contenders. They’re a flawed roster that lacks a ton of solid NBA rotational players. But they’ve got a few, enough to make a playoff series interesting. A leap from ‘Cool Hand Luke’ might just be enough to throw a little chaos in the mix.

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