Toronto Raptors: How good will they be in the post-Kawhi era?

The Toronto Raptors are the defending NBA Champions, but how good will they be in the post-Kawhi era?

"“Yeah, I think there are 20 shots or so up for grabs.”"

There are many ways to characterize the departure of Kawhi Leonard, but coach Nick Nurse and the Toronto Raptors are ready to take on this monumental obstacle headfirst.

The natural starting point is to examine how the Raptors fared without Leonard in the 22 games he load-managed through. It has been widely publicized that they excelled in those contests, going 17-5 with some high-profile wins. They had an absurd +12.9 Net Rating, scoring 1.16 points per possession and allowing 1.03, both of which are improvements from their season-long numbers.

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But digging deeper into these games shows that these ridiculous statistics may be deceiving. Some of these wins came against teams that were missing key players – the Jazz without Donovan Mitchell, the Clippers without Lou Williams, the Kings without De’Aaron Fox, and the Wizards without John Wall (although you can argue about this one with the way he performed last year). They also lost to a Giannis-less Bucks team and to a Pacers team that lost Victor Oladipo to a season-ending injury in the middle of the game.

Remove three games at the end of the year against two of the dregs of the Eastern Conference (the Knicks twice and the Bulls) and the numbers appear less rosy. But it’s a long season, and every good team banks easy win throughout its schedule. They had their fair share of impressive victories, like waxing healthy Lakers and Warriors teams on the road. This 22-game resume may not be completely rock-solid, but it still holds up reasonably well to further scrutiny. This is not a 2008 New England Patriots situation.

The most important player for the Toronto Raptors immediately became Pascal Siakam once The Klaw decided to return home. The rise of Siakam has truly been one of the most incredible stories in the league. From not playing basketball seriously until the age of 16, to becoming a surprise first-round pick who was not on most people’s radars, to getting the “Keith Bogans” treatment his rookie season, to becoming a linchpin of the bench mob during his sophomore season, and to now becoming a borderline all-star and essential core piece for a championship team this past season, Pascal Siakam has always exceeded expectations.

And these low expectations have almost worked to his advantage. Instead of being tasked with being the lead scoring option or a primary initiator, he has been able to pick his spots. Attacking closeouts by finding the creases and seams in the defense and seeking out mismatches has been extremely conducive to his gangly, long-limbed, hopscotch-ity game.

His point forward skills allow him to thrive in transition. Contrast this to the outsized expectations that faced Jayson Tatum. Do not mind that he can disappear for prolonged stretches. Kawhi Leonard will save the day.

So will Pascal Siakam sink or swim as a higher usage player? I can see both sides of the coin. On one hand, his jump shot should continue to develop. He has already gone from being a non-shooter to becoming a prolific marksman from the corners, Sixers and Bucks series’ aside. He shot 3-6 from deep in a memorable Game 6 performance to win the NBA title. Siakam is already an outstanding finisher at the rim, so becoming a respectable 3-point shooter from above the break would inflict heavy pressure on opposing defenses.

The issue is that his shot form makes it difficult to shoot pull-up jumpers off the dribble. He shoots a set-shot without a great deal of elevation and he turns his body to the right side a bit, which makes me skeptical that he can make a living on the types of difficult shots that high usage players are obliged to take.

Siakam is a great playmaker for his size, but his loose handle is vulnerable to ball pressure. His turnover rate spiked against good teams. Siakam himself has said that he is still learning about basketball every day and every game. Will this deepened understanding of the game translate to an even greater offensive impact? Or will being an a-list priority on other teams’ scouting reports stifle his development? He also turns 26 in April, which is not exactly on the right side of the aging curve athletically.

Ultimately, I see Pascal Siakam partly fulfilling this increased role. While he will not ever adequately fill Kawhi Leonard’s shoes (who can?), a first career all-star appearance is likely in the cards for the man they call “P-Skills.”

The Toronto Raptors did not just lose Kawhi Leonard this offseason, they also lost Danny Green, who was a key two-way cog for their success. Norman Powell and OG Anunoby will likely replace these two in the starting lineup. Powell may be a bit overtaxed as a starting shooting guard, so we will see Finals hero Fred VanVleet playing next to Kyle Lowry in a lot of two-point guard alignments. We could also see a giant Siakam/Ibaka/Gasol frontcourt for stretches as we saw in the second round against the Sixers.

Nick Nurse is a tinkerer by nature. Anunoby is another key swing piece in the future of this organization. After a promising rookie season where he was seemingly the only one not overwhelmed by franchise owner LeBron James in the playoffs, he had pretty much a lost season in his second year due to freak injuries and personal tragedy. His star may have fallen quite a bit since then, but keep in mind that Anunoby was once untouchable in Kawhi trade talks with the Spurs.

I see Kyle Lowry, VanVleet, and Siakam as locks for being on the floor to close games, with Anunoby/Powell and Ibaka/Gasol varying based on matchups and performance. This is a formidable rotation, but it is lacking depth. They will need a few of the fliers that Masai Ujiri signed to pan out. Patrick McCaw who has had a short but embattled career got paid pretty generously. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Stanley Johnson (teammates at the University of Arizona) will fight for minutes as reclamation projects. The Raptors are high on Terrence Davis and Chris Boucher. Matt Thomas and Malcolm Miller are NBA unknowns. Will any of these guys be the next VanVleet or Siakam in the pipeline?

But this is getting into the weeds. The core group of this team all played key roles in bringing a championship to Canada. Lowry and Siakam can be expected to play at an all-star level of impact. While Kyle Lowry may be the butt of Twitter memes (no pun intended), all he does is making winning basketball plays. He and Marc Gasol were made for each other. And even though Lowry is getting up there in age (34 in March), I trust that he will continue to stave off Father Time.

Shooting and smarts age like fine wine and he will be rejuvenated after playing in a strangely low usage role next to Kawhi Leonard last season. How many guys could go 5-5 in the first quarter of a road closeout game to win the title as Lowry did?

I expect the Raptors to be the three-seed in the Eastern Conference this season, barring an unexpected trade. Boston has too many question marks on the defensive end. Miami and Orlando do not pack quite enough offensive punch. The Nets have zero championship equity without Kevin Durant. Indiana needs a healthy Victor Oladipo. There is something to be said for having an entire roster with no weak links defensively. And these guys always play hard during the regular season.

Nick Nurse has won at every stop in his coaching career. While he will not be afforded the luxury to experiment as much as he did in 2019, I trust him to find the right lineups and styles of play that click. You can walk into 45 wins in the East by just being an elite defense alone. They have a great deal of collective intelligence with the likes of Lowry, Van Vleet, Siakam, and Gasol. Ibaka and Powell should continue to be outstanding play-finishers.

Next. Is Zion Williamson living up to the hype already in the preseason?. dark

The Toronto Raptors may not have Finals-upside without the two-way supernova Leonard, but they should be a formidable playoff team and a tough second-round out. In the words of a wise man, “Don’t underestimate the heart of a champion.”

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