Atlanta Hawks: Best and worst-case scenario for 2019-20

Exploring the best and worst-case scenarios for the Atlanta Hawks heading into the 2019-20 NBA season

As the Atlanta Hawks prepare for the start of the 2019-20 NBA season, there is an air of excitement and anticipation as training camp is well underway.

The Hawks have retooled their roster and it has a balanced mix of young pieces who will be mentored by solidly established league veterans.

At the team’s recent media day, Coach Lloyd Pierce speaking to reporters expressed how he hopes the veteran presence will influence the younger players on his team.

More from Sir Charles In Charge

"[via Haws.com]“We’re going to lean on Evan Turner and Vince Carter just to help out in the locker room, help on the court and help in workouts. It’s important for the younger young guys to lean on some of the older young guys,” Their limited experience is what I can rely on. They know what we want to run offensively. They have to use their voice to educate some of the other guys – not even just the young guys – but some of the other guys.”"

Coming off a 29-53 season, the Hawks are still in rebuild mode, but have aspirations of inching close to a playoff spot in the next year or so. But what would be the best case and worse-case scenarios for Atlanta this season?

Let’s examine both those possibilities, and then draw a takeaway by making a prediction.

Best-case scenario

Several of the younger players will need to make major contributions in order for the best-case scenario possibilities to actually come to fruition.

First, the Trae Young of the second half of the season must be that same Trae Young for a full season. After a solid start to his first month of the NBA season where he averaged 19.1 points per game in October, he tailed off to 14 points per game in November.

After slowly improving his scoring in December and January, he raised his game by leaps and bounds for the second half of the season, averaging about 23 points for the remainder of the season.

If Atlanta is to take major strides this season, Young will need to charge out of the gate early and show the same sort of scoring prowess he displayed during the second half of 2018-19. In addition, he also averaged eight assists and shot 43 percent from the field and 33 percent from beyond the arc.

Second, Young will also need a big man who is willing to run the floor and benefit from Young’s passing and be able to finish at the rim with authority. The likely beneficiary will be John Collins. After missing some time at the beginning of last season due to shoulder and knee issues, Collins fell just short of averaging 20 points and 10 boards per game.

Collins, who shot 56 percent from the floor last season, will look to improve his range and grow as a defender.

The third best-case scenario is Cam Reddish wins NBA rookie of the year. Another best case scenario is that the NBA awards are never broadcast on television ever again, but that’s another topic for another column.

If Reddish, who was selected 10th overall by the Atlanta Hawks in the first round of the 2019 NBA Draft, can earn big minutes from Pierce he could be a serious candidate for Rookie of the Year.

Reddish appeared in 36 total games for Duke and averaged 13.5 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 1.9 assists while shooting 33 percent from 3-point range. Young believes Reddish could win the hardware at the end of the season.

If at least these three things come to fruition, the Hawks will win 42 games and take the eighth spot in the Eastern Conference standings.

Worst-case scenario

First, the Hawks have many young core players who they are hopeful will bring a very bright future in Atlanta. One of which is Kevin Huerter. If he can build on his rookie season, Atlanta will continue its rise in the East. If not, it could lead to the Hawks mired in irrelevance once again.

He started 59 of the 75 games he appeared in last season. He was voted to the All-Rookie Second Team coming off a season averaging 9.7 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 2.9 assists in about 27 minutes per game.

Huerter, who is listed at 6-foot-7 and measures a slender 190 pounds, will need to continue to grow physically and absorb more contact if he is to find more success in his second NBA season.

A second worst-case scenario, DeAndre Hunter’s college game doesn’t translate to the NBA and he becomes just another 3-and-D guy.

In his sophomore season, Hunter averaged 15.2 points per game and 5.1 rebounds per game. He helped lead Virginia to another No. 1 seed in the 2019 NCAA Tournament.

These numbers included a year that held many highlights such as being named ACC Defensive Player of the Year, NABC Second Team All-American and winning an NCAA championship.

In a third worst-case scenario, Vince Carter appears in all 82 games If that’s the case it means that Carter is taking minutes away from one of the other Hawks young stars.

So if the Vince Carter farewell tour becomes the highlight of the season, it means Atlanta is still another year or so from contending for the postseason.

He is slated to play through the 2019-20 season after announcing it would be his last, bringing his seasons played to 22 seasons. If he plays during 2020, he will also become the first NBA player to play in four decades.

He needs to play in only 42 games to pass Dirk Nowitzki for third in the all-time games played list. If he plays in 80, he’ll pass Kareem Abdul-Jabbar for second all-time behind only Robert Parish.

If these three scenarios happen, look for Atlanta to secure 22-24 wins while languishing in 14th place in the Eastern Conference standings.

Prediction

The Atlanta Hawks will be one of the fun storylines in the league this season. While they will improve from their 29 win total from last season, they should wind up with 35 wins and I’m not sure that will be enough to crack the playoffs in the Eastern Conference.