Exploring the best and worst-case scenario for the Denver Nuggets heading into the 2019-20 NBA season
The Denver Nuggets are coming off one of their best seasons in franchise history after winning 54 games in a loaded Western Conference. The team’s success is due in large part to Nikola Jokic, who earned himself All-NBA First Team honors and finished fourth in MVP voting. Unfortunately for the Nuggets, they failed to advance to the Western Conference Finals after narrowly losing to the Portland Trail Blazers in seven games.
After a wild offseason marked by numerous win-now moves across the league, Denver remained relatively quiet. Rather than shipping out assets for a star, Denver banked on the continuity of their young roster. In July, they re-signed up-and-coming point guard Jamal Murray to a five-year, $170M max extension.
Another key move was trading a top-10 protected first-round pick to Oklahoma City for Jerami Grant. Grant, 25, fits with Denver’s timeline and provides valuable depth and defensive versatility at either power forward or center. He also serves as the ideal successor for Paul Millsap, who is 35 and playing on an expiring contract.
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Lastly, Denver has two immensely talented but injury-prone players in Bol Bol and Michael Porter Jr. Both players were coveted recruits that slid in the draft due to injuries. Porter was the top recruit coming out of high school but slipped to 14th overall in 2018. Bol was viewed as a lottery-pick while in college but fell to 44th in June’s draft due to injury concerns. Porter didn’t play last season while recovering from a back injury, but he’s expected to make the team’s regular-season roster.
Best-case scenario: Around 57 wins and a deep playoff run
- Jokic and Murray are still young
- Roster continuity
- Adding Michael Porter Jr. to a deep roster
Last season, Denver went 54-28 and finished second in the Western Conference. When you consider the age of the team and what they’ve already accomplished, it isn’t crazy to believe this team could win around 57 games and make the Western Conference Finals. Yes, the Western Conference is even better. But Denver’s team is very young, and many players should continue to improve. In fact, Jokic and Murray are 24 and 25, respectively; so, they (especially Murray) could very well move to a higher level.
Many could make the mistake of discounting Denver’s roster continuity. If history tells us anything, overhauled rosters will almost certainly experience growing pains. Could Paul George and Kawhi Leonard have an imperfect transition to playing together? Yeah. Could the Lakers get off to a slow start as they figure out how to utilize their limited depth? Definitely. Will Houston lose a few games because Harden and Westbrook suddenly forget how to pass during crunch time? 100 percent will happen.
It’s highly unlikely that each of the teams above meets or exceeds expectations, so Denver could see success early on.
A significant question mark on the roster has to be Michael Porter Jr. If he can stay healthy, he could serve as the go-to scorer on an already talented second-unit while he develops. Adding Porter to a bench-unit that includes Malik Beasley, Jerami Grant, and the shockingly underrated Monte Morris could create one of the most feared bench units in the league.
Having a strong bench, and avoid burdening stars with too many minutes, is imperative to prolonged success. If the Nuggets can stay healthy and integrate new arrivals, the young core should be able to build off of last season’s success.
Worst-case scenario: Barring an injured star, around 44 wins and a first-round exit.
- Paul Millsap, 34, shows a visible decline
- Will Barton isn’t fully recovered from an injury-plagued 2019
- Jamal Murray’s development stagnates
- Michael Porter is slow to adjust to the NBA
In 2019, Denver had the talent and necessary personnel to win on any night. However, they might need to make significant adjustments. Two of Denver’s defensive players, Paul Millsap and Will Barton, could (understandably) fail to meet expectations. Barton, still recovering from various injuries from 2019, and Millsap is, well, 34. Underwhelming production from either could mean trouble for a defense that was top-10 in 2019.
Even though Jamal Murray signed a lucrative extension this offseason, he has yet to finish a season with a positive net rating. While he is still a very promising player, it’s worth questioning when he will truly be a productive player. His passing and shooting make him the perfect complementary player to Jokic, but he needs to address his shot selection and defense to elevate the team. Failing to address issues like these could lose Denver jeopardize games and limit the team’s ceiling.
Lastly, Michael Porter Jr. recently played competitive basketball for the first time in well over a year; so, he could have a particularly rough season. This has nothing to do with his long-term outlook, but it might be 2020 by the time he consistently contributes. Porter has had a particularly strong preseason, but we’ll see if he has the conditioning to fend off the Rookie Wall.
Denver is still in good shape, even if the worst-case scenario comes to fruition. They have a great young core, no egregious contracts, or publicized locker room issues.
The team is in the sweet spot of competing at a high level while also not being saddled by impossible expectations and media scrutiny. If the season goes up in flames, try to remember that it could be a lot worse.