New Orleans Pelicans: Why Jahlil Okafor’s career has been disappointing

Jahlil Okafor’s career has gotten off to a disappointing start because organizations don’t put him in the proper position to succeed; could that change with the New Orleans Pelicans?

American author Scott Adams once said, “your best work involves timing. If someone wrote the best hip hop song of all time in the Middle Ages, he had bad timing”. One can argue that bad timing has played a vital role in dictating the trajectory of Jahlil Okafor‘s NBA career.

Prior to entering the league, Okafor was known as a player who thrived in the low post. According to Draft Express, 54 percent of Okafor’s half-court touches were in the low post during his lone season at Duke:

"The implications of post play for both Okafor and Towns as pros is extremely interesting. 54% of Okafor’s possessions were post ups last season, and aside from some less than stellar performances in the NCAA Tournament, he turned in one of the most efficient, prolific post up scoring seasons of any elite NBA prospect in recent memory, outscoring a number of teams from the low block on the year by himself, shooting .922 points per possession over 8.4 possessions per game."

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Okafor’s low post skills were the catalyst behind him being projected as a top 2 pick before the 2015 draft. SBNation had the Los Angeles Lakers picking Okafor with the second overall pick, five days before the draft. This is because they felt that Okafor had the potential to be the best low post scorer in years.

Unfortunately, three days later, Bleacher Report stated that the team was leaning towards picking D’Angelo Russell over Okafor because they thought he would be a better leader and winner. Not only but team officials believed that Russell’s shooting form resembled Stephen Curry.

Ultimately the team would choose D’Angelo Russell, leaving Jahlil Okafor on the board for the Philadelphia 76ers. According to the New York Post, general manager Sam Hinkie wanted to draft Kristaps Porzings but was overruled as they preferred one of the top three prospects (Karl-Anthony Towns, Jahlil Okafor or D’Angelo Russell).

Ownership felt that Kristaps was going to take several years to develop, which wouldn’t have gone over well with a fanbase that had experienced so much losing over the past couple of years. Ownership’s decision set off an unfortunate chain of events in the career of Jahlil Okafor as Philadelphia already had a prolific low post on the roster in Joel Embiid, who they drafted a year prior.

According to Draft Express, Joel ranked second among all players in the NCAA when it came to low possessions as 49.3 percent of his possessions took place in the low post:

"Embiid did most of his damage this season scoring in the post, ranking 2nd among all players on this list with 49.3% of his possessions coming on the block. He ranks an impressive 2nd in this group, scoring .95 points per-post up possession, making 54.9% of his attempts with his back to the basket."

The main difference between the two players is that Joel was a better defensive player before entering the league. In high school, Embiid was seen as a talented shot-blocker with all the tools to become an exceptional defender on and off the ball. On the other hand, Okafor was seen as a slow-footed player who had awful defensive awareness during his time at Duke.

The combination of these factors meant that Okafor would always play second fiddle to Embiid unless the latter was out due to injury. For instance, Joel was forced to miss the entire 2015-16 as he underwent bone graft surgery to address a stress fracture in the navicular bone of his right foot, which wasn’t healing after the first operation.

Embiid’s injury allowed Okafor to shine as he touched the basketball 50 times in 30 minutes per game during his rookie season with Philadelphia. The 50 touches allowed Okafor to post up 10 times per game. The 10 post up allowed him to create 5.3 points per game for the team. The 5.3 points accounted for 30 percent of his total scoring output as he averaged 17.5 points.

Unfortunately, Okafor wasn’t able to build on the success of his rookie season as Joel Embiid made his long-awaited NBA debut at the beginning of the 2016-17 season. Embiid’s debut led to a significant reduction in the playing time of Jahlil Okafor as he averaged 22.7 minutes per game. This was a decrease of 7.3 minutes per game from his rookie season. Diminished playing time led a decline in his touches per game as he went from 50 to 41.4.

Fewer touches led to a dip in his post-up attempts during the 2016-17 season as he averaged 6.7 per game. This was a decrease of 3.3 post-up attempts per game from his rookie season. The reduction in post-up attempts led a decline in his production as he only created 3.3 points per game on these post-up attempts.

The 3.3 points accounted for 27.96 percent of his total scoring output as he averaged 11.8 per game. Okafor’s situation got substantial worse the following year as head coach Brett Brown placed him in the rotation with Amir Johnson. Brown’s decision led Okafor to demand that he be traded to another team or bought out from his contract.

Philadelphia understood his desire to leave the organization as former general manager Bryan Colangelo told ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski on November 26th, 2017, that the team was working with Jahlil to find a suitable trade for both sides. A week and a half later, the 76ers traded Jahlil Okafor, Nik Stauskas, and a future second-round pick to the Brooklyn Nets in exchange for Trevor Booker.

Unfortunately, the trade didn’t work out for Okafor because Brooklyn was near the bottom of the league in post-up possessions. Before the arrival of Okafor, the team was 25th in the league in post-up possessions averaging 7.7 per game.

After Okafor joined the team, they decreased the number of post-up possessions as Brooklyn averaged 6.6 per game. The 6.6 attempts caused the organization to drop one spot in the rankings as they went from 25th to 26th. The lack of post-ups resulted in another significant reduction in the offensive statistics of Jahli as he only played 12.6 minutes per game.

This was a decrease of 10.1 minutes per game from his second season. Diminished playing time led a decline in his touches per game as he went from 41.4 to 20.5. Fewer touches led to a dip in his post-up attempts during the 2017-18 season as he averaged 3 per game.

This was a decrease of 3.7 post-up attempts per game from his second season. The reduction in post-up attempts led a decline in his production as he only created 1.6 points per game on these post-up attempts. The 1.6 points accounted for 25 percent of his total scoring output as he averaged 6.4 per game

The lack of production in the previous three seasons lessen the interest in him during the offseason as he signed a partially guaranteed two-year contract with the New Orleans Pelicans. New Orleans was a better situation for him as they were 6th in the league in post-up possessions last season, averaging 14 per game.

The increased post up possessions resulted in a slight boost to his offensive statistics of Okafor as he played 15.8 minutes per game. This was an increase of 3.2 minutes per game from his third season. The increased playing time led a surge in his touches per game as he went from 20.5 to 27.6. More touches led to a hike in his post-up attempts during the 2018-19 season as he averaged 3.3 per game.

This was an increase of 0.3 post-up attempts per game from his third season. The uptick in post-up attempts led a rise in his production as he created 1.8 points per game on these post-up attempts. The 1.8 points accounted for 22 percent of his total scoring output as he averaged 8.2 per game.

If given consistent post-up opportunities, Jahlil Okafor can become a solid rotation player like Enes Kanter. Kanter averaged 6.73 post-ups per game from 2016-17 to 2018-19. The 6.73 post up allowed him to create 3.6 points per game for the team. The 3.6 points accounted for 25.7 percent of his total scoring output as he averaged 14 points.