Houston Rockets: The Russell Westbrook experiment is off to a bad start

The Russell Westbrook experiment is off to a bad start for the Houston Rockets because he is spending more time off the ball, putting a greater emphasis on his biggest weakness: shooting

There has been a recurring conversation about how Russell Westbrook is changing his game to fit in with the Houston Rockets. Kevin O’Connor of The Ringer wrote an article praising Westbrook for having a better shot selection and being a more prolific scorer around the rim.

However, one can argue that the Russell Westbrook experiment is off to a bad start as Houston has put an added emphasis on his biggest weakness, shooting. This is because head coach Mike D’Antoni made isolations a staple of his offensive system as they were in the top 5 over the past three seasons averaging 16.2 possessions per game.

Houston’s isolation sets worked best when the ball handler was surrounded by three above-average shooters and a big man. A prime example of this was midway through the third quarter of a road game against the New Orleans Pelicans when James Harden dribbled the basketball up the right-wing until he got to the 3-point line.

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Upon arriving at the 3-point line, he saw that Kenrich Williams was tightly guarding him to get him off the line. Consequently, Harden decided to blow by him and attack the basket because he knew Williams didn’t have the speed to stay in front of him. Harden had a clear path to the bucket until he approached the restricted area because Julius Randle rotated over to prevent him from getting an easy layup.

When Randle made contact with him, Harden immediately attempted a shot in hopes of getting a 3-point play. James failed to get the 3-point play as the referee didn’t call a foul, but he did get two points because the shot went in.

The defense couldn’t afford to send help earlier because James was sharing the court with Chris Paul, Eric Gordon, and P.J.Tucker. All of these players have a career 3-point percentage of above 36 percent. Therefore, if one of their defenders rotated over to help Kenrich, James could pass it to the open man for a 3.

On the other hand, if Randle helped earlier, Harden could throw a lob to Clint Capela for a dunk.

This lineup combination outscored opponents by 7.2 points per 100 possessions in over 180 playoff minutes together last season. Unfortunately, the acquisition of Russell Westbrook will make it hard for the Houston Rockets to achieve the same level of success as last year.

This is because Russ has taken over Chris Paul’s role of the spot-up shooter during the team’s isolation sets. Russell is touching the ball 82.2 times a game which is the fewest number of touches since the 2013-14 season. This makes it easier for teams to defend Houston as Russell has struggled in the spot-up shooter role because he has shot 30 percent on catch and shoot 3’s over the past six-plus seasons.

As a consequence, 90.9 percent of his 3-point field goal this season haven’t been contested by defenders. Russ has only converted 66.6 percent of his uncontested 3’s. This pales in comparison to Chris Paul as he made 85.2 percent of his uncontested 3’s last season.

Westbrook’s inability to capture the attention of defenders as a spot-up shooter role has increased the amount of contested shots for James Harden. A prime example of this was early in the first quarter of a home game against the Oklahoma City Thunder when Russ dribbled to the 3-point line. Once this happened, Westbrook passed the ball to James, who was standing on the right-wing.

Westbrook’s pass meant he was in the role of the spot-up shooter for at least the next few seconds. Being a spot-up shooter allowed his defender, Terrance Ferguson, to offer help defense on James Harden. Consequently, James was surrounded by Steven Adams and Ferguson after he went over the PJ Tucker screen. This forced him to pass the back to Westbrook, who was wide open on the left-wing.

Russ immediately passed the ball to Tucker, who moved to the top of the key after he set the screen for Harden. Tucker ended the possessions by missing a 3-pointer.

The lack of shooting from Russell Westbrook affected the quality of shots for James Harden. James is averaging one wide-open shot attempt through the first five games of this season. This is a decrease of 0.8 wide-open shot attempts from the first five games of last season.

James is currently making 60 percent of his wide-open shot attempts, which is a 17.8 percent decrease from the first five games of last season. Some of his wide-open shots have become heavily contested field goal attempts as James is currently taking 2.4 heavily contested shot attempts per game.

This is an increase of 0.8 heavily contested field goal attempts from the first five games of last season. James is currently making 41.7 percent of his heavily contested shot attempts, which is a 29.2 percent increase from the first five games of last season.

The combination of these factors has contributed to James shooting 36.5 percent from the field. This is a 9.3 percent decrease as he shot 45.8 percent in the first five games of last season. Not only that but Russell’s inability to shoot has affected the team as Houston has a lower field goal percentage than their opponents.

Houston is currently shooting 43.9 percent from the field. This is a 5.5 percent decrease as they shot 49.4 percent in the first five games of last season.

Therefore, it would behoove James Harden to cede playmaking duties to Russell Westbrook when they share the court as he is better suited to thrive off the ball. Harden has shot 39.3 percent on catch-and-shoot 3’s over the past six-plus seasons.

This is 9.3 percent better than Russell Westbrook. Being a significantly better spot-up shooter lessens the likelihood of a double team and preserves floor spacing because teams are worried about surrendering an open 3.

With Russell Westbrook as the primary ball-handler, Houston doesn’t have to make any changes to their offense as he likes to isolate almost as much as Harden. Westbrook has been inside the top 10 in isolation possessions per game over the past three seasons as he has averaged 5.43 per game.

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In conclusion, if Russell Westbrook continues to play off the ball, teams will keep leaving him open to double team James Harden causing the experiment to fail.

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