Exploring whether the Houston Rockets can solve the James Harden double-team strategy that many teams will likely resort to
After scoring 23 points in the first half against the Portland Trail Blazers, and on the heels of a historic seven-game scoring binge, coach Terry Stotts tried a desperate yet effective strategy to rain on James Harden’s parade.
The Blazers sent a second defender Harden’s way as soon as he seemed primed to start his “lull you to sleep” isolation dribble game that has decimated the entire league. This basically signaled to the Rockets “we would rather have his teammates try to beat us in 4-on-3 situations than watching Harden take his man one-on-one.”
Although this approach may seem pretty rudimentary in nature, it has thrown Harden and the Rockets into a bit of a funk. He has not yet had another 40-point game since, and Houston is currently on a three-game losing streak. Since the second half against Portland, Harden has seen double teams without a pick on 53 possessions.
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The Rockets have scored 56 points on these possessions, for a 105.7 offensive rating. (For context, Harden has had a 108 offensive rating on isolations this season, after a 111 offensive rating last season).
The Warriors dynasty was largely driven by Stephen Curry forcing teams to trap him 35 feet from the floor on ball screens. This stretched opposing defenses into obliviation. Harden is receiving this kind of attention without even needing a screen. So is doubling James Harden as soon as he steps past half-court a fad that only lasts a few weeks, or is it the next evolution in how opposing teams approach guarding him?
Portland would send the second defender as Harden was in the midst of his dance, waiting for the call by Stotts. Harden has such an ungodly handle that this may be too late. The Rockets’ next three opponents (Denver, LA Clippers, Dallas) all fine-tuned this strategy by preemptively running the next closest defender at him while he still had a live dribble. The Nuggets, in particular, seemed to flummox Harden.
They varied the cadences of when exactly the second defender would arrive, and often would have apt help defender (like Paul Millsap) shaded heavily towards the nail. The next two games saw even more extreme versions of this strategy. After starting the game hot in the first quarter, the Clippers and Mavericks would send another player at him, usually as soon as he received the ball.
James Harden is a basketball supercomputer, and even a few possessions in he began developing counters. He has caught the original defender flat-footed by quickly attacking the opposite side before the double can arrive. He has also been shooting earlier in the shot clock.
Mike D’Antoni has also come up with a few ways to combat this, like setting screens higher out on the floor and having players flash towards the middle of the floor. On one play against Denver, he had Tyson Chandler set a flare screen for the player that Nuggets doubled off of. He has also been stationing P.J. Tucker on the wing so that the shooters in the corners have more gravity.
But overall, it is worrisome how much this strategy has bedeviled Houston’s offense. A team with championship aspirations should not be so singularly reliant on one player. The other players on the Rockets do not strike any kind of fear in opponents, either as shooters or ball-handlers. D’Antoni has never been one for offensive diversity, which has played a major part in his playoff downfalls. Dynamo Eric Gordon being sidelined due to knee surgery hurts them.
The crux of this entire predicament lies in the state Russell Westbrook. His skill level has deteriorated so much that defenses do view him to be efficient even when gifted with advantage situations. The Clippers helped off of him six possessions in a row at the end of the fourth quarter. As ESPN’s Zach Lowe has pointed out, he had a few seasons where he was a 35 percent catch-and-shoot player in Oklahoma City.
He needs to get back to that level so he can make teams pay for using this strategy. The amount of gravity that Harden is receiving is unprecedented, and it has thrown him and the Rockets out of rhythm. I believe that they will figure it out, but these last four games bring to light why Houston has a hard ceiling by playing this brand of basketball.