Houston Rockets
Out of the three teams on this list, the Houston Rockets have the biggest potential but the most to lose.
With a 15-7 record, Houston sits 4th in the West and are firmly in the race to be one of the top teams in the West this season. After adding star Guard Russell Westbrook to run the floor next to James Harden, the Rockets have their best look at a Western Conference title after the end of the Golden State dynasty this year.
Many believe this will be the best chance for the Rockets, being bundled out of the playoffs by the Warriors in four of the past five seasons. James Harden has been criticized for his form in the playoffs recently, so adding Westbrook allows the Rockets to have another key playmaker on the offensive floor to help ease the weight on his shoulders.
However, the early season statistics suggest the Rockets are not one of the stronger teams in the Western Conference so far despite what the standings suggest.
Averaging 120.5 points-per-game, Houston ranks second in the league for points but their efficiency is very poor. Converting on 44.5 percent of their field goal attempts is only good enough to rank 23rd in the league, with their 3-point conversion of 34.1 percent ranking a spot lower in 25th across the NBA. Their high scoring can be attributed to the Rockets’ ability to get to the free-throw line, ranking first in average FT attempts each game.
Houston also rates 22nd in assists whilst committing the 10th most turnovers across the league, much of this due to their primary ball-handlers choosing to create their own plays rather than passing the ball around to create high-quality shots.
The Rockets are not a great team defensively either, conceding seven scores of 120+ to opponents whilst only restricting two teams to less than 100 points. They rely predominantly on their offensive firepower winning a majority of their games for them but come playoffs time, it is a well-argued fact that defense wins championships in any sport.
The main factor that makes me believe that the Rockets will not win the championship is the streaky play of their superstar players: James Harden and Russell Westbrook.
The two stars joined together over the off-season when Westbrook moved out of Oklahoma City, to begin one of the league’s best dynamic duos. There was an argument that the combination would fail to work, having two dynamic ball-handlers and playmakers in the same backcourt but the pair were adamant it would be their best chance for a championship.
However, it has not been a smooth transition for the two stars in Houston.
So far, we have witnessed a decrease in consistency for Harden in particular. Through 22 games, Harden has posted eight games with a 3-point conversion rate of less than 30 percent and a field goal conversion rate of under 40 percent in the same number of games. Harden has also had nine games where he has attempted 15+ 3-point attempts, showing his desire to attempt large numbers of shots and particularly from past the 3-point line.
Westbrook has also experienced a similar decline, having a rough start to his time in Houston for the 2019-20 season. Russ has never been a fantastic 3-point shooter but is currently shooting at a career-low 21.9 percent from deep, which is extremely unreliable for a player of his caliber. He has also had seven games where he has shot less than 40 percent from the field through the early part of the season.
The climax of this inconsistency came last week in the Houston matchup with San-Antonio, when Harden and Westbrook combined for a terrible night from the floor in a double-overtime loss.
On paper it does not look too bad, combining for 69 points, 19 rebounds, and 16 assists. However, looking closer you see that they also combined for 18-68 (25%) shooting from the field. They also hit just 5-26 shots from 3-point range while combining for nine turnovers.
Had it been a good team the Rockets were playing, you could almost guarantee they would have been blown out of the water with their superstars putting up stat-lines like that.
It is this kind of streaky form that is why I believe; the Houston Rockets can not win the 2019-20 NBA championship. They will certainly have good nights where they possibly break records together but putting it together for multiple games in high situations is a completely different ball-game, one that the Rockets will struggle to figure out by the time playoffs roll around.