Miami Heat
Miami has been one of the biggest surprises to start the 2019-20 season, sitting 3rd in the East after the first portion of the season.
After completing the 2018-19 season in the 10th spot and comfortably outside the playoffs, I would defy anyone who thinks they saw this start to the season coming. With a 17-6 record, the Heat are yet to lose a game at home and have outplayed other East Conference contenders such as the Philadelphia 76ers to start the season.
After three years of relatively little success, it is a breath of fresh air to see the Heat competing again in what is shaping up to be a wide-open race for the Eastern Conference Title. Acquiring Jimmy Butler from Philadelphia over the offseason was a very handy addition with the Heat lacking a real No.1 option.
However, I believe they are the main pretenders in the East.
Through their first 23 games of the season, the Heat have faced 10 teams with a .500+ record and have only conjured up four wins from these 10 games. The victories against the Bucks, Rockets, and Raptors were all unbelievably impressive and should not be discredited, but to only have a 40 percent win rate against the better teams in the league will not be substantial enough when it comes to important moments of the season.
The Heat have also been restricted to under 100 points on four separate occasions so far this season. This stat may be exaggerated a little when comparing to a team like Milwaukee, who are yet to score under 100 this season, but it is the fashion in which Miami is restricted that is concerning.
All four of their scores under 100 points have led to blowout losses of 15 points or more with three of these four scores actually being less than 90 points. This sort of inconsistency is okay for a young team and you would almost expect it, but if they want to be serious contenders this season then performances as bad as those are unacceptable.
Another factor hindering Miami is their poor form on the road. With a 7-6 record in all their road games so far this season, the Heat are yet to defeat a team with a winning record away from home. Losses against the likes of Denver and the Lakers are understandable but again, for them to be legitimate contenders they need to have the ability to win big games on the road.
The final factor that I believe makes the Heat pretenders is their lack of a standout No.1 player.
Jimmy Butler is clearly their main man after relocating to Miami over the offseason, however, he is not standing out enough to be a superstar caliber player. The Heat relies on solid contributions from many of their players with seven different players currently averaging over 10 points-per-game. This is actually a great statistic for the Heat, showing they have great depth and ability with players such as Dragic and Herro providing reliable support off the bench.
But in big games and big moments such as Conference Final games or NBA Finals matchups, the great teams always have a reliable superstar they can turn to for a clutch bucket or a big-time stop on defense. Signs were shown when Herro landed a clutch 3-pointer blow to beat the Bulls in overtime on Sunday, but it came after two missed shots and two offensive rebounds which will not be allowed against better sides.
Last year it was Kawhi Leonard for the Raptors, who made the major plays when Toronto needed them most on their way to a championship. In the years gone by, obviously the Warriors had an abundance of options with the likes of Curry, Thompson, and Durant, but previously we had seen the plays that made LeBron James the champion he is and similar when talking about Kobe Bryant.
For me, Miami does not have that key player who can spark big runs for the team and clutch up when necessary. Yes, Jimmy Butler has been a great player for a number of years and was a key piece of the puzzle for Philadelphia last season, but I do not believe he is the man to carry the Heat when they need that big play.
I love what Miami has done through the first portion of this season but unfortunately, I just can’t see them being true contenders for the Eastern Conference when the playoffs roll around.