With or without Victor Oladipo, the Indiana Pacers are good

The Indiana Pacers have started the season 18-9, despite the absence of their star Victor Oladipo. With his return looming, can they get even better?

As the New Year approaches and we hit a third of the way through the NBA season, certain themes are starting to solidify themselves. We’re starting to get a big enough sample size to judge whether things are real or not. And one thing that’s certain is the Indiana Pacers are good.

There were question marks about this team coming into the season. Victor Oladipo, their star, a two-time All-Star who was Third Team All NBA, All-Defense, and the Most Improved Player in 2017-18 has been out to start the season with no set date for return. Their newly acquired free-agent Malcolm Brogdon was great as the third or fourth option on the Milwaukee Bucks, but how would he operate as the lead man while Oladipo was out? Could the big man duo of Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner co-exist?

And yet, here they are 27 games into the season at 18-9, sixth place in the Eastern Conference sporting a 4.3 point differential. No, sixth in the lesser conference doesn’t sound like anything special, but the top of the East is even better than expected and as we discussed, they’ve yet to have their best player suit up.

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They won’t “wow” you on offense, ranking 14th in the league in offensive rating at 108.3 but they’re good enough on defense, 7th in defensive rating at 104.1, to make up for their league-average offense. They don’t turn the ball over, ranking 7th in turnover percentage and assist/turnover ratio, rank about league average in True Shooting and Effective Field Goal and don’t give up many second-chance points, ranking just outside the top 10 in defensive rebound rate.

They beat the teams they’re supposed to, 14-5 against teams with a record of .500 or below. And they hold their own against good teams with 4-4 record against .500 or greater teams. They’re simply solid, and there’s room for growth.

Their bench has been better lately but hasn’t been great overall. The five-man group of Aaron Holiday, T.J. McConnell, Justin Holiday, Doug McDermott, and Goga Bitadze has a net rating of -11.7 points, albeit in a small sample. Sub in Sabonis for Bitadze with that same unit and their net rating swings 21.4 points positively to +9.7. That’s more of an indictment on how good Sabonis has been, but they can manage with a starter or two on the floor.

Speaking of starters, that’s where they really shine. Their five-man starting unit of Brogdon, Jeremy Lamb, TJ Warren, Sabonis, and Turner are blitzing teams for 117.6 points per 100 possessions according to Cleaning the Glass, resulting in a net rating of +14.2 which ranks in the 85th percentile among five-man units.

Brogdon is the engine and he’s been more than even the Pacers thought they were getting. He’s playmaking at a career-high level resulting in tidy 7.7 assists per game, his usage rate is 30.7, his efficiency from the field and the 3-point line have sunk a bit but his true shooting percentage is still 59 percent, and he’s getting to the free-throw line a career-high 30 percent of the time. His defense has slipped slightly but he’s still a net even according to defensive box plus-minus while seamlessly guarding three different positions. All this results in him holding a +4.4 net rating while on the floor.

Sabonis has been the other pleasant surprise. He was good last year and there was no reason to expect regression, but the progression isn’t always linear and similar numbers as last year wasn’t out of the question. So much for that. The Pacers score seven points per 100 possessions more with him on the floor, allow 4.4 points less per 100 possessions for a net rating of +11.4 points per 100 possessions.

He cleans up everything on the glass ranking 4th in the NBA in rebounds per game (13.4), 7th in rebound percentage and 6th in defensive rebound percentage. He’s 20th in the NBA in defensive rating (101.6), and oh, he’s an excellent passing big man averaging almost four assists per game.

The real question for this team though, is when will Oladipo return and what level will he be? Can they make a real run, crash the party of the Easts, and solidify contender status should he return to pre-injury form? His injury is odd, a ruptured quad tendon suffered January of last season. He was expected to miss a calendar year and he’s recently starting practicing with the Pacers G-League affiliate, though there’s still no timetable for return.

This team could be scary should peak Oladipo return. One of Lamb or Warren would move to the bench, probably Lamb, strengthening a weakness that’s quickly becoming less of one. They could close games with two playmakers and be plush with shooting should said lineup feature Lamb. Oladipo, Brogdon, and whichever wing is on the floor can switch everything. The floor would be more spread for the Sabonis/Turner high low action to work.

That duo of Sabonis and Turner might be the key, though. Can they co-exist and even thrive? In theory, it should work. Sabonis can knock down the occasional mid-range but is by no means a stretch-4. Turner, on the other hand, loves to operate on the perimeter on offense, while shutting off everything at the rim on defense. This means Sabonis doesn’t have to worry about rim protection and can use his nimble feet and massive size to cut off lanes to and around the paint. But the results are at times mixed. They’re better with Sabonis solo than Turner. Some of that could be lineup based.

I didn’t even mention Coach Nate McMillan, one of the more underrated coaches in the league. They’ve exceeded expectations every year under his tutelage. He gets the most out of what he has, similar to what Terry Stotts does for Portland in the West (maybe not so much this year, but you get it).

This team is good. Not for an Eastern Conference team, no caveats, just good. There’s potential they can get even better. That should scare the rest of the Eastern Conference. There’s a world where they can make a run to the Eastern Conference Finals should Oladipo return healthy. Yeah, I said it. Take notice of the Indiana Pacers. Or don’t. I get a feeling they like it more this way.