NBA Monthly Roundup: 3 December takeaways and 3 January predictions
Breaking down what transpired in the NBA in December and making a few predictions for what we believe will happen in the month of January
Happy New Year everyone and welcome to 2020. I also want to welcome the “NBA doesn’t start until Christmas” crowd. We’re happy to have you on board.
Christmas day games and the beginning of trade season in December are always safe bets to provide a little extra juice to the league. So let’s take a look back at an eventful December, look forward to an interesting January, and distract ourselves from all of the work waiting for us when we get back from our holiday vacations.
December Takeaway: The Clippers’ best is better than anyone else’s best
It’s a phrase that is often brought up in college basketball before the NCAA tournament, right after the analysts compare blind resumes ad nauseam on live television – how good is *insert team name here*’s best?
The question really cuts through the total body of work and tries to evaluate one thing: If every team played their best possible game, who would win? Applying this to the NBA after roughly 35 games of data to evaluate – it’s the Clippers.
Just to set the table here, the only teams that have a realistic chance to win the NBA Finals are the Lakers, Clippers, and Bucks. You could argue for the 76ers if you want to, but I won’t until they show more consistency. But until something changes it’s a three-team race that the Clippers are uniquely constructed to win with their matchups.
I would argue the Lakers vs. Clippers Christmas day game was a little fluky – Paul George was pretty awful (5-18 shooting), LeBron James couldn’t make even a wide-open jumper (2-12 from 3), and Anthony Davis wasn’t nearly as dominant offensively as he can be against the Clippers front line (8-17, 6 rebounds). All of that being said, there are still some themes that can be extrapolated based on this matchup.
Whether it was by design or not, the Clippers are perfectly built to defend LeBron James in a way that no other team has been able to do since he started winning championships in 2012.
There aren’t two players in the entire NBA better suited to guard LeBron than Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, who of course happen to play on the same team. Add in a few possessions of Patrick Beverley and even Moe Harkless and you have a team that can constantly give LeBron a lot of tough looks. They force him to work hard for every shot which is really all you can do against him.
On the other side of the floor, the Clippers’ wings don’t face nearly the same defensive presence from their opponents. Despite a heightened focus on that end, LeBron James is no longer in his defensive prime and checking Leonard/George for 40 minutes per night in a long playoff series seems like a lot to ask from him at this point. Further, Danny Green and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope can be called upon for help but aren’t capable of really slowing either of Clippers’ star wings down for an extended time.
There were a few possessions where Anthony Davis guarded Kawhi Leonard which is an option for the Lakers, but the Clippers can pretty easily get a switch away from Davis if they want to.
Looking to the other side of the league, the Clippers could do similar things to the Bucks if they were to meet in the NBA Finals. Giannis Antetokounmpo is great and could very well win another MVP this season, but Kawhi Leonard has his number. Per ESPN’s Kirk Goldsberry, last season Kawhi was by far the most effective defender vs Giannis when you look at points per 100 possessions (15.9). Maybe Giannis can figure something out this time around, but until we see that we have to give Kawhi and the Clippers the benefit of the doubt.
Don’t expect the Clippers to be the top seed or win every game you think they should during the regular season – they won’t. But when the stakes are the highest and every team plays their best basketball, there shouldn’t be any doubt that the Clippers best is better than anyone else’s.