NBA Roundup: 3 January takeaways, 3 February predictions

January Takeaway – Don’t press the panic button on the Rockets just yet

Losers of seven of their last 12, something is off with the Rockets right now and the source of their problems comes from the most unlikely of suspects – James Harden.

And that’s exactly why they shouldn’t panic.

As much as I’m sure the Rockets would love to have Harden’s running mate and 2020 All-Star *eye roll*, Russell Westbrook, be able to take games over and win during Harden’s bad nights, it’s not going to happen. The team goes as Harden goes and when you build the entire eco-system around one player then you have to accept that you’re probably going to lose when he doesn’t play well.

Harden has missed two games during this shaky 11 game stretch (1 win, 1 loss). But in those nine games, he’s been dreadful in just about everything. Per NBA.com, in those games, Harden is averaging 24.8/6.4/5.7. Those are down from the 35.7/6.2/7.2 that he’s averaged over the course of the season, but not awful at face value. Until you look at his shooting percentages…then you reach full awful. During those nine games, Harden is shooting 34 percent overall and 23 percent from 3. A glaring drop from the 43.6 percent/35.5 percent splits that he’s held all season.

It gets even worse when you break down his performance in wins versus losses. In the three wins during this nine-game Harden anomaly he’s shooting 39.5 percent overall and nearly 35 percent from 3. Those aren’t great, but they’re relatively close to his season averages.

In the six losses on the other hand…not so much. In those games, he’s shooting 32 percent overall and 19 percent (!) from 3. In those six games, he’s made a full transformation from league MVP to the guy no one wants on their pickup team.

The splits have been exacerbated by this 9 game stretch, but the theme of Harden playing horribly in their losses has been going strong all season. If you look at the total body of work this year, Harden is shooting 47 percent overall and 41.7 percent from 3 in wins against 37 percent overall and 25 percent from 3 in losses (again, all splits are from NBA.com).

I know I just vomited numbers all over you there but they all come back to the same point – the Rockets can’t win if Harden plays poorly. But the bright side is this – James Harden didn’t just forget how to play basketball so I don’t think there is anything to worry about. Harden will get back on track after the All-Star break which means so will the Rockets.

James Harden makes this team go. If you still believe in him, you have to believe in the Rockets too.